Good points.
But there may be explanations.
It’s worth it to actually look and see if there’s been significant immunization.
https://twitter.com/BlackJackBoGre1/status/1243308511724888065
Faucci article in NEJM.
2.2 R0, maybe more like a severe flu.
I will bet there is no pool of people that already had it - where are all the serious and critical cases that would have spawned from the totally uncontained wandering asymptomatic infected?
I will also pray to be wrong, and that we are developing an immunized population in the herd.
From the DP we know what the distribution of asymptomatic, mild, serious and critical cases are. SK has a similar distribution.
But NY is in the very early stages, so many of the infected are simply pre symptomatic. There are probably 100k infected in, or recently fled from, NYC. Ballpark. Give it a few days more to stabilize.
maybe we are an exception. If there’s significant immunity, probably better to look in SFO and LAX where the Asian and Iranian populations are higher?