[AndyJackson]

BTW I am not a panic monger, except to the extent that panic is necessary to get people to jump off the track before the express train hits them in the dark of the night. I am very encouraged at the very preliminary indications over the last couple of days that we have broken out of an exponential increase.

But that does not mean, "pheww this is over" and we can go back to business as usual because you will just start up the same old exponential again, but now staring with a much larger more broadly seeded number of initial cases. Relax now and it could come at us a whole lot faster.

In other words we need to get the number of active cases way down, get them isolated and be able to track new cases aggressively.

And at the same time control entry on our boarders.

[DoodleBob]

Mr Jackson, my good man, you and I are firmly in agreement on what you wrote. The point of my logistic vs exponential pattern is that controls or nature (more likely controls) WILL make the curve flatten. We've seen it elsewhere. My other point, wasn't that the original posting was wrong: it was the point of indexing at 10 cases is faulty since 10 cases for Switzerland isn't the same intensity of infection as 10 cases in America or San Marino.

If my Flyers are beating the Islanders 4-1 at the beginning of the 3rd period, I don't want them to play defense. We can work from home a little while longer to snuff this thing out. Let's keep researching, let's keep posting, and let the marketplace of ideas and research win the day.

[IrishBrigade]

‘But that does not mean, “pheww this is over” and we can go back to business as usual’

I am as big a ‘flubro’ as anyone else on this thread; but I have never expressed such an opinion...I am fully aware of the need for mitigation through isolation and improved hygiene,but what really gets me angry are people who chastise me for not being sufficiently terrified that I do other than cower in a corner all day...