Early vote by party affiliation -- one week out before election

twitter ^ | 10/26/2020 | Oblivion2elect1

[ThinkingBuddha]

NBC current

AZ: 42D-34R CO: 38D-26R FL: 43D-36R GA: 50R-43D IA: 51D-31R MI: 41R-39D NC: 40D-30R NV: 42D-35R OH: 48R-39D PA: 71D-20R VA: 50D-37R WI: 42R-36D TX 18: 53R-43D TX 20: 53R-37D

[BlueStateRightist]

Like most presentations of EV data, a lot of numbers without context. Therefore, very little meaning.

[CatOwner]

PA: 71D-20R

Hard to see the positive in this breakout. No other breakout had a party reaching 60%.

[Red Badger]

AZ: 42D-34R

CO: 38D-26R

FL: 43D-36R

GA: 50R-43D

IA: 51D-31R

MI: 41R-39D

NC: 40D-30R

NV: 42D-35R

OH: 48R-39D

PA: 71D-20R

VA: 50D-37R

WI: 42R-36D

TX 18: 53R-43D

TX 20: 53R-37D

[entropy12]

Or comparison with past trends. It is like watching a horse race around the first turn. The horse leading around the first turn seldom wins at finish line.

[ThinkingBuddha]

Please help me understand these numbers. Does it look bad or good? I presume it appears bad compared to 2016, because the rats have pushed vote-by-mail and patriots have just started with early voting; so 2016 to 2020 is apples to oranges?

[hollywood12345]

The most important factor is super voters and regular voters how much of that is used up...Because those people come to both matter what and if they’re all super voters or regular voters it doesn’t mean much they’re just about to head of time

[CaptainMorgantown]

“Hard to see the positive in this breakout. No other breakout had a party reaching 60%.”

True but I believe in-person in Pennsylvania may be very small numbers. They have a process called “in-person absentee ballots”, which may be where these numbers come from.

[CatOwner]

Valid point, which is what others are alluding to. A 70/20 breakout with 25,000 votes isn’t saying much. A 55/35 breakout with 500,000 votes is a different matter.

[Professional]

You’re not allowed to know who wins, until the establishment and its sponsors says so.

In the meantime, keep clicking and...have a coke and a smile, eat at Burger King, buy a Tesla, and use Google as your browser, and see these jaw dropping pics that are vintage and are very rare...

[Wallace T.]

Texas 18 is inner city Houston, mainly minority, represented by Sheila Jackson Lee since 1995. Ditto for Texas 20, mostly Hispanic and represented by Joaquin Castro since 2003 and Henry Gonzalez, father and son, from 1961 to 2013. If the numbers are accurate and reflect actual voting patterns, it will be a long, sad night for Texas Democrats.

[Meatspace]

Texas is looking great!

[byecomey]

You are correct. PA has by far the smallest turnout in early voting so far. The numbers right now aren’t meaningful.

[LS]

Nonsense.

First, PA isn’t doing VBM to the extent FL is, so the raw numbers are lower.
Second, you have to know the culture of each state and its voting to know how to place it in context.

FL has HUGE R turnout on ED, as does AZ. Given the smaller numbers of PA VBM, it will be an ED as well.

Third, NO ONE knows in places like GA, TX, MN, WI, MI what the ballots are because they don’t get “R” or “D” ballots, so this is all modeling. I suspect since it’s NBC, they didn’t even look at or count the raw vote, just went with a modeling firm that did all this.

In FL, for example Rs are back to speed adding 5,000- 6,000 NET votes PER HOUR. The D lead might vanish entirely by election day. But in 2016, Ds went into election day with an 88,000 lead and Trump won by 113. So you might adjust any FL numbers by 201,000.

Finally, we DO have actual data on FL and its “supervoters” (i.e., the famous 4/4 voters) are massively in the Rs favor, where they have 230,000 remaining and Ds are actually in the hole, Technically, the Ds could have zero voters on ED. Now, of course that won’t happen, but it means that Rs have a massive pool of sure-thing voters while Ds have virtually no sure thing voters remaining.

[TheConservativeTejano]

Partner, we need another MSM and Pollsters for this election since President Trump will win big and win the House and Senate.

The MSM and Fake Pollsters have not gotten the memo.

Hard to believe the Pennsylvania voting.

It is NBC putting out these numbers and they are so fake.

I am closely watching NYC and New Jersey right now.

[LS]

Ok, a few #s.

2016 going into election day, Ds had a net lead of everything of 88,000

Trump won by 113,000.

Right now, the vote by mail is a D advantage of 594,111

Rs have an “In Person Early Vote” advantage of 278,907

So the ACTUAL D advantage right now is 315,204.
To have the same lead as on election day morning 2016, Ds are at an advantage of 227,204
To overcome Trump’s 2016 advantage they are at an advantage of . . . 114,204.

In short, we are about a day and a half of early voting to get to 2016 election evening. and we’re about 2.5 days away from getting to 2016 election morning. And we’re about 3 days from going into ED with a lead.

[Red Badger]

I believe Trump will win California for the first time since Reagan...................

[SelfhatingMillennial]

How the hell does “in-person absentee” make ANY sense? You are either present or absent... “In-person” suggests the former. Words truly mean nothing anymore.

[Amendment10]

Here’s evidence of buyer’s remorse from early Biden voters.

• Good news, early Biden voters! In the following states, you can change your early vote to @realDonaldTrump.

• Google Searches For ‘Can I Change My Vote’ Reportedly Surge After Alleged Hunter Biden Sex Tapes

• “Change My Vote” is Google Trending Pa, Fl, NC, MI, GA,TX, WI

• The phrase ‘change my vote’ was Googled so much post debate, it hit the MAX limit on Google trends chart!

• Want to change your vote? Some states say no problem

Send "Orange Man Bad" federal and state government desperate Democrats home in November!

Supporting PDJT with a new patriot Congress and state government leaders that will promise to fully support his already excellent work for MAGA and stopping SARS-CoV-2 will effectively give fast-working Trump a "third term" in office imo.

I don’t see any problem with voting Republican ticket for 2020 elections.

Insights welcome.

[sdog22]

I vote by absentee in CA but drop off my ballot at my polling location on Election Day.