Corona Virus Daily Thread #28

[Mariner]

Thread #27 here:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3828191/posts?page=1

[calenel]

:)

[Oorang]

Hyperventilate much?

[null and void]

Welcome aboard!

[Black Agnes]

I’m still on edge because what percent of our manufacturing is shut down waiting for those chinese widgets.

Any idea when we’ll start getting those chinese widgets again?

I’d hate to lose a major appliance, like my washer, and not be able to get another one. that would be icky. banging clothes on a rock down by the river...

And domestic antibiotic production would be really great too.

[Black Agnes]

The deaths are disappointing.

I wonder how long it will take to know from that daily number whether the new meds are really working or not.

[DEPcom]

I am not sure if the factories in China are fully operational yet.

[Jane Long]

NY state accounts for HALF of US cases and deaths. Thanks, primarily, to NYC.

Let that sink in.

[DEPcom]

“In early Feb they were still saying there was no aerosol transmission.”

I think the CDC had all their faith in the WHO when they stated that. The WHO was claiming that.

I will have to go back and review what they meant by “Low Risk”. I am not sure if they meant low risk contracting it, I believe that was low risk of dying from it. I think they keep saying low risk keep us calm.

I am still thinking we will turn out better then South korea, but I could be wrong on that after watching New York City. I am hoping for far less.

[DEPcom]

“Dr. Birx was just up there saying that the UK had revised their death rates down from 500,000 to 20,000.”

That is really mess up. Wonder how much that 500K effected markets and decisions. Lesson do trust UK science.

[Black Agnes]

I won’t believe they are until our factories get the widgets they need to restart production.

Until then, those workers will be SOL.

[Black Agnes]

Betcha that takes into account the HCQ.

[LilFarmer]

FL

During a press conference on Tuesday, March 24, 2020 Florida Governor Ron DeSantis says Atria Willow Wood negligence is possibly criminal.

Six residents of a Fort Lauderdale assisted-living facility have died from the new coronavirus, including three new deaths reported Thursday.

The death toll at Atria Willow Wood has been rising since the first resident died March 16, and others have tested positive for the disease.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-florida-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order-20200325-we2ls7dcx5atnpswqyequsveqa-story.html

****
2,484 cases with 29 deaths

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

[LilFarmer]

NJ

Coronavirus updates: N.J. reports 1st health care worker death, U.S. leads world in cases. What you need to know. (March 26, 2020)
Today 6:32 PM
...
N.J. reports 1st health care worker to die from coronavirus: A health care worker has died from the coronavirus, officials said Thursday. State Health Commissioner Judy Persichilli said the person was “a part-time worker in the northern part of the state.” Officials did not identify where the person worked.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/coronavirus-updates-nj-reports-1st-health-care-worker-death-us-leads-world-in-cases-what-you-need-to-know-march-26-2020.html

[janetjanet998]

“Dr. Birx was just up there saying that the UK had revised their death rates down from 500,000 to 20,000.”

---

but they didn’t

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928

[BusterDog]

'Strange COVID-19 Bedfellows: Gnawing Anxiety and Under-Reaction'

In recent days several other friends have expressed a lot of anxiety to us about COVID-19, but then mentioned almost in passing that they were taking a trip to Florida next week to visit grandchildren, or going into New York City by train for a dinner date, or excited about a planned week in Hawaii, or attending a business meeting in Michigan. They mostly dropped these trips into the conversation without connecting them to the part of the conversation about COVID-19.

We think their anxiety about COVID-19 was in one place and their cognitive understanding of COVID-19 was in another.

So we want to talk about these strange COVID-19 bedfellows: gnawing anxiety and under-reaction.

People you know are probably experiencing exactly this contradiction as we confront the COVID-19 pandemic together:

On the one hand, they feel a gnawing anxiety in the pit of their stomachs that just won’t go away.

On the other hand, they haven’t changed their daily lives much yet, or even planned much for the life changes that they sort-of suspect are just around the corner.

This is true of many people we know, including people who have spent decades preparing professionally for this unprecedented moment.

What’s going on? And what can be done about it? Here is a tentative answer.

1. Just about everybody is feeling the anxiety – perhaps even the naysayers like Dr. Marc Siegel, whose anxiety leaks out around his scoffing.

2. Just about everybody wonders if they’re overreacting – except the “preppers” who have been predicting this moment for years.

3. As a result of #1 and #2, just about everybody is a bit frozen in place with self-doubt.

4. The self-doubt and the frozen-in-place feeling are exacerbated by conflicting messages from government and media.

5. They’re also exacerbated by our totally understandable fear of being mocked as alarmist.

6. The not-very-satisfying solution: We have to bear it all – not just the pandemic itself, not just the anxiety, but also the self-doubt, the mixed messages, and the fear of being mocked. In spite of it all, we have to do what we can to protect ourselves and get ready, and to help our loved ones, neighbors, and communities protect themselves and get ready. And officials have to do what they can to help.

Our gut “knows” that we’re almost certainly facing a pandemic severe enough to disrupt our normal lives.

If we were 100% rational, our brain would know it too. “Star Trek’s” Mr. Spock would find the evidence persuasive that the COVID-19 threat is bad and rapidly getting worse. Mr. Spock would instantly understand COVID-19’s short doubling time – why one week nothing much was happening in northern Italy and a week later it was as if a Category 5 hurricane had hit them. Sure, the pandemic might fizzle; the virus might mutate into a milder strain; a miracle cure or vaccine might get invented overnight; the world could get lucky. But those are long shots. The vast majority of experts now expect at least a few very bad months, and maybe a couple of very bad years.

[BusterDog]

“but they didn’t”

So what is Birx reading?

[DEPcom]

“Prince Harry and Meghan Markle leave Canada and set up home in LA “

I guess the Canada heath care was not good enough for the virus treatment.

[BusterDog]

“I am still thinking we will turn out better then South korea”

If infection and death is the game, they aren’t in the same league with us. They are not even playing the same sport.

[Thud]

My current opinion of the epidemic's progress in the US is:

We'll see three waves, and the first is just starting in NYC. This wave will end around May-June after it hits every major metropolitan area and some to a lot of the medium-size ones. Deaths will lag new infections (those with symptoms) by 10-20 days, which is pretty normal.

There will be an apparent pause in July-August which most will attribute to summer, and that might even be true. Many will say the epidemic is over.

Then the second wave will pick up in September-October. That depends in part on whether the schools reopen. It might be worst than the first wave in both infections and deaths, and will peter off about two months after it starts. This may well be the real killer wave. It will be everywhere, i.e., including where it swept through the first time.

And there will be a third wave coming on around February-March 2021. This too might be a bad one, but IMO there is a reasonable chance that its death rate will be low because I expect a reasonably effective cure for it by then consisting of a combination of drugs and therapies, plus there will be sufficient ventilators and oxygen systems by then.

This isn't speculation but it is a non-expert opinion, though based on a whole lot of data, mostly the history of past epidemics.

My opinion on the epidemic's end is clouded by the current uncertainty about the degree of immunity conferred by contracting and surviving the Wuhan Virus. Leaving that out of the equation, I'd say it will end either with widespread use of an effective vaccine (if nothing else ends it first), or perhaps earlier by mutation into a less virulent and lethal form the way the Spanish Flu did.

[Black Agnes]

I await the antibody tests.

Are they still working on one that operates like a home pregnancy test? only with a finger stick for blood sample?