[scouter]

I think we continue to double every two days. Who was keeping that data?

I've been keeping the data since 2/28. Since then, we have been increasing at a rate of 31.3% per day, through yesterday.

However, the rate of increase has has itself been increasing, and it's NOT due simply to expanded testing, although I'm sure that's part of it. But the rate of increase was itself increasing before all the test kits were made available.

As of about 11:45 pm EST yesterday, 3/19, the Average Daily Increase of confirmed cases was 31.3% per day, and 673.7% per week.

Based ONLY on those rates of increase, the projected number of confirmed cases by the end of today will be 18,597. At this moment, we're at 18,121. My experience is that 1) the numbers jump in the late evening, at about 10:00 pm EST, and 2) that my daily projected increase (i.e., number of NEW cases) is typically between 20% and 40% low.

So my best guess is: 1) by midnight tonight (EST) we'll have very close to 20,000 confirmed cases, if not more, and 2) we will have over 100,000 confirmed cases by 3/26/20.

[LilFarmer]

Ga is still tracking doubling every 2 days:

3/6 - 3
3/7 - 5
3/8 - 7
3/9 - 12
3/10 - 17
3/11 - 20
3/12 - 32
3/13 - 42
3/14 - 64
3/15 - 99
3/16 - 121
3/17 x 141
3/18 - 197
3/19 -
3/20 - 420

[Mariner]

thanks scouter, you’re doing good and important work.

our CDC will not inform us of this.

[SheepWhisperer]

I was

[SheepWhisperer]

The US rate of confirmed cases was very constant at b doubling every two days, since February 20. It changed to almost every three days last week, I suspect, because of limited testing consistency and problems with kits.

However, the rate in the last week remains fairly close to every 2.3 days.

I can go back to the spreadsheet and full in previous dates up to current if anyone questions this.

[Badboo]

At that rate April is going to be a bat to the head.

[Pollard]

Chart from ft.com - America to the top baby