Posted on 10/28/2020 6:15:30 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
Two-and-a-half weeks before the 2016 presidential election, GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump trailed behind Democrat Hillary Clinton by an average of 6% in national polls, a statistic that buoyed Clinton supporters, yet failed to rattle diehard supporters of Trump...
(Excerpt) Read more at snopes.com ...
The more they spend on advertising the more they can skim off the top. Bernie set up his family as advertising consultants and skimmed off over 10% of his entire budget.
All “legit” campaign expenses.
No, he won Minnesota
Mondale lost in 49 states to Reagan (all but Minnesota.) Mondale lost Minnesota to Norm Coleman in the Senate.
Mondale has lost an election in ALL 50 states.
At his last campaign appearance, Jimmuh signed off with the let's win message, but his voice cracked. It was noted in retrospect that he probably was seeing the real polling (the stuff the parties use is much better than the published stuff) and they'd known they were behind for probably weeks.
In 1972, McGovern carried Massachusetts. Nixon had a 49 state sweep.
There are no “big moves”. Trump was ahead the whole time. Polls are heavily weighted towards Democrats to depress Republicans. Now a week out they try to regain cred.
The Harris Survey
For Release: Monday k~, January 24th, 1983 1983 #7
ISSN 0273-1037
MONDALE LEADS REAGAN IN TRIAL HEAT FOR THE PRESIDENCY
By Louis Harris
In a trial heat for the 1984 presidential election, former Vice President Walter Mondale is now leading President Ronald Reagan by a 53-44 percent margin. This is the first time in modern political history that an incumbent president has run behind his potential opponent so early in his term. Last April, Mondale and Reagan finished in a 48-48 percent dead heat.
This latest Harris Survey, taken by telephone between January 2nd and 5th among a cross section of 891 likely voters screened from a larger cross section of 1,254 adults nationwide, amply demonstrates just how much President Reagan has slipped. Indeed, not only has the President fallen behind among those Democratic groups where he made a strong showing in 1980, but also he is experiencing some major losses in his 1980 majority base:
—Regionally, the most decisive shifts have taken place in the Midwest, traditionally Republican, and in the West, previously viewed as Reagan country. The President now trails Mondale in the West by 56-41 percent, a complete turnaround from the 53-37 percent margin by which he swept that region in 1980. In the Midwest, Mondale now leads by 53-43 percent, another big shift from the 49-40 percent margin the President held in the last election. In the East, where Reagan won a narrow 45-42 percent plurality in 1980, he is now behind Mondale by 12 points, 54-42 percent. The South is the only region where the results are close: Mondale now holds a narrow 49-48 percent edge in the region where Reagan had a 50-44 percent plurality in 1980.
—A startling change has occurred in the suburbs, where Mondale now leads Reagan by 50-46 percent. The President won the suburbs in a three-way race in 1980 by a decisive 50-39 percent. It is virtually impossible for any Republican to win the White House without winning the suburban vote by at least 8 points. In the traditionally Demo cratic big cities, Mondale holds a commanding 63-35 percent majority, dramatically better than the 47-42 percent plurality held by Jimmy Carter in 1980. Among rural voters, Reagan and Mondale are tied at 49 percent. In the small towns, however, the President is holding on to a 51-42 percent lead.
—By political philosophy, President Reagan wins among conservatives by 59-38 percent, but this is still well below the 67-28 percent majority he held in 1980.
Among middle of the road voters, a group Reagan carried by 47-41 percent in the last presidential election, he now trails Mondale by 53-43 percent. Liberals prefer Mondale, not unexpectedly, by 79-20 percent. Most significant now is the fact that any moderate to conservative coalition seems to have disappeared, as conservatives have isolated them selves from the broad middle of the electorate.
—Among men, Reagan wins by 52-46 percent; among women, Mondale soars to a 58-37 percent lead. If the election had been held this month, Mondale would owe his victory to the strong anti-Reagan sentiments of women.
—Among union members, Mondale defeats Reagan by 60-37 percent, a 23 point margin, close to a normal Democratic majority. In 1980, Reagan lost the union vote by only 9 points in a three-way race, 51-40 percent.
—As expected, the President would win the Republican vote, but his current 79-16 percent margin is considerably lower than the 85-9 percent by which he won that vote in the last election. Mondale sweeps the Democratic vote by 82-17 percent, a much stronger showing than the 69-23 percent held by Carter in 1980. Among political independents,
nowadays likely true.....
but just metaphysically, and I know it’s inconceivable for us here at FR to get our heads around this, but....I do think there are a fair number of voters who, incredibly, wait till the last week to decide. In that regard, I do think the “breaking of the undecideds” is a real thing.
Now that said.....maybe not this time, because this election is quite literally like none other. There has never ever been an election like this. So perhaps there ain’t no undecideds. The only indecision was last few months as previous non-voters got registered, went to Trump rallies, and are voting in big numbers now and on election day!
lol, it’s over! President Reagan is doomed! LOLOLOLOL
I guess you would say “Carter had a 95% chance of winning.”
. . . but not 55-45 but rather 50-40-10.Even then there were Republicans voting independent rather than for the best president of their lifetimes.
good ‘ole john anderson!
Polls underestimated the Reagan Democrats. And Reagan also ran against a 3rd Party GOP candidate as well.
great point, Reagan Democrats had not yet been identified! LOTS of people voted Carter 76 but Reagan 80.
Good news on the “breaking of the undecideds”.
They will almost always choose the known (incumbent) over the unknown (challenger).
The mass media “experts” are not going to talk about that basic fact that is well known among folks who pay attention to this stuff.
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