I don’t think Trump is ‘betting the farm’ on anything. It seems to me that it’s Fauci and Blix pushing for antibody tests. In an attempt to save the credibility of the CCP/WHO and the CDC that followed them like little sheep.
If we had large numbers of asymptomatics or ‘recovered’ in California, contamination would have shown up in urgent cares as flus in the lull between the Jan 31 airlifts and the release from quarantine 14 days later - around Valentine’s Day. March 6th the only CV were the airport quarantined and the quarantined airlift folk. Even with ‘community acquired’ and ‘imported’ CV in Santa Clara that same week, 20 days later California as a whole is in the 3K club, whereas NY is pushing into the 40K club. Recent testing in Riv Co. is under .5% positive, almost all are mild symptoms quarantine at homes. This area being heavy on illegals was likely chosen on purpose. So the 0.5% seems a good figure to predict CA numbers. Similarly, Oregon had one case about the same time as CA, currently have 300 cases. So it seems to be slower growth on the West Coast, nursing homes excepted, and not related to weather. Not lending much evidence to value of antibody tests.
Good points.
But there may be explanations.
It’s worth it to actually look and see if there’s been significant immunization.
The CDC and FDA have much to answer for.
If we had large numbers of asymptomatics or ‘recovered’ in California, contamination would have shown up in urgent cares as flus in the lull between the Jan 31 airlifts and the release from quarantine 14 days later - around Valentine’s Day.
Why would "asymptomatics" go to an urgent care?