[crusty old prospector]

Time will tell.

[ClearCase_guy]

Good to see evidence of slowing transmission. But deaths will still be increasing for at least a couple weeks. That part of the news will depress people as it comes out. But there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel.

[V_TWIN]

““We made a huge impact. We slowed the transmission,” Democratic Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan said according to the NYT.”

A dem mayor speaking to the nyt sharing good news? My paranoia makes me think they want people to relax and go back to normal prematurely.

[devane617]

The spikes over the past few days is a result of tests that were taken a week or so ago that are now coming back. Many who were positive have either died or has gotten better.

[null and void]

EXCELLENT!

In the meanwhile, look what's happening to pneumonia deaths...

I'll be darned! Ignatz Semmelweis was right! Hand washing prevents deaths!

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[1Old Pro]

Pretty sure I heard the good doctors say at yesterday’s WH presser than New York is in trouble because they were slow to act, i.e. DeBlasio and Cuomo encouraging Chinese new year gatherings and the like. Kinda deflates Cuomo’s aura.

[JohnBrowdie]

how could it not be slowing? the whole country is halfway shut down.

[fireman15]

The virus was first discovered in this country in Snohomish County Washington. A man who had been visiting Wuhan China the week before came down with it. A couple weeks later King County announced that it had the first death from the virus. A man who had not traveled out of the area died from the virus. Researchers at the University of Washington looking into this determined that the death was not linked to the first case discovered and that the virus had likely already been spreading through the community before the first case was discovered on January 19.

The East side of King and Snohomish Counties where we live were the initial hotspots in this country. The reason why is typically not mentioned in the media or by politicians. We have over half a million Chinese immigrants here and a large percentage visit home often. Many of the 3 million Chinese who visited the United States in 2019 arrived at SeaTac.

After the Trump “travel ban” on January 31 over 10,000 Chinese changed their destination airport from SeaTac to Vancouver International a 3 hour drive North. Our friends in Canada were more than happy to help these new arrivals subvert our President's “xenophobic” travel ban with essentially no health screening, and our politically correct border patrol administrators were more than happy to let them through from Canada also with no health screening.

So after being hit first in this area and having it spreading through our community for a month or so we started having deaths and East King County led the State and the country for an extended period of time. In the past two weeks this dubious honor was lost. Now we do not make even the top 20. While the rest of the state and the rest of the country are reporting more deaths and hospital Intensive Care Units are close to being overwhelmed in some areas... the opposite is now happening in East King County. The number of deaths have dropped to very few, and hospital intensive care units are back to normal after a couple weeks of challenging times.

Strangely enough, just as this was starting to be noticed by a few media outlets, Washington's Department of Health stopped releasing the data break down that shows this. They say that it was a software glitch. But it isn't it strange how data that does not fit the current narrative always somehow seems to get lost?

The Governor is of course trying to take credit, saying his stay at home order has saved us all, but the decline here started before the order could have had much of an effect, and the number of deaths and infections in the rest of the state continue to rise. So what really happened? It looks similar to when a bad flu runs it's course in a community. A lot of people get it, some vulnerable people die, and then it moves on continuing to create havoc somewhere else.

Risking being called a “flubro” by the hysterical here... I predict that this will pass in other places as it has here. The worst case scenarios will not be realized and the number of dead from pneumonia will not be as great as they were from the 2017-18 flu season. What we are experiencing is mass hysteria fueled by politics.

[sima_yi]

I have been tracking the total infected doubling time; the doubling time (i.e., the time it takes to double the total number of confirmed and presumptive cases, data from the CDC) is increasing and it definitely appears that the infection rate is slowing.

[redgolum]

Or we are farther up the curve than expected

[TBP]

This isn’t allowed to be true.