[Black Agnes]

PA doesn’t have the same level of participation in public transit as NYC metro in particular.

TX and CA have warmer temps (fewer outside fomites compared to NY), much less participation in shared transit systems and more sunshine (higher levels of D3).

South of I40 might not turn into a complete sh*t show that NYC/WA seem to have done.

Then there’s likely strain difference mortality/morbidity/R0 rates.

This fall might be another big outbreak.

Let’s all hope the antivirals ride to the rescue as they’re seeming to do.

IMHO they’re the reason Trump wants to reopen the economy. They might make it safe to do so.

[DoodleBob]

Interestingly, the JH data went from county level, to State level, now it looks like it's at the city level for the US (it's still country-level in Europe). That destroys the ability to do proper time-series tracking but I'll take more granularity any day, even if it's late in the game.

Agnes, you're partly right about PA vs NYC; Philadlphia's SEPTA system is on par with the MTA in terms of geographic coverage. However, NYC has higher density than Philadelphia. Density has a lot to do with this IMHO.

If you want, I'll add you to my ping list on this sort of analysis.