Posted on 03/22/2020 10:17:36 AM PDT by Mariner
Daily thread #23 here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3826809/posts?page=1
#24
Good day all, Happy Sunday.
I enjoy “what if” scenarios so I have been trying to imagine what a “power” through” scenario looks like.
Health care system gone to third world status for sure, probably 1800s.
That means the death rate would rise to 7-8% of infected folks, and the death rate from all other causes would double or triple during the period.
Folks collapsing in their offices, in their vehicles, in mass transit.
Many folks refuse to show up to work—call in sick even if they are healthy. That would include health care workers, first responders of all sorts.
Then the federal and local governments would have to draft people into critical functions and order them to work at gunpoint.
The economy would crash and burn—probably to depression levels.
But—in a few months it would be over.
Needless to say any public officials at any level would need to flee far far away and never return.
Great SF stuff....
I gotta say, Cuomo is good at this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9dq2L4UDwk
“Nightmare scenario.”
With a little imagination anyone can turn every situation into the end of the world. And get to the end of the world via 3 different routes for each.
Mariner’s axiom.
TX
Burnet County has it’s first case of CV.
Yes, it would be over in a few months.
It would take generations to recover. If really ever.
Think Rome’s collapse. But in a month or two, not several generations.
How long before we had municipal water supplies again? nearly 2000 years...
Ditto decent roads.
How many of the 40 somethings would die also? Probably lots. They survive now because we HAVE ventilators for them and they’re young enough to recover IF they have a ventilator. Without vents they’d die just like the 70yr olds.
The 40-60yr olds are the biggest taxpaying demographic there is. If 5%-10% of them are dead or so ill long term they can’t return to productivity what does that do to our economy all by itself?
Movement start #Cuomo for President 2020
It’s not really imganation.
Lots and lots has been written about what happens if those risk derivatives unwind all at once.
nntaleb is a good one to follow on this.
“The ‘power through it’ guys fail to realize that IF they take that path they WILL destroy the economy.”
At all levels, from the national down to the personal, making decisions in this environment is like trying to navigate your way through a minefield with a metal detector that works only some of the time.
According to Worlometers, 12,339 new cases in New York today so far.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Sen Rand Paul is postive for Covid-19
Lest anyone mistake me for supporting Cuomo, here is a reminder on how anti-American he is re: illegal immigration:
Rand Paul tested positive.
Angela Merkel in quarantine, doctor who gave her pneumococcus vaccine shot on Friday as tested positive for Covid-19
Bkmk
This is my position too.
Quarantine those at risk and let the rest of us get infected, and recover, as fast as possible. That will also help those at risk. There will always be deaths but prolonging how long the virus stays around will also cause increased death counts.
I don’t think people understand just how much of our economy is driven by day-to-day activities. Even rare events, like buying a car, will be put on hold if we’re all in lock-down. So big ticket sales plummet, restaurants go under, jobs lost for 10’s of millions.
The cure results in being far worse than the disease. We’re already getting a handle on how to treat this thing. At some point, we’ll just have to treat it like a normal flu and live our lives.
“What if” proof of bioweapon use was released, and the US was put on a war footing as in WWII. Declare China as our enemy. Cold War on steroids- avoid hot war if possible.
Chinese interests in the US nationalized, instant decoupling. Refuse entry to all Chinese goods. Manufacturing economy, not service.
Realign the world economy, and send China back to the 60’s.
There are lots of ways to look at the future, let’s pray for the best.
Skagit County investigating 'cluster' of coronavirus cases linked to a meeting
Some sort of meeting.
Details I got from another source were 58 attended. 11 or 12 confirmed. 22 suspected.
Looking at the wrong numbers, my FRiend.
No nation has stopped this virus—all some of them have done is hit the pause button.
There is no vaccine. There is no immunity.
Even if we get the death toll under some sort of control (with meds of various sorts) the health care system will still be overwhelmed with very sick patients beyond anyone’s wildest imagination.
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