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EARLY POLLING FINDS TRUMP GETTING A CONVENTION BOUNCE
Powerline ^ | POSTED ON AUGUST 29, 2020 | PAUL MIRENGOFF

Posted on 08/29/2020 4:58:13 PM PDT by Hojczyk

A poll by Morning Consult finds President Trump in better shape after the GOP Convention than before it. According to this poll, Trump now trails Biden by 50-44 among likely voters. Before the Convention, he trailed 52-42.

This “bounce” seems to be a function of respondents viewing Biden less favorably than before, rather than viewing Trump more favorably. Morning Consult found that Biden’s favorability numbers have weakened while the president’s have remained steady.

That’s not surprising. Speakers at the GOP Convention savaged Biden. Indeed, the most effective part of Trump’s acceptance speech was his attack on the former vice president, in my opinion.

Speakers also lauded the president, of course. But voters pretty much know what they think of him, I imagine. Speeches aren’t likely to move that needle. Only an improvement in the nation’s outlook, especially as regards the Wuhan coronavirus, is likely to have that effect.

I did find one mild surprise in the Morning Consult numbers.

Trump left the convention with a slightly worse standing among voters of color, trailing Biden by 28 points among Hispanic voters (33 percent to 61 percent) and 74 points among Black voters (9 percent to 83 percent).

This, despite relentless pitching to Blacks.

The optimist in me says that most of the Black voters who expressed no preference to pollsters (8 percent of them) are closet Trump supporters. If just half of them are, then Trump would be at 13 percent with this group of voters (assuming the other 92 percent are being honest with the pollsters). That’s probably about 5 points lower than the campaign hopes for, but about 5 points higher than in 2016.

The Morning Consult survey is just one poll. We shouldn’t read too much into it.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: bounce; poll; polls

1 posted on 08/29/2020 4:58:13 PM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: Hojczyk

Who believes a Poll that shows Clueless Joe up by 10%?


2 posted on 08/29/2020 5:02:36 PM PDT by EC Washington
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To: Hojczyk

The Hill reported:

President Trump’s support among black voters rose 9 percentage points amid the Republican National Convention, a new Hill-HarrisX poll finds.

Twenty-four percent of registered black voters in the Aug. 22-25 survey, which included the first two days of the convention, said they approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 76 percent said they disapprove.

That is up 9 points from the previous survey conducted Aug. 8-11, where the President received 15 percent support among this group.


3 posted on 08/29/2020 5:05:56 PM PDT by Hojczyk
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Trump approval rises among black, hispanic voters amid convention
4 posted on 08/29/2020 5:06:20 PM PDT by deport
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To: Hojczyk

“Quick, we need another police shooting.”


5 posted on 08/29/2020 5:07:25 PM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: Hojczyk

According to this poll, Trump now trails Biden by 50-44 among likely voters.

Unmitigated Bullshit. All polls, without exception, reflect the outcome or trend the guy paying for the poll wants to show.


6 posted on 08/29/2020 5:14:07 PM PDT by GoldenPup
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To: Hojczyk

It’s time to wake the hell up and kiss off every single “conservative” media outlet or weblog, like Fox and Powerline, that is either complicit or too damn stupid to realize they’re being played for suckers by participating in Marxocrat gaslighting by repeating bullschitt talking points of the left, such as “Trump is 4 points behind Slow Joe and Cameltoe.” We all know this is crap. We need to act like we know it and blow these quisling azzholes off our radar screen.


7 posted on 08/29/2020 5:28:59 PM PDT by DrPretorius
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To: dfwgator
“Quick, we need another police shooting.”

Yup, or a mass casualty attack.

8 posted on 08/29/2020 5:29:40 PM PDT by Steely Tom ([Seth Rich] == [the Democrats' John Dean])
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To: Hojczyk

“According to this poll, Trump now trails Biden by 50-44 among likely voters.”

What the liar pollsters don’t reveal is that they poll 45% democrats and 30% republicans.

IOW, Trump is up over Biden by at least 10%.


9 posted on 08/29/2020 5:31:57 PM PDT by sergeantdave (Teach a man to fish and he'll steal your gear and sell it)
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To: sergeantdave

If Trump has internal numbers that show that he will win Minnesota its over for sleepy Joe..not even Reagan won Minnesota, no Republican has ever won that state if Trump can win it its over for the commies and they know it


10 posted on 08/29/2020 5:34:48 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Hojczyk
That's two convention bounces for Trump. Zero for Biden.
11 posted on 08/29/2020 5:35:56 PM PDT by TigersEye (Wear Your Mask-Stay In Your Home-Do What You're Told-Vote Democrat)
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To: Hojczyk

My sense is that Trump still has about 2% support among black women, but is well in the 30’s with black men.


12 posted on 08/29/2020 5:37:17 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: Sarah Barracuda

OAN 1 hr ago published interview with Bruce Levell, Executive Dir. Trump Diversity Coalition, where he believes that numbers show possible high 20s among black voters and high 30s for hispanics.

https://youtu.be/BYi0d7fvPFI

Very interesting that Trumps people are putting out numbers like these.

From his lips to God’s ear.


13 posted on 08/29/2020 5:41:12 PM PDT by Covenantor (We are ruled...by liars who refuse them news, and by fools who cannperhaps thot govern. " Chesterton)
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To: Hojczyk

Anyone who believes polls is an idiot, i.e. a democrat.


14 posted on 08/29/2020 5:41:47 PM PDT by bigbob (Trust Trump. Trust the Plan)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Are you ready to celebrate, Sarah?


15 posted on 08/29/2020 5:55:32 PM PDT by sergeantdave (Teach a man to fish and he'll steal your gear and sell it)
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To: sergeantdave

If I cannot quickly click and find the internals with a party affiliation, I discount the poll.


16 posted on 08/29/2020 6:05:42 PM PDT by Lagmeister
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To: EC Washington

You underestimate the stupidity of the American people, especially young and college “educated” women.


17 posted on 08/29/2020 7:13:57 PM PDT by nbenyo
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To: Hojczyk

“Trump now trails Biden by 50-44 among likely voters”

ROTFLOL!


18 posted on 08/29/2020 9:34:34 PM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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