Replies

To: Mariner; mrsmith; LilFarmer; RetiredScientist; ReaganGeneration2; miserare; Badboo; Jane Long; ...

I have a correction on estimated number of deaths by 15 April. I neglected to bring the date forward to today's date.

After re-projecting the numbers from today, projected number of deaths on 15 April are 37k, instead of 50k, if the ND/TD rate stays the same.

Naturally I believe/hope the ND/TD rate continues to fall quite a lot, right up to 15 April. Quarantines fully in place, HCQ success, and other measures taken - mandatory masks perhaps - should really make a difference.

A falling ND/TD rate has a huge effect on the final 15 April number - the day some predict peak infection will occur.

540 posted on 04/02/2020 8:32:13 PM PDT by amorphous

That 34k is cumulative deaths right?

597 posted on 04/02/2020 9:31:03 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts (M / F) : Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat/RINO Party!)

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