[amorphous]

2 April COB numbers:

Numbers from https://www.worldometers.info. Smaller ratio numbers are better. Data not validated. YMMV for informational interest only. PM me if you would like on or off the ping list.

Significant drops in both US & UK ND/TD ratios. The US went from number of deaths doubling every 4 days to doubling every 5 days. This is significant because is reduces our projected deaths on 15 April by half, from 100,000 to 50,000!

France is having a tough time right now as you can see in the plot below.

Daily percentage of new Corona virus deaths to previous day's total by country. 25% = total deaths double every 3 days, 20% = every 4 days, 15% = every 5 days, 10% = about 1 week, 5% = about 2 weeks.

Nothing Follows.

[dfwgator]

Isn’t France updating numbers from Nursing Homes they weren’t previously including?

[grey_whiskers]

One thing follows, inescapably.

China is Asshoe.™

[amorphous]

I have a correction on estimated number of deaths by 15 April. I neglected to bring the date forward to today's date.

After re-projecting the numbers from today, projected number of deaths on 15 April are 37k, instead of 50k, if the ND/TD rate stays the same.

Naturally I believe/hope the ND/TD rate continues to fall quite a lot, right up to 15 April. Quarantines fully in place, HCQ success, and other measures taken - mandatory masks perhaps - should really make a difference.

A falling ND/TD rate has a huge effect on the final 15 April number - the day some predict peak infection will occur.