Posted on 10/08/2020 10:10:54 AM PDT by MMaschin
Once again polling is coming out and it shows that Trump is doomed, but is he?
For a poll to be accurate they want their sample to be heterogeneous as possible. Then they match the sample to exit polls by as many demographics as possible and they should have an accurate representation how the overall group, the sample represents, are thinking.
The problem is there is one key demographic in the sample that is 100% homogeneous and that makes it impossible for the sample to accurately reflect the larger group as a whole. All poll samples consist 100% of people willing to participate in a poll. Therefore it's impossible to have that sample match those voter not willing to participate in a poll.
There was a poll done of Pennsylvania that showed Biden ahead by 13 points. This clearly indicates that Biden is way ahead in Pennsylvania - correct? But that same poll also asked "who do you think will win the state of Pennsylvania?" and the result favored Trump 46%-45%. So, even when Biden was 13 points ahead, more people in a group that favored Biden thought Trump would win?
So, what the polls are showing is that Trump supporters are less likely to participate in a poll. This makes sense, Trump supporters look at the media as "fake" and pollsters are just an extension of the media. The effect of this is dramatic. While pollsters will ensure that they include a sufficient number of Republicans in the sample to match 2016 exit polls, they are only including those Republicans who are willing to participate in a poll, which are very likely to be much softer Trump supporters than the one's not willing to participate.
While the polls may not be "fake", they certainly are not very accurate. If you look at a poll, look for the "neighbor question" and that will give you a MUCH more accurate picture of the state of the race.
In 2016 the exit polls showed Clinton winning by a landslide. It was later revealed that the majority of people they asked just walked past them without answering, it was mostly Clinton voters who talked to them.
I actually got polled this year. The disdain in the guys voice as I answered all Yuge Pro President MAGA Trump was palatable. I bet I was never even added to the poll:-)
At this point polls are simply to influence the election, not report status.
If it causes some dems to stay home because they are certain of a Harris/Biden win I’m OK with that.
Good question is how many are refusing to take the poll when asked? If a large number of the electorate is not interested in answering the phone for a poll then the accuracy of the poll is going to be way off.
My daughter-in-law went to a neighborhood gathering of women in her rather large neighborhood last night. She knew some women there but met several new people that asked her where their house was. When she explained, all of them replied, “Oh, you live in the house with the Trump sign.” and “You’re so brave to put that sign in your yard.” All of them were Trump supporters.
Never mind that their sign has been stolen 4 times and replaced with another! My point is that this is an example of the MANY, MANY people that don’t want to advertise they are Trump supporters and possibly suffer consequences. I pray there are millions of Trump supporters just like these people!
I had a pollester call me yesterday...curious... I took the call.
I could here her click her keyboard every answer that really wasn’t important...but any time I said something pro Trump... There was no sound...nothing.
I dont think these polls reflect 100% and yesterday confirmed it. These are slanted and being paid for by the Left. So the pollesters will continue showingvthe left is winning to get the $$$...
We all know who’s going to win... It’s not some whore and her aged out boyfriend!
The polls do cause fear and panic among the weak-minded around here....
My favorite three words of rebuttal:
President Hillary Clinton.
https://time.com/4546942/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-lead-poll/
Hillary 14 point lead.
The date: October 26, 2016.
These are the same pollsters who showed Trump as having no way to victory in 2016. They showed Hillary being up by 9% in Utah. Yeah, and Tinkerbell dances on my dresser at night. Yeah, they’ll be pounding the story about Trump taking a ratings nose-dive, blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah....
The MSM does this every single Presidential election. In early October, they haunch a steaming pile of Dem +15 polls out of their AIDS holes to try to suppress the conservative vote.
That’s totally interesting! I’ve never ever been pulled by anybody nor will I probably ever be but I do think that I would lie to them and say I was for Biden or Clinton or whatever just to screw them up
We have a Trump sign on our lawn. We’re the only house on the street with one. The rest have none. A neighbor came up and said to my wife “you’re brave to have that sign in this state. But, I agree with you!”
There was a study that showed that around 2.5% of people would not vote if they thought their candidate would lose.
National polls mean nothing
The irony is that the polls showing a huge Democratic victory are likely to suppress the Sanders voters who are unenthusiastic about Biden anyway. This gives them an excuse not to vote.
“Tinkerbell dances on my dresser at night.”
Seriously? How can Tinkerbell dance on two different dressers at the same time?
MY HOPE is, with the Trump win, that the POLL Industry is destroyed forever.
Polling is a CANCER in this country.
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