Posted on 09/04/2020 1:28:28 PM PDT by Conserv
Donald Trump is now leading with Independents by ten points, Black and Hispanic voters support for Trump spiked after the GOP convention, and the national race is tightening up. Trump is tied with Biden in Michiganand enthusiasm for Trump with his base is sky-high. Joe Biden is not fairing so well with Democrats on that front. They know he sucks.
While two months ago, the retaking the house might have seemed like a stretch, but if these lefty clowns keep burning buildings, assaulting cops, and forcing Democratic mayors to flee their residences, then it could be within reach. Patrick Murray commented on Monmouths polling of the House races and found that in the six most competitive contests this cycle, the generic Republican is ahead by 10 points [emphasis mine]:
The Monmouth University Poll also posed a generic ballot test for the U.S. House of Representatives election, which shows 48% of registered voters currently supporting the Democratic candidate in their district and 45% backing the Republican. This result stood at a similar 49% to 45% in Monmouths July poll. Applying likely voter models to the current sample, high turnout puts the statewide vote choice at 48% Democrat and 46% Republican while low turnout has it at 48% Democrat and 47% Republican.
In 12 congressional districts where the winning margin for either party was greater than 15 points in 2018, the Democrats lead by 8 points (51% to 43%). In the six most competitive districts, though, the Republicans lead by 10 points (50% to 40%). In July, the Democrats held small leads in both the safe seats (49% to 46%) and the competitive ones (48% to 43%).
Republican gains on the generic ballot in competitive seats should worry Democrats. Only district-level polling can tell if this is because GOP incumbents are bulking up their margins or if GOP challengers are eating into support for Democratic incumbents
We still have a longs way to go, but with Labor Day upon usmore folks start to pay attention. If the mayhem in the streets, thanks to leftists continues, expect more shifts across the board. Also, the economy bouncing back, and those three debates could also change the race.
In Pennsylvanias six most competitive House districts, Republicans have a 10 pt edge on the generic ballot, per Monmouth.
Dems led by five in those same districts in July. As I always say, actions speak as loud as polls.
Fact that Biden was screaming how he wasnt anti fracking in Pittsburgh this week was a big tell. 11:24 AM · Sep 2, 2020
Damn. Left out the link........
History will show that the rotten Rat strategy will go down as the stoopidest political move ever.
Imagine how great it’s going to be when that hag Pelosi is no longer the Speaker, Adam Schiftless is again in the minority on the Intel committee and there are no long any threats of impeachment against DJT.
YES, that makes perfect sense! I thought Biden came out of seclusion to oppose violence hurting our cities. But he goes to Pittsburg?, and starts talking about about being pro-fracking? Obviously poll-driven panic had set in.
I highly doubt if the GOP will pick up any seats in urban Western Washington, Western Oregon, the Bay Area or Los Angeles.
Good
FYI
Thanks Conserv.
It looks to me like the Left is running their own agenda, and that agenda might be to run businesses out of overpriced jurisdictions with too little housing and overpriced everything. At the same time there are plenty of jurisdictions that would gladly welcome these businesses in communities that have plenty of housing, water, etc.
I understand that, if thats what they are doing. Its actually political suicide for the Democrats to support this, which is probably why the Left is making hay while the SJWs are proudly claiming responsibility. At least thats how it looks to me. It seems like a really strange strategy for a party that has every reason to try to show the voters how well they govern.
What we are looking at instead, is the political equivalent of insulting and belittling a woman in an attempt to get her to feel really badly about herself so that her standards will drop low enough to consider dating the person doing the insulting and belittling. They really are Americas abusive spouse.
I highly doubt if the GOP will pick up any seats in urban Western Washington, Western Oregon, the Bay Area or Los Angeles.
the political equivalent of insulting and belittling a woman in an attempt to get her to feel really badly about herself so that her standards will drop low enough to consider dating the person doing the insulting and belittling. They really are Americas abusive spouse.
Well put.
No but I can see the GOP gaining back all the seats lost in 2018 and maybe gaining an extra 10 to 20 seats to get them above 255.
Youre probably right. The defamation of Red state people seems to have pretty effectively kept people in San Fran and other high rent districts to stay put, and put up with being milked dry of their cash. It seems more likely that some people will flee rather than some great movement of Blue state voters deciding to side with their vision of Trump supporters and vote Republican. Were deplorable after all, and maybe one step removed from the Hatfields and McCoys in many West coast minds. Oh the horror!
Hopefully the doom-and-gloom Freepers are reading this.
Hopefully the Republicans aren’t going to be caught flat footed with the ballot harvesting like when they lose 7 seats in California.
I agree. Washington state pubbie party is lost and adrift.
Can you explain why polls arent done 50/50 percent of the dems/ republicans? Ive never understood why pollsters weigh it heavier like they do for one side. Thanks.
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