Corona Virus Daily Thread #24

[Mariner]

Daily thread #23 here:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3826809/posts?page=1

[LilFarmer]

That is what a dr we know in Houston is saying as well.

[Mariner]

Newsome emerges as the only Democrat standing.

[Black Agnes]

Amazon is hiring. So are most grocery chains. Full time pay wouldn’t be much but you might get healthcare?

[Mariner]

He’s busy ensuring the absolute domination of the logistics industry for Amazon.

One day everyone will work for him.

[miserare]

If they got their math right, that is very scary.

[semantic]

As any finance/numbers person knows, once you have a good baseline working model, it can be repeatedly modified & tweaked to produce different results based on different queries.

Wastoute (yes, my muse - he comes up with what's intuitively important to *him* as an MD) has some ideas about what the US total CV mortality will be by the end of March. As usual, it takes me around 24 hours to think about it until I finally understand what he's talking about. In this case, my curiosity was peaked about what kind of compound daily growth rates (CDGR) would it take to reach 1k, 2k and 5k US covid deaths by 3/31. Here are the results:

Note that US is currently at 25% CDGR over the last 23 days, so 2k+- total by 3/31 if the curve doesn't change?

Secondly, I was curious about the range of CDGRs required to hit US 50k (avg annual flu deaths?), 10x that (500k), and finally 3.3m (1% of US population), all within 90 days of the first US recorded death (Feb 29 -> May 28). Here are the results:

As you can see, the CDGR needs to come down from the current 25% over 23 days to a more manageable 8% to limit CV totals to typical annual flu mortality.

Also note that none of these models assume a peak/plateau before their respective time ranges under consideration run out. That's why it's critical to watch the daily totals. If/when a true peak is reached, then we can start modeling the end game.

As per usual, feel free to shoot me a PM if you want links to the actual models (Google sheets). You can modify, adjust, tweak, etc to your heart's content.

[LilFarmer]

Coronavirus in Georgia: 620 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 25 deaths

By: WSBTV.com News Staff
Updated: March 22, 2020 - 12:09 PM
GEORGIA — There are now 620 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Georgia and 25 deaths, as of 7 p.m. Sunday. That is up from 600 cases and 23 deaths as of 12 p.m. Sunday.
...
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/coronavirus-georgia-600-confirmed-covid-19-cases-23-deaths/4SYIFKN3NZEMREARQAJUCVHSRE/

[greeneyes]

Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection
***************************************************************************************
That’s quite an increase in mortality rates over what was initially reported, isn’t it?

[blueplum]

Uber and Lyft will likely be tapped for official business. So, I would explore the various delivery services to see if they need online dispatchers or local delivery people. 7-11 had an ad for ‘mobile services’ and there’s Amazon looking for people to set up delivery networks/dispatchers, so they only deal with one person not a thousand drivers. Postmates, Walmart, CVS pharms, Supermarkets, restaurants, etc. Anyone doing home deliveries of small product. Sign up as a 2020 census taker - chances are it will be by phone this year. Think of all the things done by phone (no, not solar installers, etc) and then chase those leads down. Just thinking off the top of my head.

Do you have a talent? can you mentor math? physics? piano? cooking? interpersonal skills? Parents needing time out will be looking for tutors for their at-home kids. Look to see what other people charge for this to set your rates.

[RaceBannon]

at our age, that’s a blessing

[RaceBannon]

Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973?query=featured_home

[frank ballenger]

Thanks for that report. Most of us aren’t out much.

You don’t happen to have a tip on where toilet paper was heading, do you? The four squad car escort always gives them away.

Cheap vinyl banner for Friendly Dry Cleaners flapping over the old truck logo that still says Charmin.

[cgbg]

Good point—but is that really the plan?

(could get warm in metro Palm Springs, might need AC—lol)

[Black Agnes]

Looks like our main hope right now are those antivirals.

And being introverts for a bit.

[Jane Long]

Sure seems like that is his priority, right now, doesn’t it?

[blueplum]

They may be waiting for food, as TS limit the number of people in the restaurant.

https://www.wbrc.com/2020/03/20/truck-drivers-having-difficult-time-getting-meals/

https://tampa.cbslocal.com/2020/03/19/truckers-navigate-obstacles-while-keeping-supply-chains-running-during-coronavirus-pandemic/

https://cdllife.com/2020/its-hard-for-truckers-to-get-a-meal-right-now-these-people-are-helping/

https://cdllife.com/2020/no-plans-to-delay-3-day-trucker-inspection-blitz-for-covid-19-cvsa-says/

Group asks Trump to help truckers during Coronavirus emergency
One of their big asks is for shippers and receivers to have the “basic decency” to allow trucker to use their restroom facilities.
https://cdllife.com/2020/group-asks-trump-to-help-truckers-during-coronavirus-emergency/

[Black Agnes]

We make a point to buy from other companies.

I just don’t like giving money to the wonky eyed MFer. Sorry not sorry.

[Mariner]

“Sure seems like that is his priority, right now, doesn’t it?”

I can’t think of one more basic, or more important.

[PA Engineer]

Yes. I think it is going to be exceptionally bad here with a 46% incidence of metabolic syndrome. That is another reason for flattening the caseload. It is not going away until there is a vaccine.

[blueplum]

nobody’s put it into policy that I know of, but who knows what tomorrow will bring once someone reads FR lol.

As hill and rural people know, most small towns don’t have the gas/grocery/infrastructure to handle urbanites on more than an occasional day-tourist basis. For them, this will be a test of policy towards bug-outs. And a wakeup call for those thinking bugging out to an unknown area, where there is no familial-support system already in place, is a good idea.