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To: Mariner
A big problem with the monitoring is that Confirmed Case Counts and deaths etc vary because of a nation or state's size/population. In statistics data are "standardized" so that all numeric values that differ, e.g., like age in months and height in inches and weight in kg, are put on a common scale. To wit: is the US with 33,272 cases yesterday worse off than Switzerland and her 7,245 cases or France and her 16176 cases?

I pulled down the Confirmed Case data used by JH that is housed on GitHub and then pulled in the population counts by country (and state) from the UN (yea, I know...work with me). In the table below, I list select countries and US states' Confirmed Case Counts. I then 'standarize' that data by dividing each nation or state's Confirmed Case Count by the respective population, then I multiply that standardized value by the US' population, to put each nation/state's Confirmed Case Count on a standardized basis.

Country/Region Population (MM) Confirmed Cases 3/22/2020 Standardized Cases 3/22/2020 Rank by Confirmed Cases Mar 22 Rank by Standardized Cases Mar 22
Austria 9.0 3,244 119,204 15 7
Belgium 11.5 3,401 96,986 14 9
California 39.5 1,642 13,675 19 21
China 1,433.8 81,511 18,707 1 19
Denmark 5.8 1,514 86,316 20 10
Florida 21.5 830 12,717 21 23
France 65.1 16,176 81,728 9 12
Germany 83.5 24,873 98,002 6 8
Hubei 58.5 67,800 381,378 2 1
Iran 82.9 21,638 85,876 7 11
Italy 60.6 59,138 321,391 3 2
Korea, South 51.2 8,897 57,153 12 15
Massachusetts 6.9 646 30,589 22 18
New Jersey 8.9 1,914 70,909 18 13
New York 19.5 15,793 267,145 10 4
Norway 5.4 2,383 145,786 16 6
Pennsylvania 12.8 509 13,083 24 22
Spain 46.7 28,768 202,550 5 5
Sweden 10.0 1,934 63,410 17 14
Switzerland 8.6 7,245 277,497 13 3
Texas 29.0 627 7,116 23 24
United Kingdom 67.5 11,423 55,663 11 16
US 329.1 33,272 33,272 4 17
US excl NY 329.1 17,479 18,577 8 20

Well..the US, with her fourth highest number of Confirmed Cases at the end of March 22, 2020 is actually 17th on this list when you adjust for the population! Further, if you remove New York (which is accounting for about half of the US' growth over the past three days), the US is the 20th lowest out of these 24 select countries/states. China gets a pickup because of it's huge population, but Hubei remains at the top, as does Italy. Perhaps most shocking is Switzerland: she looks like a standardized disaster, with a size-adjusted 250k Confirmed Case load. Similarly, New York State on a size-adjusted basis almost looks like Italy and Switzerland. In fact, Europe looks pretty bad as a group - except for the United Kingdom.

The economic and human wreckage that's overwhelming Europe and which has overwhelmed Asia is starting in America. It's also worth noting, as I showed, that the major areas and cities seem to be getting hit harder than other areas: look at New York and New Jersey vs Texas or Pennsylvania or even California.

But the US as a nation seems to be in a relatively better position on a size-adjusted basis. Maybe that's because we've been 'attacked' later in the process. I will pray that the US comes out of this mess, stronger than ever, in order for America to lead the world back to peace and prosperity. Domine, non sum dignus ut intres sub tectum meum, sed tantum dic verbo, et sanabitur anima mea.

87 posted on 03/24/2020 11:17:03 AM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: DoodleBob

It would be interesting to see how Madrid alone would rate on your chart...


90 posted on 03/24/2020 11:20:46 AM PDT by cgbg (BOLO--escaped SNF resident--Joe Biden)
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To: DoodleBob

PA doesn’t have the same level of participation in public transit as NYC metro in particular.

TX and CA have warmer temps (fewer outside fomites compared to NY), much less participation in shared transit systems and more sunshine (higher levels of D3).

South of I40 might not turn into a complete sh*t show that NYC/WA seem to have done.

Then there’s likely strain difference mortality/morbidity/R0 rates.

This fall might be another big outbreak.

Let’s all hope the antivirals ride to the rescue as they’re seeming to do.

IMHO they’re the reason Trump wants to reopen the economy. They might make it safe to do so.


94 posted on 03/24/2020 11:22:18 AM PDT by Black Agnes
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