Posted on 11/23/2020 8:11:26 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Lockdowns are back on in Europe and are making a quick comeback in the US as well. Spain, the UK, Belgium, and France are back in full lockdown mode, although a multitude of restrictions on movement within each country remained in place even when full lockdowns were ended over the summer.
In France, for instance, one now “need[s] a certificate to move around,” yet in spite of long maintaining some of the continent’s most stringent lockdown and social distancing measures, total deaths per million are rapidly accelerating, to the point that France is likely to soon join other countries with harsh lockdowns in having among the worst rates of deaths per million in the world. Moreover, eastern Europe, which was once lauded for locking down strictly and early, is quickly finding that lockdowns aren’t likely to suppress total deaths there, either. The Czech Republic is seeing some of the worst growth in covid deaths worldwide, while the rest of the region is seeing similar growth, albeit to a less dramatic extent (so far).
This is not what was sold to the public. Rather, politicians and their allies in the "public health" bureaucracies insisted that lockdowns would substantially reduce total deaths in countries that imposed them. Countries that failed to lock down would, on the other hand, experience runaway contagion with total Covid deaths per million orders of magnitude higher than those seen in countries that didn't lock down.
That's not what happened.
Sweden, for instance, has long been denounced by politicians and media pundits for failing to embrace the methods of the French and the Spaniards. Many of these nations (i.e., Spain and the UK) have long had total Covid death per million well in excess of the Swedes. And now, other nations are surging (i.e., France and Czechia and the Netherlands) and will all likely soon be much higher than Swedish levels. (It might also be noted that Spain, the UK, France, Czechia, and Italy are now all seeing growth in Covid deaths at rates above that reported by the United States.)
Of course, some supporters of lockdowns are likely to continue insisting that lockdowns clearly work to suppress total deaths because a handful of small countries near Sweden (i.e., Norway, Denmark, and Finland) have reported relatively few covid deaths. While this certainly may indicate there are factors at work in these countries that help keep covid mortality numbers lower, the fact remains that experience shows countries like Norway, Denmark, and Finland are outliers when compared to most of western Europe.
[Read More: "The Evidence Keeps Piling up: Lockdowns Don’t Work"]
This isn’t exactly shocking. As early as July, studies were already beginning to show that lockdowns didn’t actually suppress total mortality. This one in The Lancet, for example, concludes,
government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality.
And in 2006, an extensive study in Biosecurity and Bioterrorism reported: "There are no historical observations or scientific studies that support the confinement by quarantine of groups of possibly infected people for extended periods" to slow the spread of influenza. No evidence has been offered for why this might be true of flu, but not true of Covid. Moreover, in a recent report from JPMorgan, Marko Kolanovic concluded that “re-opening did not change the course of the pandemic” and that “While we often hear that lockdowns are driven by scientific models, and that there is an exact relationship between the level of economic activity and the spread of [the] virus—this is not supported by the data.” Overall, evidence backing the lockdown theory has simply failed to materialize.
Indeed, as Swedish authorities have long claimed, the experience points toward an outcome in which most countries will end up with similar total deaths per million regardless of lockdown policy.1 This looks more likely by the day. As noted by Dr. Gilbert Berdine here at mises.org, “The data suggest that lockdowns have not prevented any deaths from covid-19. At best, lockdowns have deferred death for a short time, but they cannot possibly be continued for the long term.” This, of course, is why even the WHO does not recommend lockdowns except as a very short term and ad hoc measure. The side effects of the lockdowns themselves are too dangerous.
[Read More: "Even WHO Officials Now Admit Lockdowns Are Extreme Policies with Disastrous Results"]
We already know that isolation, unemployment, and other social ills caused by lockdowns affect both physical and mental health. But we also know that lockdowns lead to deaths from untreated medical conditions. Moreover, government health experts in many cases have callously cut off the elderly from all their social and family support. The Associated Press estimates that for “every two COVID-19 victims in long-term care, there is another who died prematurely of other causes.” Many of these deaths are brought on by neglect and isolation caused by state-mandated lockdown policies.
But where would we find evidence of these deaths in the aggregate? Unfortunately, regimes spend very little time counting them. Rather, regimes often only record events in ways that help the regime. While they are careful to count as many covid cases and deaths as possible in big bright numbers reported daily by government officials, deaths caused by lockdowns are generally ignored.
Eventually, the only way to guess the impact of these other deaths will be through the “excess mortality” data. Excess mortality—using a definition now generally used in the media and by government officials—occurs when total mortality during a time period exceeds the average mortality experienced over the past five years.
Some initial reports have suggested that covid deaths comprise only around 70 percent of excess deaths (see here and here). Naturally, lockdown advocates claim that this shows covid deaths are being undercounted, and that covid deaths should be assumed to account for virtually all excess deaths. This is only conjecture.
In any case, we find, not surprisingly, that excess mortality in Sweden has been lower this year compared to many other western European countries with harsh lockdowns. For example, through October the average number of deaths for 2015–19 in Sweden was 72,972. In 2020, the total deaths for the same period was 76,375. That’s an increase of 4.6 percent.
Likewise, in France, 2020’s total excess mortality is up 6.4 percent. It’s up 12.7 percent in England and Wales, up 16 percent in Italy, and up 17 percent in Spain.
How much of this excess mortality in lockdown countries is attributable to the lockdowns themselves? For now that’s still unknown. But, as Dr. Berdine writes:
It seems likely that one will not have to even compare economic deprivation with loss of life, as the final death toll following authoritarian lockdowns will most likely exceed the deaths from letting people choose how to manage their own risk. After taking the unprecedented economic depression into account, history will likely judge these lockdowns to be the greatest policy error of this generation.
Pffft, don’t be ridiculous. Facts don’t matter, this is the age of feelings.
Lockdowns make the political class FEEL powerful, and FEEL like they’re doing something.
Lockdowns make the sheep FEEL safe, and FEEL like their leaders, (because they are followers), are in control.
France had some of the strictest mask measures also.
The left took full advantage of the spread of this disease to turn the election their way. Don’t think for one minute that they are going to let go of this goose that lays the golden eggs. They are going to use this disease to impose further restrictions on our liberty and freedom of thought.
They want us begging to be protected, which the government promises to do if we only trust them.
You and I know that putting trust in government is like trusting the devil.
France had some of the strictest mask measures also
Yup, masks and lockdowns IMO have very little effect on the virus spread. They are feel good measures.
we didn't flatten the curve we lengthen it....
I worked in healthcare so I know its real....
Its flu season again.
Apparently Covid not only solved heart attacks and cancer but it has eliminated the flu... and freedom.
If we just sacrifice children to moloch, the virus will be removed.
It’s all religious thinking - they’re not following science or rational thought. It’s just that the book says contagion = people together so lockdown = cure.
Unless, of course, you’re marching for communism - then you’re immune.
The rates began falling in both countries 2 weeks ago, along with the rest of Europe.
This article is misleading, to say the least.
Yes, the numbers in Czechia have been bad, but the 7-day moving average of infections has gone down by about 50 % since the beginning of the lockdown and the number of deaths is coming down as well (with the usual 10 to 14 days delay). Same thing in France. So no, the lockdowns did not fail.
Put a mask on everyone that doesn’t have covid, and you’ve done exactly what?
Lockdown people who aren’t sick and you’ve done what?
Science says that people without symptoms don’t spread disease, so what’s the point? Control? Destruction of small business so that socialism/communism can take over?
WHAT PEOPLE HAVE IS PROBABLY THE VARIOUS COLLECTIONS OF RHINO AND CORONA VIRUSES THAT ARE ALWAYS SEEN BETWEEN NOVEMBER AND MARCH.
They do not have a reliable test for viruses. They have NEVER had one. Viruses are so small they can only be seen through an electron microscope. The PCR test, the one used right now to diagnose, is only able to see that you have DNA or RNA similar to a coronavirus, but it cannot specifically tell you what you have is the COVID.
If you remember your doctor telling you when you went to see him for a cold or flu, he would give you an antibiotic and tell you, "if you are better in three to five days then what you have is a bacteria. If you are not better then you have a virus and you're just going to have to let it pass through your system."
Is an irrational fear being pumped up with regard to the common cold? I think so.
Rhetorical questions:
If the first lockdown worked, why the second?
If the first lockdown did NOT work, why the second?
The disease is real, the deaths are real, and the responses have been a complete and utter failure. Worse than simply failing to control the spread, these lockdowns have done massive economic damage. That isn’t just an academic matter; that damage translates to killing small businesses, driving families into poverty, and setting back national progress for years or even decades. The gaps in education are going to have ripple effects for a long, long time. The poverty these responses have caused will similarly echo through society for a generation at least. And the debt taken on by governments will be seriously damaging as well.
In the meantime, how many governments have failed to protect the most vulnerable through this? Where are the measures to protect elderly care facilities? Hospitals? Grocery stores? Other places where the vulnerable are frequently found? Where are the resources to assist with rapid detection and containment in places where spread happens quickly and has deadly consequences?
Instead we get people like Governor Cuomo who forces nursing homes to accept known-infected patients. There should be indictments coming down from this; not more lockdowns.
That's not true at all. We have tests for all kinds of viruses, including Influenza Virus, poliovirus, smallpox (which is checked for by looking for the antibodies produced by the body), and many others. These tests have been available for decades and work just fine.
"The PCR test, the one used right now to diagnose, is only able to see that you have DNA or RNA similar to a coronavirus, but it cannot specifically tell you what you have is the COVID."
That isn't true at all. The PCR test for COVID-19 looks for specific genetic sequences only found in SARS-CoV-2. It is absolutely specific to SARS-CoV-2 and will NOT trigger on any other virus, including SARS-CoV-1 (SARS2003).
"If you remember your doctor telling you when you went to see him for a cold or flu, he would give you an antibiotic and tell you, "if you are better in three to five days then what you have is a bacteria. If you are not better then you have a virus and you're just going to have to let it pass through your system.""
It's less common now to give out antibiotics for things that are likely viral infections. However, you CAN get tested for flu and in fact there have been 122,615 flu tests performed in the US since September 27th with 319 positive tests split evenly between Influenza A and Influenza B thus far.
Clearly, this writer is not a "journalist"... or at the very least, he didn't get the memo from the leftists.
Certain people are vulnerable. These graphs show it will reach all of them eventually.
Everyone dies, so you cannot save lives indefinitely. But if you were to calculate months of lives extended, a statistic you will find nowhere, the US beats just about every European country except the Czech Republic.
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