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My current opinion of the epidemic's progress in the US is:

We'll see three waves, and the first is just starting in NYC. This wave will end around May-June after it hits every major metropolitan area and some to a lot of the medium-size ones. Deaths will lag new infections (those with symptoms) by 10-20 days, which is pretty normal.

There will be an apparent pause in July-August which most will attribute to summer, and that might even be true. Many will say the epidemic is over.

Then the second wave will pick up in September-October. That depends in part on whether the schools reopen. It might be worst than the first wave in both infections and deaths, and will peter off about two months after it starts. This may well be the real killer wave. It will be everywhere, i.e., including where it swept through the first time.

And there will be a third wave coming on around February-March 2021. This too might be a bad one, but IMO there is a reasonable chance that its death rate will be low because I expect a reasonably effective cure for it by then consisting of a combination of drugs and therapies, plus there will be sufficient ventilators and oxygen systems by then.

This isn't speculation but it is a non-expert opinion, though based on a whole lot of data, mostly the history of past epidemics.

My opinion on the epidemic's end is clouded by the current uncertainty about the degree of immunity conferred by contracting and surviving the Wuhan Virus. Leaving that out of the equation, I'd say it will end either with widespread use of an effective vaccine (if nothing else ends it first), or perhaps earlier by mutation into a less virulent and lethal form the way the Spanish Flu did.

Interesting scenarios.

I am getting concerned that political leaders (especially US and the UK) may “let the virus free” in most of their country as soon as Easter.

If that happens I would expect an explosion of cases in May that will cripple health care systems everywhere in both countries—and deeply stun the public—put them into a deep mourning and psychological depression.

That would presumably be followed by brutal lockdowns (unless masks were _finally_ available for everyone).

Masks can be the game changer—if they are available and socially acceptable/required.

I'd be thrilled if the US has only 80,000 fatalities from the Wuhan Virus in the next four months. It could easily be 200,000 because we lack sufficient hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators. We'll have more in the fall and enough by the end of the year.

This first wave will be grim in terms of deaths due to insufficent medical care.

https://news.yahoo.com/us-virus-deaths-may-top-80-000-despite-161924116.html