Posted on 03/18/2020 2:22:53 AM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
The Netherlands will aim to develop immunity to coronavirus among its population by allowing large numbers to contract the illness at a controlled pace, prime minister Mark Rutte announced in a national address on Monday.
“The reality is that in the near future a large part of the Dutch population will be infected with the virus,” Mr Rutte said. “We can slow down the spread of the virus while building controlled group immunity.”
“It can take months or even longer to build group immunity, and during that time we need to shield people at greater risk as much as possible.”
The idea of developing group immunity to coronavirus, also known as Covid-19, is controversial. It has been supported by Sweden’s state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell and Britain’s chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance. But the World Health Organisation (WHO) has questioned its basis in evidence.
(Excerpt) Read more at irishtimes.com ...
The Europeans are blaming the severity of the disease on so many young ( under 40’s are now in half the ICU beds in Italy) on their use of ibuprofen
It scares me for my kids
Modeling from Imperial College London seems to show the only path to future stability could be suppression....up to 18 months of quarantines and isolations, maybe managed with breaks between waves of virus reemergence, until there is an effective vaccine.
https://imgur.com/gallery/HAHU4vg
Listen to hear if and when the word “ suppression” makes it into the briefings
Look at the numbers out of Dallas, this morning.
Several in their 20s- 40s and....being hospitalized :(
The real existential question is: What is the ultimate cost the USA is willing to pay in order to maintain its traditional American way of life? You know, the one that promotes and protects liberty, freedom and the pursuit of happiness?
I seem to recall that under no scenario was it ever contemplated that we would concede to Soviet domination. That is, losses nearing the total population were *still* an acceptable risk. After all, that's why government continuity plans were crafted: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_continuity_of_operations
So, the question should be asked as to when/why that sentiment ended? Is it now official US policy or has it just morphed into some kind of subtle public acceptance? Let's assume CV is bio weapon with significant short & long term health implications. Doesn't that still suggest that a balanced, measured approach should consider all important ramifications, including civil rights, due process and the entire reason for existence as a free person?
Why is it that leaders from a few generations were able to "man up" and make important decisions regarding the fate of the nation? If we destroy not only our economic capabilities, but our social and cultural way of life, then what's the point?
Here’s a (direct) link to the Imperial College London model...
These will all be great discussions once we have cleared up the mess. What we need to do now is what we are doing and see if we can’t keep everything in large urban centers from going to total hell. If the big hospitals get over run (remember ten blue people per hour and it won’t be a “hospital” anymore) we may be able to squeak through the next three weeks. If the mega sports arenas start getting turned into temporary morgues and start getting filled up every one’s opinions will change.
“You know, the one that promotes and protects liberty, freedom and the pursuit of happiness?”
You forgot LIFE. It’s life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Without life first, the other two are irrelevant.
And at this moment in time it is staying alive that most people are concerned about. Once that concern is allayed, the other two yearnings will return. No I’m not worried that we’ll become the Soviet Union.
But let’s make you the leader, what policies would you be implementing now?
This is really the crux of the issue. Why is Trump unilaterally making decisions effecting the entire country? WWII was a declaration of war by Congress. Once it was duly authorized - by the People - then the executive was enabled to work in capacity to achieve the desired ends.
A balanced, measured approach that attempts to protect all groups (to some degree) should be subject to a vigorous public debate. Let the people collectively decide if they want to live in a large virtual gulag, complete with armed guards (empowered bureaucrats) barking orders at them.
Or, perhaps a national debate determines: (a) minors aka school children should be limited to groups of 10-25; (b) working age adults - the very heart of our economic system - should be provided with reliable data to make informed risk decisions; and (c) the elderly & infirm are isolated and provided with additional care.
Right now, no one seems willing to ask any really big existential questions, which as you noted include life. However, life isn't just a physical experience; it's also one wed to philosophical reasons.
Ask yourself this: if (physical) life was so important, then why not live on a drip in a jail cell?
But, we could also have a general explaining in great detail the visual/sensory impact of sending massed troops 'over the top' in WWI, or launching a sea borne assault on Iwo.
What do you think the reaction was from Truman and his advisers as they reviewed the results of both Japan and ongoing testing? Did they turn to each other and determine that after all, yes it was actually better to live as subjects of the USSR?
That's why I continue to suggest that any debate should accept the 5% total population number: 15-20 million dead. Once we have an agreed consensus as to worst case scenario - with all the attendant horrors you are trying to convey - then perhaps we can begin to discuss the fundamental question of: Why?
What exactly is the point of this strange, weird experience we call life? Is to simply eat, breath, screw, shit and die, or is there something else? And if there is something else, what's the price of achieving it?
“Or, perhaps a national debate determines...”
The national debate is on going. We’re having it right here. But arriving at a consensus takes a lot of time. In a case like this you need to take quick action to slow things down to gain some time. That’s the reason for the war powers act.
“Ask yourself this: if (physical) life was so important, then why not live on a drip in a jail cell?”
Ask yourself this, if you’re not alive do you have or care about anything else? Life is a necessary condition to everything else. The guy in jail with the drip still posseses a choice to live or die depending on how he sees his prospects. A dead person has no such choice.
Today the total deaths here is 116. Up from 90 yesterday. The # of deaths per day has been doubling every two days. It’s premature to say what that means with so little data. If we have 39 deaths today we are starting to see a trend. If we have 50 the next day...
The serum treatment only provides temporary protection derived from antibodies present in the blood of a survivor. That temporary respite gains more time toward developing other treatment options. Also potentially reduces acute demand upon ICU wards.
The Netherlands is one of the most densely populated countries in Europe, so I could see it getting bad there.
So if the spread of the virus is occurring at the same rate, and I don’t see any reason not to, the number of new infected is also doubling every two days. If 86% of the infected are asymptomatic and three orders of magnitude larger than the dead, what the number of dead today tells us is what the number of asymptomatic was ten days ago, giving the dead an average of 5 days to become ill and another 5 to die. So the number that get infected to day will be three orders of magnitude larger than the dead in ten days, if what we have done the last 5 days has not been effective.
It will also facilitate the demographic replacement of European Dutch that much faster.
And cost as much as colonizing Mars.
Do you think they might represent reasonably accurate or reliable data sets that could potentially present decent guidance information?
Don’t know about saving the life part, but intravenous ciprofloxacin surely makes a difference of perception in only 20 minutes of treatment.
Data from cruise ships may be meaningless. I read since they got slammed by Norovirus lawsuits they have made cruise ships as sterile as operating rooms. We’re passengers quarantined in their rooms or not? I don’t recall hearing.
I have been posting for days, the number to look at is new deaths by day. It’s doubling every two days. “But this is just a flu!”. No. It’s not.
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