Skip to comments.Coronavirus Live Thread. No 12
Posted on 03/08/2020 3:05:23 PM PDT by Vermont Lt
Continuation of the thread.
I am Italian and my remarks were not meant to be anything against Italians however when having our HUGE family dinners together is definitely different than an American family sitting down to dinner together, just sayin from experience we SHARE everything our fingers are always in our food ect.
That is what I have read for a similar coronavirus.
If people want to quarantine their mail form two weeks fine - it is not based on the latest scientific evidence available.
Dr. Fauci: Vulnerable People Should Not Travel as Outbreak Worsens
By Sandy Fitzgerald | Monday, 09 March 2020 01:21 PM
The elderly and people with underlying medical issues should suspend all their travel plans immediately and should definitely not get on a cruise ship as the coronavirus epidemic continues to spread, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Monday.
“People with the underlying conditions need to distance themselves from crowds, not travel, not get on long air flights and certainly not get on a cruise ship,” Fauci said on Fox News’ “Fox and Friends.” “If you look at the people who wind up getting into serious difficulty and even dying, that’s very heavily weighted toward individuals with underlying conditions, particularly the elderly.”
Further, he said the most important thing for Amercians to do is continue to pay attention to the evolving situation.
“There are things that we know and there are things that we don’t know,” Fauci said. “We know that the most vulnerable people in our society right now are those people with the underlying conditions ... if you are within that category now you should start distancing yourself from social functions where there are a lot of people.”
Fulton County Schools employee has COVID-19; impacted schools immediately dismissed
I couldn’t figure out from the article what exactly they were doing; they said asymptomatic “cases” as if they were people who tested positive, but didn’t have symptoms; but I figured every person on board would be quarantined.
It appears, although we do not know, that the infection started with a number of crew members, one or more who apparently picked it up from a previous cruise.
Only 2 passengers so far have tested positive, but we’ll know more in 3 days as they are going to test every person.
This will be a great test case for how easy the virus spreads. We know that cruise ships are one of the worser-case scenarios (poorly run and sanitized senior centers seem to be worst-case).
The numbers from the Diamond Princess are “encouraging”. They tested virtually everybody (4061 tests). Of that number, 705 tested positive, or about 17%. IN a bad-case scenario, where nobody knew what was happening at the start, they had 17% spread, even when there were hundreds of people to spread it.
More interestingly, of that number, it appears 400+ were asymptomatic, which means they would not have been tested if not for being on the ship. Seven have died so far.
so, without full testing, you would have thought that about 300 people had it, and 7 of those died, for 2.3% death rate.
But with 700 tested positive, the death rate is 0.99%.
On this new cruise ship, with better insight and better quarantine methods, we had 21 cases so far out of 4000 people. Once we have full testing, we’ll know how much it spread, and that can give us better clues as to how “viral” this virus actually is, amongst a tightly packed crowd of people, some of whom are being careful about germs.
“Im wondering if hyperinsulinemia (linked to t2d and hypertension) is the underlying cause of the risk factor that connects the two.”
Yea, and if it is, taking insulin shots likely doesn’t help things (but no, I’m not giving anyone medical advice here).
seeing how 82 crew members were infected, might want to start testing with the crew first? Worldwide crew testing. Then check their bank accounts for red envelope gifts from the CCP.
confirms a #coronavirus patient in critical condition at Hospital of the University of Penn is a cardiologist from CHOP King of Prussia facility. Latest live:
Lochner was built for this. The Blazing Press guy though seems to be losing it a little. Yeah buddy you were right. Now get back to Press.
“Ive wondered for years why Skype wasnt more popular for things that didnt absolutely positively involve f2f meetings.”
Just my opinion, but when you have face-to-face meetings, you really just have one passageway to communicate, one at a time. Stick 20 people in a room, and often you’ll have multiple small discussions going on simultaneously, along with the main discussion.
Except kids mostly don’t get it—they’re the silent carriers. So maybe when the grandfather of the first child who gets it dies.
I dont know except that Georgia was one of the first five states that was going to be able to do their own testing way back when, maybe they still had tests from that initial rollout?
Maybe because of Atlanta International Airport?
Big INL hub.
Density is only part of the equation. There’s also the amount of travel Americans do. Not just internationally but short getaways.
Our neighborhood has more weekend rentals than not. There was an up tick in vacationers this last weekend. It explodes during spring break (next weekend) and doesn’t slow down until Labor Day through Thanksgiving. Every weekend we get another chance of catching CV. The people who live here permanently tend to leave to get away from the weekenders so they may bring CV back themselves.
Apples and oranges. But important anyway. People here “3.4%”, and they think “if I am exposed, I’m going to die”.
So having some idea of the fatality rate among people who are actually exposed is important.
ESPECIALLY since we are entering a phase where we are going to do widespread testing of groups of people who were exposed, rather than groups that show symptoms.
My best example now is the first cruise ship. Tested everybody. The results, about 705 positives, and of those, 410 were asymptomatic, meaning they wouldn’t have been tested normally. That leaves 295 tested with symptoms.
Now, 295 sypmtomatic, and 7 deaths, gives you a “death rate” of about 2.4%.
But if you heard that they found 705 cases on the ship, and knew the “2.4%” number, you would think that there were 17 people dead.
So, that other number, total mortality rate, is important, especially for public perception.
And frankly, the important number is that it is below 1%. For some reason, people think that the flu is nothing, even though it kills 1 out of every thousand people who get symptoms or more, meaning 10s of thousands of people are dying, yet only 40% get the vaccine.
But people assume that if they get coughed on by someone with coronavirus, they will 100% get infected, and have a 3% chance of dying. Neither of those are true, but it is how the media is presenting this.
Someone need to come up with an app that deals with that.
I could not find the Diamond Princess positive test age data, but I did find this article about children spreading the virus to others:
I will note that it's not just the media that is suggesting/implying this.
I was exposed to 200 adult Asians and a busload of 100 Chinese kids staying in my same Hotel. At what appears to be Ground Zero in Cali. Ground Zero Nationally appears to be Seattle. But I am out of quarantine with normal temps ! Getting ready for another trip. Lol.
I would argue that something that is speculative cannot be “the worst thing”, saying “the worst thing about” suggests that the speculation is a known fact.
on the contrary, looking at current infections, it appears that this virus IS impacted by warm weather, and it would be surprising if it wasn’t. Hardly any cases in the southern hemisphere, and some of those are people who traveled to places where the virus was. And the philipines, which had a real outbreak, doesn’t seem to have nearly the spread that we see in other places.
Note that A/C puts lots of people inside buildings where spread can happen, so just having “high heat” outdoors is not salvation.
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