Corona Virus Daily Thread #25

[Mariner]

Yesterday's thread here:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3827099/posts?page=1

[blueplum]

seems to me you’re either the poster, or lifting from the poster, almost word for word, from the below, and I notice that it didn’t get much response there, either:

horse, dead, beating

https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/the-coming-covid-19-rolling-power-black-outs/

[Thud]

That’s possible. I found my interpetation more plausible for reasons stated in my Nos. 694 and 734.

[BobL]

I see that. Perhaps my demand-side assumptions are different. As I see it, demand will still be way down, due to the disaster we get from NOT taking hard measures now...and that loss of demand (due to businesses, factories, and offices staying shut down) should pretty much offset our nuke generation.

I don’t know if nuke workers are now safely locked-in at their plants, yet, but if they are not, it’s probably too late now, and your prediction of being forced to shut them down will likely come true, as they’re hit with the virus, like most others.

[blueplum]

you just hit the weak link - they should have given the cruisers disinfectant stuff so they could clean their cabins each day. LIke you said long before, the ship became a petri dish.
I dunno if I buy 17 days. Did they ask the little virus how long it had been sitting on the railing or bathroom tap waiting for a ride? There were numerous infected staff on the DP, and also on the GP. All touching stuff as they went about their business and I bet at the least inspected the rooms to see if anything had been left behind or to close off balconies, make sure faucets were tight, etc. Staff can be nosy like that.

[PA Engineer]

For metabolism and genomics people.

Single cell RNA sequencing of 13 human tissues identify cell types and receptors of human coronaviruses

Gastrointestinal expression and transmission is obvious, however there may have been something to transmission via skin. This article adds to the ACE2 registry in The Protein Atlas and clarifies both protein and RNA expression. I'm still not seeing endocrine related symptomatic reports.

Data and analysis will be coming out over the next 18 months as this viral infection runs it's course.

[blueplum]

HONG KONG

Hong Kong appeared to have the coronavirus under control, then it let its guard down

On Monday, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced that all non-residents would be barred from the territory as of Wednesday, the latest addition to a raft of new measures...

In the week that followed the March 2 return to work, there were only five new cases in Hong Kong, most of which were imported. Numbers remained low until around March 16, when dozens of new cases were confirmed. It soon became clear that while the majority were coming from overseas, quarantine measures in place were not sufficient, and local transmission had resumed.
Since then, the city has been racing to get back on top of the outbreak, with draconian new controls put in place, including electronic tagging of all new arrivals, who must undergo a strict 14-day home quarantine, and could face criminal prosecution if they are found in breach of it...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hong-kong-appeared-to-have-the-coronavirus-under-control-then-it-let-its-guard-down/ar-BB11z2Ld?ocid=spartanntp

[PA Engineer]

Prolonged presence of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA in faecal samples

Faecal samples from 33 (45%) of 74 patients were negative for SARS CoV-2 RNA, while their respiratory swabs remained positive for a mean of 15·4 days (SD 6·7) from first symptom onset. Of the 41 (55%) of 74 patients with faecal samples that were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, respiratory samples remained positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA for a mean of 16·7 days (SD 6·7) and faecal samples remained positive for a mean of 27·9 days (10·7) after first symptom onset (ie, for a mean of 11·2 days [9·2] longer than for respiratory samples).

[datura]

So if fecal samples are positive, then plumbing vents can be vectors for new infections?

[PA Engineer]

Yes. I think that was the original findings from Singapore both SAR1 and 2. Makes sense.

[PA Engineer]

The description of "L" and "S."

On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic started in late December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and has since impacted a large portion of China and raised major global concern. Herein, we investigated the extent of molecular divergence between SARS-CoV-2 and other related coronaviruses. Although we found only 4% variability in genomic nucleotides between SARS-CoV-2 and a bat SARS-related coronavirus (SARSr-CoV; RaTG13), the difference at neutral sites was 17%, suggesting the divergence between the two viruses is much larger than previously estimated. Our results suggest that the development of new variations in functional sites in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike seen in SARS-CoV-2 and viruses from pangolin SARSr-CoVs are likely caused by mutations and natural selection besides recombination. Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved into two major types (designated L and S), that are well defined by two different SNPs that show nearly complete linkage across the viral strains sequenced to date. Although the L type (∼70%) is more prevalent than the S type (∼30%), the S type was found to be the ancestral version. Whereas the L type was more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, the frequency of the L type decreased after early January 2020. Human intervention may have placed more severe selective pressure on the L type, which might be more aggressive and spread more quickly. On the other hand, the S type, which is evolutionarily older and less aggressive, might have increased in relative frequency due to relatively weaker selective pressure. These findings strongly support an urgent need for further immediate, comprehensive studies that combine genomic data, epidemiological data, and chart records of the clinical symptoms of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

[Freedom of Speech Wins]

That isn’t supposed to be possible per doctors.

Could it not have been completely cured to begin with?

[blueplum]

Can you leave your county if a shelter-in-place order is in effect in the Bay Area?

[short answer: no. it’s a misdemeanor for now, unless it’s travel for essential business]

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Can-you-leave-your-county-shelter-in-place-order-15139878.php

[justa-hairyape]

New York Death Curves from Twitter

The updated death curves for New York @FT and @nytgraphics (<-11 PM ET)

If these don't flatten over the days ahead, New York would exceed Madrid and the Lombardy region as the worst region in the world for adverse #COVID19 outcomes https://t.co/eEEmtw4Ll9

[Paul R.]

Hi, All -- had MANY things to take care of yesterday including taking vehicle back to repair shop due to an apparent trans fluid leak from a recent deer clonking and said shop's repairs. So, I have not been able to follow everything, and some of my comments may be covered earlier.

This'll have to be "it" for tonight, and then I'll try to get back here in a day or two. Lotsa "Mom care" stuff to do, tomorrow... :-)

- - - - - - - -

KY now has COVID-19 from "end to end". (2 cases popped up in the Paducah area today.) Statewide restrictions went into effect this evening (3/23).

Unless Rand Paul took EVERY *expletive deleted* precaution that would be expected of any of us after being told we'd tested positive, he behaved like an irresponsible idiot, IMO. It was quite interesting to watch Dr. Birx so sweetly and thoroughly ream him for it at the presser today. I probably have some political disagreements with her, but when it comes to COVID-19 I've been very impressed with her so far. I think Trump has been too -- their interaction at that presser could not have been better had it been scripted and practiced repeatedly by top notch actors.

NYC continues to scare the crap out of me. As Dr. Birx said in today's presser, obviously virus seeding in numbers occurred earlier than originally thought. I might not have much in common with most of them, but Gov. Cuomo and his city's people need our prayers and our country's help. (What was that line from Babylon 5, as "Delenn" 'corrects' "Sheridan"? "I did not realize that similarity was required for the act of compassion.")

Singapore is doing it, so it is (at least was) doable.

S. Korea is hanging in there too, and is probably a better reference point, IMO. However, we could not do what either has done, the way they did it.

Specifically, and I've posted the article repeatedly (but will go find the link again if requested - pls. PM me), S. Korea has a level of routine citizen surveillance that is just mind-blowing, and would never be accepted here. (I calculated that just in the number of surveillance cameras, adjusted for NYC's population, it would equate to at least 70 MILLION surveillance cameras in NYC that the gov't could tap, apparently real time, or nearly so.) Plus the "Sorks" have contact tracing capability quite a bit better than ours, tho' I think that in a few months we could get close with an extensive effort to computerize and link our resources further. But, same thing - would we ever trust that sort of system used in the way the South Koreans have? Would we insist on warrants for each individual we wanted to track movements of, including potentially (potentially!) infected persons? And then what happens in other situations? Think of the possible, even likely abuses: There are plenty of legal and Constitutional issues to address...

As much as I hate to admit it, early on we should have enlisted the assistance of every "celebrity" possible to run PSA's about the seriousness of the situation, not going to large gatherings, practice safe hygiene (do funny skits, and maybe some not so funny skits, too), and so on.

Last, I know there is some controversy, but I have to believe N95 masks offer SOME additional protection from airborne virus particles, even though transmission by touch (hands) is more likely. SOMEBODY at CDC should have been looking at the national supply and supply capability very early on, if only as a "just-in-case" precaution, and we should have been ramping up production of comfortable* masks in a huge way by Feb. 1, not a piddly 30 million masks a week in freaking March. Every study ever done shows that a pathogen this infectious will hit at least some countries hard -- ultimately if we did have excess masks, they would not go to waste. China has a mask shortage too, and Chinese people know darn well a lot of their locally produced masks are 2nd rate: Offer up high quality US-made masks direct to Chinese consumers online, if nothing else. There's a huge Chinese middle class now...

*I only have 5 std. N95 masks - have used one so far in that run to town today, and one prior run several days ago. They help me a LOT to not touch my face. But I really have to grit my teeth at nose irritations and, well "boogers" that build up when one can't blow their nose after the mask has been on a while. (No matter what I do, there seem to be residual allergens or something in there.) Also these masks are very warm, even standing outside in calm 60 deg. F conditions, much more so in stores & such, with tendencies to fog up my glasses (esp. the near vision section of my trifocals -- try reading some #2 font ingredients info. then.) I suppose once spring gets warmed up, the fogging problem outdoors will diminish, but the overall "uncomfortably warm" bit will be much worse.* Plus sweat. Ugh.

*It won't be this bad, but I recall doing herbicide spraying for the Youth Conservation Corps 45+ years ago, wearing a protective mask, in 90+ degree heat (and high humidity to boot), wearing armored leggings and boots (snake defense), "Army" type long pants and long sleeve heavy shirts (spray defense), with gloves, going through high grass, with the herbicide tank on our backs. Each worker would spray for about 100 ft. and be "done", exhausted, drenched with sweat, gasping for breath through those dang sweat soaked cheapo masks they gave us: Rip off mask, tank and shirt, rest in shade 15 minutes, load up and do it again. At least the fellow in charge monitored us closely for heat exhaustion and we had a BIG cooler of cool water. Still, in pretty short order we were down to only 3 of us guys making runs, with the gals and a couple of the guys helping only with loading us up to go out. The good news was we got done B4 3 pm and got to go back to camp early!

Still, point is, masks in summer is not going to be fun, esp. if the ventilated type is still in short supply.

G'night, "All"!

[PA Engineer]

Yep. We are just beginning. The number of young cases was anticipated and I stick by the hypothesis of far greater negative outcomes from people with metabolic syndrome.

[PA Engineer]

Unless Rand Paul took EVERY *expletive deleted* precaution that would be expected of any of us after being told we'd tested positive, he behaved like an irresponsible idiot, IMO.

Quick point. These were activities he was doing before testing positive. He immediately quarantined himself after the results. More fake news that will never be taken back and seeded into the narrative.

[Freedom of Speech Wins]

ICU?

[Freedom of Speech Wins]

What are some of Cuomo’s main mistakes?

[datura]

I’m sorry - please be more specific?

[21twelve]

Some interesting differences in the data between the various places. Once this is over with there will be lots of studies done on how or why some places had lower rates than others.

I think the strain of the virus will be most of it. But also population density, cultural, etc.