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Why The Biophysicist Who Correctly Predicted China’s Virus Spread Says “We’ll Be Fine”
Hotair ^
| 03/23/2020
| Jazz Shaw
Posted on 03/23/2020 6:49:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
![](https://hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/w.jpg)
Anyone else out there getting tired of all the gloom and doom in the news regarding the spread of the virus? I know I certainly am. With that in mind, lets take a look at one person who is countering the common narrative describing 2020 as the End Times by saying that hes run the numbers multiple times and were going to be fine. This may not be just pie in the sky to make us feel better, either.
Michael Levitt is a Nobel Prize-winning Stanford biophysicist and someone who has been analyzing the pattern of infections and deaths since the virus first started picking up steam in January. The level of prescience he showed in predicting how this pandemic would roll out in both China and Italy is nothing short of amazing. Now hes been tracking the numbers here in the United States and hes concluded that this thing may be over sooner than previous predictions indicated. (LA Times)
Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.
Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.
While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply dont support such a dire scenario especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.
What we need is to control the panic, he said. In the grand scheme, were going to be fine.
Anyone can make predictions, but before we start paying too much attention to them we should look at their track record. Heres what Levitt predicted for China compared to what actually happened.
On February 1st, he predicted that the number of deaths in China would peak in three weeks and begin to decrease. 21 days later the published numbers peaked. At that time, he published his prediction that China would end up with around 80,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with about 3,250 deaths. By March 19, China recorded a total of 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths. As the linked report goes on to remind us, thats an unbelievable accuracy rate when youre talking about a country with 1.4 billion people.
Levitt believes that the number of cases in the United States is still increasing, but the rate of increase has already begun to slow. If that pattern continues and everyone gets on board with social distancing, we should hit a peak in a few weeks and then see a steady decline. Of course, he also warns us that it might not be the last peak, particularly if everyone goes back to normal interactions immediately.
His predictions may be helped by another bit of potentially good news. The CDC is still hopeful that the warmer weather of the summer will tamp down the coronavirus much the same way it does the flu. Of course, the news out of Australia (where its currently summer) doesnt seem to support that thus far. But if it does work out that way, it could give us another solid six months or so to get an effective vaccine or antiviral treatment approved and deployed.
Im definitely hoping that Dr. Levitt is as smart as we all hope he is. We could certainly use some good news at this point.
TOPICS: Health/Medicine; History; Science; Society
KEYWORDS: china; coronavirus; michaellevitt; spread
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To: BelleAl
Its not that Im a coward, I just dont want to add to the problem of an overloaded medical system. If they need the time to manage the outbreak, staying secluded is a part I can play. Im a Trump supporter and hes asking me to do this, so I will.”
Me too. Although I did stop at Home Depot to pick up a few things. But I stayed clear of people as much as possible.
To: SeekAndFind
22
posted on
03/23/2020 7:30:31 AM PDT
by
sauropod
(Fear can turn a human into an animal. Our speech is violence. Their violence is speech.)
To: SeekAndFind
Well, according to past doom and gloom Freeper predictions, we are now only 2 days away from Italy’s fate.
I specifically bookmarked these on March 11...
We are 2 wks behind Italy, period.
Dude, we are 2 wks from Italy. That’s it.
23
posted on
03/23/2020 7:32:48 AM PDT
by
Conserv
To: Leaning Right
Yes, they are— underground vids and reports are getting out of chicomland, and if they find the people getting it out— they will KILL them (inside their many detention locations with floor drains— FACT).
Murderous lying totalitarians— people BLOOMBERG and BIDEN are pals with- FACT.
Just like Mussolini (and Hitler, and Stalin)— the chi-coms change the reports. Mussolini declared all the Fascisti trains were always running on time— and VOILA! the stationmasters, conductors and even the engineers created the FAKE reports... of the impossibility of such a thing! True history.
The chi-coms are slaughtering their own people (like the Famine 195961. The entire country Great Leap Forward, 2355 million.
OK genius Biophysicist who accepts FALSE data— here’s a clue. The Chi-coms are murdering (under forced welded in their homes and elsewhere quarantine) every positive or even near symptomatic person—— and changing the cause of the Death for whatever shite counts they can Announce. Here’s how we also know... 21 million cell phones have gone dead.The Chinese STATE has a mandatory app on every cell phone for their slave citizens to be both tracked and also to ask for permission to go— anywhere. Violate the app vs. the tracking and.... arrested, most likely killed. Hence the 21 million inactive phones.
This is WAR, FRiends. And Nantzi and Chuckie Schumer KNOW this, and yet support these a@@holes.
24
posted on
03/23/2020 7:36:26 AM PDT
by
John S Mosby
(Sic Semper Tyrannis)
To: Leaning Right; SeekAndFind
Yes, they are— underground vids and reports are getting out of chicomland, and if they find the people getting it out— they will KILL them (inside their many detention locations with floor drains— FACT).
Murderous lying totalitarians— people BLOOMBERG and BIDEN are pals with- FACT.
Just like Mussolini (and Hitler, and Stalin)— the chi-coms change the reports. Mussolini declared all the Fascisti trains were always running on time— and VOILA! the stationmasters, conductors and even the engineers created the FAKE reports... of the impossibility of such a thing! True history.
The chi-coms are slaughtering their own people (like the Famine 195961. The entire country Great Leap Forward, 2355 million.
OK genius Biophysicist who accepts FALSE data— here’s a clue. The Chi-coms are murdering (under forced welded in their homes and elsewhere quarantine) every positive or even near symptomatic person—— and changing the cause of the Death for whatever shite counts they can Announce. Here’s how we also know... 21 million cell phones have gone dead.The Chinese STATE has a mandatory app on every cell phone for their slave citizens to be both tracked and also to ask for permission to go— anywhere. Violate the app vs. the tracking and.... arrested, most likely killed. Hence the 21 million inactive phones.
This is WAR, FRiends. And Nantzi and Chuckie Schumer KNOW this, and yet support these a@@holes.
25
posted on
03/23/2020 7:36:53 AM PDT
by
John S Mosby
(Sic Semper Tyrannis)
To: SeekAndFind
I’m all for optimism, but his is based on fake Chinese data.
To: Captain Compassion
You have a point. If people had the current attitude in the 1800s, the Westward Expansion would never have occurred and we would still be 13 colonies on the eastern seaboard.
27
posted on
03/23/2020 7:53:02 AM PDT
by
I-ambush
(One foot in the grave, one foot on the pedal I was born to rebel.)
To: Captain Compassion
When did the human race become such a pack of cowards? Hide the old and sick if you must but go out and live your lives.
I cannot speak about the rest of the world but the generation who fought World War II raised a generation of spoiled brats called the boomers who had everything handed to them and turned around and shit all over everything.
28
posted on
03/23/2020 8:08:41 AM PDT
by
wildcard_redneck
(If the Trump Administration doesn't prosecute the coup plotters he loses the election in 2020)
To: Leaning Right
While at the same time the Italians classify all deaths coronavirus.
To: John S Mosby
Got any data on that phone sh!t you are peddling?
To: 1FreeAmerican
Phone shit.... yeah-— you look it up. 21 million is the figure... and guess where the leak came from? Their hats are white. Bye.
31
posted on
03/23/2020 8:30:57 AM PDT
by
John S Mosby
(Sic Semper Tyrannis)
To: John S Mosby
You brought it up now back it up if you can! First I’ve heard of this. And give us some real data/info.
To: 1FreeAmerican
Indeed they do-— it is the Italian Communist run Health Ministry that is “not treating” anyone of now 60 y.o. or older, with ANY symptoms (concurrent with influenza in differential diagnosis- which they are no longer doing in re: this valence SARS2Cov variant). So— everyone dies “of coronavirus” so they can source funds for this diagnosis in a WHO pandemic. They are writing up and increasing the numbers on the invoice to the UN for their political suasion , which is socialist/communist.
Here,from 2013, and the number now is in excess of 250,000:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-sweatshop-insight-idUSBRE9BS04D20131229
Most of whom were allowed (there are chi-com block captains, labor managers sent with workers into Italy- who control their work visas, integral to the Italian labor leadership/political commissars) to go to China for the Chinese New Year... and to return to Italy, carrying a full load. Timelines on these dates coincide with the spread and overflow of all facilities,past capacity, and thus— care is rationed. I.E. no care at all- die at home).
W.H.O.... at the time was stating...” human transmission is NOT possible with this virus!” (it’s all over twitter, and being safely archived. The dude that heads WHO owes his job to the chi-coms).
33
posted on
03/23/2020 8:55:04 AM PDT
by
John S Mosby
(Sic Semper Tyrannis)
To: SeekAndFind
So the Chi-coms took the Dr’s projections and managed their reported numbers to match his projection. Interesting.
To: jimbug
They found the main vein.
35
posted on
03/23/2020 9:03:47 AM PDT
by
Leep
(Everyday is Trump Day!)
To: SeekAndFind
36
posted on
03/23/2020 9:25:21 AM PDT
by
SaxxonWoods
(Epstein pulled a Carradine, the bozo.)
To: ScottfromNJ
37
posted on
03/23/2020 9:26:28 AM PDT
by
SaxxonWoods
(Epstein pulled a Carradine, the bozo.)
To: ScottfromNJ
No, it’s based on an analysis of multiple countries, not just China. It just so happens that the curve in the other countries matches what you call fake.
China’s evil wasn’t underestimating cases. They hid the beginning of the outbreak, meaning the rest of the world got a late start, making things much worse.
The rate of infection increase levels is the key, and China isn’t an outlier when it comes to that.
The time it takes to peak, top, and drop is what Levitt is working on.
38
posted on
03/23/2020 9:30:14 AM PDT
by
SaxxonWoods
(Epstein pulled a Carradine, the bozo.)
To: SaxxonWoods
” It just so happens that the curve in the other countries matches what you call fake.”
Like Italy, Iran, Spain?
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