The UK his tacking the rise in cases in Italy almost exactly, just 2 weeks behind them.
Posted on 03/20/2020 7:28:07 PM PDT by NRx
Let's not forget the large number of immune-compromised HIV+ people there.
Think that through again please?
What are the case that have completed the full course of the disease process?
What percentage of the ones who are no longer sick recovered?
What percentage of the ones who are no longer sick died?
Those numbers add up to 100%
If the only people who get tested are the ones admitted to the hospital in serious condition, your mortality rate will seem very high.
Be very very careful...
Arguably this doesn't count people who aren't sick enough to seek medical care, but when in all of recorded history have they been counted among the sick?
(I beg an exception for some of the FR poseurs posters who are using the entire population of the Earth as the denominator! I doubt history will record them.)
Yes you’re a data analyst but not a medical person that has to work with numbers the way I have to, speaking with competent doctors who explain this stuff to me. They are scared!
There is no proof that people are “catching it again”, they may be relapsing because they never cleared the virus in the first place! Even regular influenza folk thought to be on the mend relapse. Even so the number of such covid relapses so far in terms of recovered persons is very low and whether or not such cases are considered as a separate case may be subject to each nation’s reporting requirements and are part of the statistical noise we find beyond the decimal points in the 100ths and thousandth’s places that we round off from to get our measured percentage points rounded to a a 10th’s place.
Even if they ended up being reinfections, they are low in number and they might still be considered as a new case with new dynamics which will either progress again to recovery or death.
In other words reinfections wouldn’t change the way the math should be figured depending on how they were counted unless the numbers become significant in the thousands...but there again...had they really recovered?** If not, it would be logically consistent to subtract them from the numbers of resolved cases and list them back as active ongoing cases again.
The bulk of recovering persons will stay recovered, the death rates will pad downward. Again I say the US data reflects an abrupt upward shift in existing corona cases but only because it reflects an increase of testing of cases already suspected and finds ongoing cases that have been goin on for the past 5 to 20 days.
How that shakes out in terms of actual need for hospitalizations, we won’t know for at least a week or two. If hospitals actually start getting super slammed then we know it isn’t just an anomaly of early useless data but that the virus is spreading. I expect an upward spike in positives, when the superslam occurs, beyond our early test data. If there is a capping off of ongoing cases and a rough equilibrium occurs of case closures to new diagnoses(dead and recovered) then we’ll know that the disease has hit a peak and we should soon start to see more case closures vs diagnoses.
Hopefully, those who have recovered will depress the percentage curves of those who will have died. When the statisticians 100years from now measure the TOTAL CASE rate from the final death rate of the great 2020 corona virus pandemic, the final mortality rates might just be be in that 1.3 percent rate you have touted (though hopefully much less)...unless the American total case rate tops 10 million persons....then in that case 130000 souls will have died of it.
**Criteria for reinfection for covid don’t quite exist unless we are testing for sub strains that are different than what infected one before. The suspicion is that a person seemingly getting it again within a week or two prior clearance may not have actually cleared the virus. It may raise the possibility that the virus may become latent in some folks the way Hep c, hep B or Epstein Barr virus does; if that is found to be the case as they study this virus(remember all the research is new and ongoing....we don’t much about long term after effects yet)then the concern will be if such persons will potentially be aerosol spreaders of the virus for the rest of their lives...
kind regards....
Ps: Don’t count the China numbers...https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1241082360323596289
A lot of Chinese phone numbers seem to have gone off line in the past 2 months...15 million in fact!
Oh I don’t think that will hold. Need more numbers and those deaths include the bunch that died early in Washington state. Let’s watch what happens in NYC where they are getting and actual bunch of admissions, not just positive tests for disease that may already be in decline in a bunch of people.
I haven’t seen the definition of “recovered” but am assuming it means “admitted to hospital, and survived”.
A lot will depend on how bad a case you need to have before they will admit you, particularly in an overstressed medical system.
Anyway, the real, accurate, denominator must be “number who have been infected, even if they only develop mild symptoms”. We currently have no way to determine this number. We can only guess.
I’m guessing it scales with the number seeking medical attention.
I’ve seen estimates all over the map.
A lot of the confirmed mild cases are being sent home and told rest, fluids, Tylenol, and call us if you start having trouble breathing. Most seem to recover just fine, but I wonder how many are counted as recoveries.
The official numbers give a worst case maximum fatality rate.
I bet history will record half that rate. As to how may died in China or Iran, we’ll never know. Not my problem...
Are you a journalist? You talk like one.
Pastor told me once you needed to know the campers from the counselors before you got to summer camp/
It appears the world is full of campers.
Thank you for giving us the benefit of your expertise.
Again, thank you.
Excellent.
Fair question but the other question is how many unknown positives out their who are not being tested....?
The sudden crush of admissions for severe respiratory distress and pneumonia will tell us more!
The world isn't required to tolerate your personality disorders. That would include FR.
When the CDC calculates the fatality rate for the generic flu, they add a rather large estimated number of unreported cases, i.e., people who sought no medical assistance and let the virus run its course at home. The fatality rate for the generic flu is .1%.
In the case of the Wuhan virus the standard calculation by the WHO and others has been to take the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases. The denominator is much smaller because there is no inclusion of the estimated number of unreported cases. Perhaps Birx is adding her own estimate of unreported Wuhan virus cases to arrive at the .7% number.
Clearly, just using the number of fatalities divided by the number of confirmed cases is wrong and misleading. There must be a huge number of people who had the virus and never sought medical treatment. They were either asymptomatic or had a mild case.
The latest fatality figures from the Johns Hopkins tracker has 234 deaths for the UK on March 22. Clearly, the UK is not on the same track as Italy.
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