Scientific models for years have been way off as proven by the constant doom and gloom climate change predictions.
Those here who long and pine for certainty are just fools.
Projecting a death estimate is based on lots and lots of variables each of which must be estimated and then summed.
None of the variables is actual reality. All are variable over geographical space and time and are unrelated within a certain category. Deaths in a Tennessee county have no comparative basis with a death in New Orleans or a Seattle nursing home.
The actual projection has a margin of error of 100,000 deaths.
So, it is foolish to bet on 100 k deaths.
Italy is at 13k deaths. and just starting to taper off, so safe to assume they will be at 25k minimum. We are over 5x as big as Italy, so it won’t be hard to get to 100k deaths here. We have more ICU beds, more money, fewer elderly, which could lower it. We have more overweight diabetics, so that will make it worse.