Corona Virus Live Thread 2/16 to 27

2/16/2020

[Vermont Lt]

Continuation of previous thread.

[justa-hairyape]

Why on earth would the real numbers be lower ?

[mrsmith]

Yes.
But if isolation wards are all you can do it’s better than having infected in the population.

[In_Iowa_not_from]

First, the prevailing diagnostic test for COVID-19 may be only 30 to 40 percent accurate. Some carriers who took the diagnostic test were falsely cleared and erroneously excluded from the official tally.

Second, the diagnostic test itself is scarce. Tests are rationed for the most obviously symptomatic patients. But carriers can be asymptomatic. And they can be contagious before they even show signs of infection.

Third, Chinese hospitals have been overwhelmed with patients. Some people were turned away at the door. Others waited in day-long triage. The sickest may have been too weak to even attempt a hospital visit. Others were deterred from treatment by the wait times and shortages, so they self-quarantined. Yet only those who obtained medical treatment and also tested positive for the virus were included in the official tally.

Fourth, resources and public attention have concentrated on Wuhan, a city of 11 million, where the first cases of COVID-19 were reported. However, tens of millions more live in Wuhan’s surrounding province, Hubei, which is less equipped with healthcare services. To the extent uncounted cases exist in Wuhan, more uncounted cases exist in Wuhan’s exurbs.

Fifth, on top of these logistical challenges, politics also prevents an accurate appraisal. China’s communist government is a totalitarian, one-party state. The party justifies its monopoly by promising social stability and economic growth. News of an outbreak threatens both objectives, so the party has an existential interest in suppressing bad news.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/lew-olowski-coronavirus-worse-than-reported-heres-how-china-is-making-the-situation-worse

[ETCM]

The most recent assessment is that the Wuhan Flu is much more contagious than ordinary flu viruses but is not quite as deadly.

It is more contagious than most influenza strains, with an estimated R₀ of 2+ vs influenza R₀ of 1.5. Whoever said it was less deadly was misquoted or misspoke. It most definitely has a higher mortality rate, and a significant portion of those infected end up in ICU.

Hopefully, the current efforts to slow and stop the spread will be enough to prevent a global pandemic. Then, everyone outside China can sit back and say, "see, not even as bad as the flu". I don't think you will ever hear those words in China, even though far more Chinese people die every year from influenza/pneumonia than COVID-19 has killed so far.

[TomGuy]

Significant increase in deaths. Was 1670, now 1770:

There are currently 71,223 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,770 fatalities.

Last update: 16 February 2020 at 5:47 p.m. ET

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

==

[zeestephen]

-Outside Mainland China-

780 confirmed cases

5 Deaths

-Excluding Hong Kong-

723 confirmed cases

4 Deaths

I am modestly optimistic that - five weeks after the epidemic became obvious - the infection rate and the death rate appear to be much lower in medically advanced Western countries.

[laplata]

That’s true.

[BobL]

“The damage wrought by Nixon/Kissinger is ongoing and incalculable in its breadth.”

It was like giving a typical 5 year old a loaded gun. Perhaps next time we will WAIT until they are through with their Communist love affair before giving them big-boy toys.

[NRx]

I agree. First world countries appear to be handling this reasonably well. There are inevitably going to be isolated cases, but thus far they are in fact isolated. And the medical authorities are jumping on them quick and quarantining everyone they may have come into contact with. I’d say there is a 50/50 chance that we may be able to avoid a full blown outbreak here.

[hapnHal]

After reading this comment I may “NOT” want to purchase ANYTHING made in China!!!

How does the coronavirus spread? (theGuardian)

When an infected person coughs or sneezes, they release droplets of saliva or mucus. These droplets can fall on people in the vicinity and can be either directly inhaled or picked up on the hands then transferred when someone touches their face, causing infection. For flu, some hospital guidelines define exposure as being within six feet of an infected person who sneezes or coughs for 10 minutes or longer.

Viruses can also be spread through droplets landing on surfaces such as seats on buses or trains or desks in school. However, whether this is a main transmission route depends on how long viruses survive on surfaces – this can vary from hours to MONTHS.

[Oorang]

US Health Official: Coronavirus on Verge of Becoming ‘Global Pandemic’
February 16, 2020 Updated: February 16, 2020

A top official at the U.S. National Institutes of Health said the outbreak of the new coronavirus, called COVID-19, is on the verge of turning into a global pandemic unless efforts to curb its spread become more fruitful.

“Technically speaking, the [World Health Organization] wouldn’t be calling this a global pandemic. But it certainly is on the verge of that happening reasonably soon unless containment is more successful than it is right now,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CBS News on Sunday.

As of Sunday, about two-dozen countries have more than 500 cases, he said. “Several of them, are starting to get to the second and third transmission,” Fauci said, adding that a pandemic means that there are several countries with sustained transmission from “person to person to person.”

Excerpted

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us-health-official-coronavirus-on-verge-of-becoming-global-pandemic_3240123.html

[dynachrome]

Looks like the Spanish flu quarantine. If we get enough cases of any disease, the hospitals will be overwhelmed.

[riri]

Well, you have to keep in mind to have these numbers all of China is basically locked in their homes, we have suspended travel from China (mostly), etc.

We don’t know where we’d be without those measures.

[ncalburt]

I do not understand why these people were not taken to the US Okinawa Military base
and kept in quarantine?
Why a long airplane flight with all these potential infected people ?

[Persevero]

Not many people wearing masks yet in sf. We have a high Asian population and they seem to tend to use masks a lot. Only one at church for example.

[justa-hairyape]

The epidemic has become obvious in China. Maybe Japan today. Singapore any day now. It takes time to spread even in the jet age. Certainly not obvious here in the states yet. Btw, did you hear about that bad flu going around this flu season ? That’s how it started in China.

[Vermont Lt]

I am cautiously optimistic. My concern is that we don’t have a “starts date” in China with which to compare.

For example...we KNOW when the first bunch in the US showed up. We can start counting from that point. In order to know whether or not we “ are doing better” than China we would need to peg similar days (Day -0, day-1, etc.)

The other thing that helps us is we know what we are looking for.

Time will tell.

[Oorang]

Stripe closes Seattle office for two days as precaution after learning employee had contact with coronavirus patient

[ncalburt]

I want to know where are the other passenger from that Cambodia cruise liner ?
An American on board has the virus in Malaysia.
The boat said no one was infected .
They either lied or do not know ?
I think they lied .
Are those other passengers taking flights back here or wherever and there are Hundreds infecting the west now on planes ?
They need to stop those people and quarantine .
Cambodia did us no favors .

[unread]

“The most recent assessment is that the Wuhan Flu is much more contagious than ordinary flu viruses but is not quite as deadly.”

I thought it was the exact opposite.

Yeah, me too.. I got COPD really bad and I've been seriously worried about the whole deal... :(