Posted on 10/31/2020 12:59:16 PM PDT by Bogle
I'm no genius and would appreciate help with my math. Essentially, I'm wanting to separate co-morbidity deaths from covid-19 deaths in an unbiased way. If we work with the following numbers, can we determine a true[er] number of Covid-19 deaths?
A=Reported number* of flu fatalities;
B=Reported number* of cancer fatalities;
C=Reported number* of pneumonia/emphysema/COPD fatalities;
D=Reported 2020 number** of flu fatalities.
E=Reported 2020 number** of cancer fatalities.
F=Reported 2020 number** of pneumonia/emphysema/COPD fatalities
G=A+B+C
H=D+E+F
If G>H, then I=G-H
I=The number of fatalities improperly attributed to Covid 19
J= Reported number** of covid-19 fatalities.
K=J-I
K=Adjusted number of total covid-19 fatalities.
*MARCH-THRU-OCTOBER AVERAGE OVER THE PREVIOUS 3 YEARS (i.e., 2017-2019).
**2020 DEATHS ONLY FOR MARCH THRU OCTOBER
Also, am I correctly identifying the medical conditions that would most likely be misattributed to Covid?
Also, I'd appreciate it if anyone could send me a link to similar adjustments/corrections that you've seen elsewhere.
Perhaps Type 2 diabetes as a comorbidity is even more powerful than cancer. Depending on the type of cancer
Thank you VERY much. And I’m going to go ahead and thank in advance anyone who has similar suggestions/input.
CDC — Less than 6% of the deaths were covid alone .
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3898863/posts
The left worries about virus cases (how many are false positive?) but ignore the deaths because the latter is too low to create panic..
In most cases it seems that Covid accelerates the inevitable, but that is the problem with it, more so than the relatively few cases where it kills more or less exclusively. It shortens life, by a few days, or months or years.
Death is death. Best to evaluate it by its effect on the overall mortality rate. That is based on civil records, where dead is dead, and no subjective medical judgment is needed.
If you used that same criteria for cancer, you could say there are virtually no cancer deaths too.
There are two lines filled out on a death certificate for cause of death. One is the immediate cause of death. For cancer, this is often multiple organ failure. Essentially, immediate cause of death is the final thing that happened at the point of death. The other line filled out is the underlying cause of death. That is the disease or injury which initiated the chain of events leading to death.
It is up to the individual filling out the death certificate to list the chain of events (using their best professional medical opinion) from beginning to end. For COVID-19, this might look like “patient contracted COVID-19, suffered significant damage to epithelial cells in the lungs, opportunistic secondary infection with pneumonia set in, Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome developed, patient died due to lung failure and oxygen deprivation.
COVID-19 is not the only thing listed on that death certificate, but clearly the chain of events begins with COVID-19. What the CDC said was that fewer than 6% of death certificates only listed COVID-19. That should actually be close to 0% since virtually no one just gets COVID-19 and then suddenly dies. Other things happen along that path.
Yes, there is a financial incentive to write up “death with covid” as “death by covid”. Thus, 50,000 heart attack deaths with covid are counted as deaths by covid, even though there is scant evidence that covid causes heart disease or heart attacks. If one had the flu and died of a heart attack it wouldn’t be “death by flu” it would be “death by cardiac arrest”. This is deliberate, instituted by the administrative state players at federal and state level, to hype up covid fears and carry out their various political agendas at price of about $9,000 extra per case to hospitals that admit covid patients.
Federal Medicare pays a $13,000 bonus if the hospital admins paperwork says that covid was involved.... If the paperwork says that a ventilator was involved the hospital admins. get an extra $39,000..
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3898649/posts?page=92#92
“This one is helpful as well:”
Not really helpful yet in that it looks only at the height of the epidemic in the hardest hit city in the world and the hardest hit states during the peak of the spring outbreak in these limited localities.
Now post the same for other states next to these states for the same time or any month since June.
Do that and it will be very helpful.
“CDC — Less than 6% of the deaths were covid alone .”
For CCP-19. For the common flu? 3.75% from “just” the flu. Also sourced from the CDC.
Also, the 6% number is bogus for a couple of reasons. One, it’s old. That number has gone up. Two, they are counting using the flu model, but with the flu, pneumonia symptoms are the result of a secondary infection, nd for CCP-19 pneumonia symptoms are a direct symptom. So they are counting many CCP-19 from-deaths as with-deaths.
As a prior poster said, the logical way to calculate and get past all the tinfoil is to look at excess deaths YOY. That takes all the conspiracy theories off the table.
Approximately 236,000 dead from 9.4 million confirmed cases. 2.5%. Compared to the rest of the world - at least the parts that are not lying their asses off like China - that’s pretty good. But it is still 25 times the common flu. And what would the numbers be is Trump hadn’t stopped travel from China and Europe? What would they be without the mitigation?
Anybody can play games with statistics. For example, the way CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is calculated, since only about 6.28 million cases have resolved (there are still over 3 million active cases), the CFR is 3.7% which means we should expect another 110,000 dead from just the currently active cases. Or we could say that since only 6 million have recovered out of 9.4 million cases, the recovery rate is only about 64%. Gasp! Or we could say that only 236,000 have died out of 330 million! That’s well under the flu kill rate of 0.1%. But 330 million haven’t caught it, and the goal of all the mitigation is to make sure that the other 320-odd million people that haven’t caught CCP-19 don’t catch it. And the flu doesn’t infect 330 million people every year. We have some herd immunity from prior years (not so with CCP-19, though) and we have a sometimes-effective vaccine (again, not so with CCP-19). Only about 10-20% catch the flu in any year, including asymptomatic cases.
The only reason the left doesn’t harp on the deaths more is that doing so would expose the various governors that shoved infected people into old-folks homes and caused a lot of those deaths. Every time they try to pin it on Trump he says something along the lines of “Cuomo was told not to put those cases in rest homes and he did it anyway and killed a bunch of people.” That shuts them right down.
Originally the positivity rate from testing was around 10%. 1 in 10 tested tested positive. Now it’s under 7%, 1 in 15. That means our testing is getting ahead of the infection rate. That is due to mitigation, which includes masks, hand sanitizer and aggressive contact tracing. We’re doing much better than most countries, as the President says. We should keep it up.
Check the graphic just above this post for other states. Every state in the nation is seeing excess deaths. Some more than others. In total, we’ve seen around 280,000 excess deaths this year so far. The threshold for what’s considered excess comes from taking the previous 5 years’ average and stretching it a few percentage points to account for normal variation.
We’ve been beyond that threshold - nationally - every single week since March. (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)
The Left is trying to equate cases with deaths in the minds of the people.
All I want to know is the TOTAL deaths to this date 2020 as compared to TOTAL deaths to this date 2019 and 2018. I would think that 2020 would have a couple of hundred thousand more.
“Every state in the nation is seeing excess deaths. Some more than others.”
Who says we’re not?
Some a lot more than others.
Show the graphs I described.
You’ve shown the worst of the worst from six months ago.
It skews perspective of what has happened in other places and doesn’t show the current situation.
Forget the rest of the country and the world and whatever
This is the only question you need to ask yourself
How many people do you know personally who have either been hospitalized or heaven forbid. , killed by COVID-19?
Nine months into this thing , I’m still at zero
You should probably ask some of the doctors here. They’ve definitely seen some.
One early in the pandemic, pregnant, as a precaution. Home quickly. No problems.
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