Posted on 03/21/2020 9:34:18 AM PDT by Mariner
Yesterday's thread here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3826523/posts?page=1
They will quarantine the hotspots...eventually....always a day late and a dollar short with this virus.
“Nov and Dec”
In November it was still too early for any significant spread including to Italy, as the first case, patient zero, in Wuhan was November 17. Cases that early would have been literally single digits by the end of November in Italy due to incubation periods. Barring a super spreader.
At a 2 day doubling rate (not realistic, but for the sake of argument) the number of total cases from Wuhan would have been about 60 by the end of November, most presymptomatic. So if there were Wuhanic Plague cases in November in Italy, there were so few they would not have been noticed.
Don’t confuse me with the FluBros, but November was really early to generate enough cases and squeeze in a couple of incubation periods and get it to Italy enough to be noticed.
December you have a better argument for, I concede that.
But in Wuhan they had at least a 10 day head start.
By and large, though, once this thing was loose, there would have been a lot of Pneumonia cases that were not flu related that would not have been identified as the Wuhanic Plague. There were even reports of a surge of such around the right time. Read it here on FRT, even. Maybe they will test some of them to do some forensics and shut down the Chinese propaganda regarding where it came from.
It came from China. It did not come from Italy, the US or anywhere else.
Pneumonia happens, so the statement made by China that “pneumonia like symptoms appeared in Nov and Dec of last year in #Italy” is certainly true, but they were also certainly not Wuhanic Plague early on, they were regular pneumonia and China is trying to muddy the waters with half-truths.
Sigh. I haven’t looked at today’s numbers yet. I don’t want to. It’s tragically depressing.
I will return to standard, expected titles today.
More video from inside the hospitals during the Coronavirus pandemic in Spain. Please take some time today to pray for all mankind. 🙏pic.twitter.com/YAXsDwJjjN— Bruce Porter, Jr. (@NetworksManager) March 22, 2020
“New York State has tested 61,401 people”
And 1/4 are positive. The highest ratio we’ve heard so far.
I dont even know what to think of this story
‘I walk a fine line’: Dr. Fauci reveals he has to force Trump to accept facts and that correcting his mistakes in public is a ‘risky business’ - but he tries not to embarrass President by saying ‘you’re wrong’
They’ve finally figured out what the costs associated with this thing will do to the health care systems.
And not just death paneling the over 60’s.
The costs of keeping the taxpaying demographic alive.
There is derivative risk underwriting OUR OWn insurance system that if unwound too quickly would make the ‘08 crash look like a bounced check to the local ice cream parlor.
“Re-infection leading to organ collapse means that everyone, everyone will die from it. And a vaccine is not possible.”
If there really are reinfections, it is more likely that immunities developed are strain specific.
I was pretty sure that one strain would immunize you against both of them, but Doctor X (my contact that will remain nameless so some FluBro doesn’t doxx him) told me that was not necessarily true. He also said it looks like the strains have different lethalities, but by how much they differ is unclear.
For simplicity’s sake we might as well assume we have two simultaneous pandemics (*) going on and hope that the HCQ+AZT treatment is widely effective against both.
Meanwhile, containment efforts will save lives while countermeasures are developed and deployed.
GDP has been halved, while borrowing makes up the difference.
The US can do this only once. After that the virus wins.
Burnet County, TX has it’s first case.
I do actually trust Trump.
The GDP pales in comparison to the amount of derivative risk underwriting our insurance companies.
Really, it does.
New Jersey is reporting a higher ratio, but I think their testing numbers can’t be right because they have drive up testing centers that are probably not reporting in real time.
UT needs to shut down for the semester.
Those dorms need to be emptied, cleaned out and readied for use.
The problem with using chloroquine is you may survive but not build strong immunity. So you could get it again and again.
Imagine a cat5 hurricane hitting the insurance companies everywhere at once.
What happens when they fail and go TU?
https://www.amazon.com/Insurance-Underwriting-Derivatives-Liability-Management/dp/0471492272
“yes virginia, the world has changed.”
In time, this too will pass.
I just hope not most of us with it. (half kidding)
Tomorrow I will cancel/reschedule my elective procedure at the hospital. I was waiting for them to call me, to see if/when they would, but I’d have to start prep for it on Monday or Tuesday, anyway, so it would be inconvenient to wait longer and have them reschedule it after I’ve already started.
Insurance Cos hedge against hedges.
One of the problems with “the plan” is that people are going to be freaked out in two opposite directions by June:
—Needing and wanting to go back to work and resume “normality”.
—Fear of the virus and its impact on family members (which will be super-obvious by then)
I have no clue how folks will react when the “all clear” is signaled...
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