Posted on 02/14/2020 9:45:49 AM PST by bolobaby
The SARS "epidemic" lasted from 1 November 2002 – 31 July 2003 (9 months). During that time there were...
8,096 total cases worldwide (5,327 in China)
774 total fatalities (349 in China)
...which gave us a fatality rate of 9.6% (6.6% in China).
Take a good look at those numbers. When you exclude China, the global fatality rate for SARS was 15.3%. This includes a 17.1% fatality rate in the socialized-medicine utopia otherwise known as Canada. Other notable rates - Hong Kong @ 17.0% and Singapore @ 13.9%. Both of the latter countries are well known for excellent healthcare in the region. Also notable: total cases in Japan were ZERO. (Make a note of this for later.)
It's clear that at 6.6%, China was not fully reporting fatalities from SARS.
The important thing to bear in mind is that fatality rate can only be determined from RESOLVED cases. That is, you are either recovered or dead. The stats for SARS are set in stone because we know how all those cases turned out.
Why do I bring this up?
Well, let's look at the current numbers for Coronavirus:
64,457 total cases worldwide (63,863 in China)
1,384 total fatalities (1,381 in China)
...BUT ONLY...
7,155 recovered (7,072 in China)
THEREFORE, for *resolved* cases, the current fatality rate *in China* is 1,381/(1,381 + 7,072) = 16.3%.
Let me take a moment to recognize that this number is likely to come down significantly as groups of patients come off longstanding quarantines. Just how far it comes down we don't know.
Let's also recognize that China is a bunch of lying communist pricks. They lied about their 6.6% SARS fatality rate, and are clearly lying here. So, even if the 16.3% number comes down, it will still not be an accurate representation of the true fatality rate in China. In the end, will their BOGUS number be higher or lower than the 6.6% SARS rate?
The rest of the world, with BETTER health care than mainland China reported a fatality rate from SARS that was 2.3x the mortality rate in China. So whatever number China winds up with, the rest of the world could very easily be 2.3x that.
Now - let's talk about basic reproduction rate, R0 (pronounced "r naught").
SARS lasted 9 months and infected only 8,096 people worldwide. The 64,457 cases for Coronavirus mentioned above starts from January 20th. In other words, not even one month ago. So, in about 10% of the time we've already got 8x times as many infected. I'm going to repeat that...
In 10% of the time, 8x more people have gotten Coronavirus compared to SARS.
If it was just a straight extrapolation across 9 months, that would mean we'd see over 600,000 cases worldwide. Maybe a little more, maybe a little less as it winds down.
Here's the problem with infectious diseases, though, as the infection rate goes up, it doesn't go up LINEARLY but EXPONENTIALLY.
What is R0?
This number is essentially the infection rate. An infection rate of 1.28 (about average for the "normal" flu) means that for every one person that gets sick, they are likely to get 1.28 people sick until something changes, such as the season. (In the flu's case, things like seasonal temperature change eventually help to kill off the virus.)
An R0 of 2 means that from patient zero to the 4th generation infected, you have 15 total infected.
An R0 of 3 means that from patient zero to the 4th generation infected, you have 40 total infected.
An R0 of 4 means that from patient zero to the 4th generation infected, you have 85 total infected.
Doubling the R0 from 2 to 4 means a *potential* to increase the infected 5.7x.
We readily use the flu vaccine in the United States. The flu has a low R0 of about 1.28 on average. Despite that, about 10% of Americans get the flu every year. The pandemic strain of the flu was estimated to have an R0 of 2-3.
So what is the R0 of Coronavirus? Well, because China is asshole, we don't yet know, but consider this: the R0 of SARS was somewhere between 2-5. That's pretty bad... but wait! Millions get the flu every year and only 8,096 got SARS. WTF? Well, this is because we were able to do a decent job containing and quarantining SARS. We're a little more lax with the flu even though it kills tens of thousands of Americans every year.
Right now, the best estimate for Coronavirus's R0 is 4.7–6.6 (source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf) That's a VERY big number. We can see the impact this number is having on the total number infected and how hard it has been to contain compared to SARS.
Remember that I mentioned Japan had no cases of SARS? Well they have 29 cases of Coronavirus already and we're just getting started.
You can see that China is having trouble with containment from the news and videos that have leaked out. With SARS, we saw some people walking around with masks on. THIS TIME China...
On top of that, China reports that more than 500 health care workers have tested positive. These are people who are supposed to be taking the strictest measures to avoid infection. They're the ones you see decked out in full protective gear.
The bottom line - China is having serious trouble containing the infection. Many, many more are being infected in a much shorter period than prior epidemics. The R0 is high enough to suggest that a LARGE percentage of the world's population will be exposed.
Now, you may be thinking: this is 'Murica! We're not some backwater country like China! We can handle an outbreak!
Well, yes and no, Freepers.
It's true we've got some of the greatest health care in the world. We are also uniquely capable of handling situations like this without the authoritarian measures a country like China needs to take.
But...
I want you to remember that the SARS fatality rate for the "civilized" world was 2.3x HIGHER than China's reported rate. So far, the reported rate in China isn't looking great.
The biggest danger to our country, however, comes from South America. If Coronavirus hits South America, and starts spreading like wildfire as in China, people will come RUNNING for our southern border hoping to both escape and get medical care. Even if we close the border, we know some will get through. They'll head for relatives in any number of cities throughout the country, bring the virus with them. Given the fact that the incubation period for this virus can be up to 2 weeks, they may not even be sick or know they have been exposed. Now we'll be fighting pockets of infection all over the place.
This thing has the potential to get out of hand fast. It's both infectious and deadly. Viral medications are harder to come by than antibiotics. You need to be ready to protect yourself from getting the infection in the first place! Be ready to shelter in place for weeks if needed.
I could go into the various ways to prepare, but this post is long enough. Track the progress of the virus here, but don't believe the numbers coming of China. They're bullshit and don't reflect how truly bad it is: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
I should add that we currently have about 930,000 hospital beds in the U.S. for a population of 327M.
Related:
California lab says it discovered Coronavirus vaccine in 3 hours
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3816512/posts
That’s always been the case. We can just take turns. :)
“They’re bullshit and don’t reflect how truly bad it is”
Very true!
YouTube pulled down several videos last week of the apocalyptic empty streets of Wuhan. All storefronts closed, and only two dudes riding bikes on the streets.
The body burning began a while back and you can see it on satellite maps.
Agree - although based on what I can see coming out of China - and hints from friends still working in ‘DC’, I’m guessing that current fatalities are in the 50-100k range.
That said, even though the numbers the last couple of days have spiked (due to a different diagnostic methodology) things seem to be calming down in Wuhan. We may dodge this bullet.
If it does break out world wide we are looking at a billion dead.
I’m expecting a shipment from China, ordered before this stuff hit the fan, but the first place it is going is in the microwave.
“I’m guessing that current fatalities are in the 50-100k range.”
Why are you “guessing”?
At this point it is a contest between randos on the internet and the CCP as to which group can be the most obnoxious with their crooked under-reporting and comical overestimating
This is not the fault of the people on the ground, some of whom are literally working themselves to death. To ask a nurse how many people she treated at the end of a 16-hour shift is going to get you the answer "everyone I could". Those are going to be raw numbers and carry with them their own error rates and that's just how it is. What is difficult to forgive is the stubborn insistence on laundering these numbers with an eye to political advantage that takes place at every level in a country where the political is everything. It is a tendency that is not absent from American politics as well. Prayers up for the docs and the nurses and curses for the system that is letting them and their patients down.
Let’s hope there would be a certified vaccine in 6 months. And let’s hope it would be before a billion fatalities. :)
You are not reading this correctly at all.
People who are still sick/infected are heading towards one of two outcomes - recovered or dead. These are *concluded* cases.
Look at is this way: 1,000 people get a new type of cancer at the same time. They all start chemotherapy or whatnot. While in treatment, they have yet to be cured or to die. When one of those two outcomes takes place, we can start determining the mortality rate. So, if 500 of them “conclude” their cases, with 250 dying and 250 recovering, we can see that half are dying off so far.
What’s going to happen to the other half? God only knows. It could be that the 250 that were cured were cured FAST and that the remaining 500 are all on their last legs. Or, it could be that the remaining 500 have one more treatment until being fully recovered. WE DON’T KNOW. We have NO IDEA what the disposition is of those cases in China is yet. Therefore, the ONLY data that makes sense to include in mortality rate is CONCLUDED CASES.
Also, the infection is *juuuuust* getting out of China now, so this comment...
“And yet for some reason this seems to never spark any curiosity seeing that the people outside of China are not dying anywhere near the same rate?”
...is also nonsensical.
And the problem is that we have no idea the total number of people that has it.
So why is there a “mortality rate” calculation being made when people will just as assuredly tell you that you have to multiply the number of people with it according to the CCP by x10, x100, or whatever?
If 10x more people have it, and the confirmed dead is the same, then doesn’t that nose-dive the mortality rate?
Any Chinese provided disease figures are so unreliable as to not form the basis for reasonable analysis. Unfortunately.
My humble attempt at making sense of it says that the disease course is 18 days to recovery, but 21 days to death. (On the average and in VERY broad terms.)
On 2/12, I predicted
2/13 21:30, 1425 dead, actual 1383, 2.8% low.
2/14 21:30, 1500 dead
2/15 21:30, 1990 dead
If I’m close (±15%) I’ll tell you how. So far, so good.
Although you should be able to figure out the method to my madness with that much info...
“Also, the infection is *juuuuust* getting out of China now”
No it isnt. It has been out for a while now.
How many people are dead outside of China?
According to the numbers in the article, not many at all. Is this virus just racist against Chinese people or does its ability to kill like it does there just not the same once it infects people outside of that country? We had video of people dead on the street, bleeding out of their heads or convulsing on cots. Where is this in the people that got infected that are out of the nation? Are they all just lucky?
“...is also nonsensical.”
Because conditions in communist China are absolutely great and could not possibly have a bearing on why so many people there die from it so eaisly?
Ok....sure.
“Our goal is to start phase one human testing in the U.S. early this summer.”
Doesn’t do much good now. Not sure it will be tested sufficiently by next Fall, if they expect this virus to re-emerge then.
Agenda 21's goal is about 7.5 billion dead.
You are right. There could be a large percentage who get infected that do not present.
That knocks the figure way down. But based on the current estimated R0 and the number of people dead in China (the real number) and the time that has elapsed - that’s maybe 20%?
Extremely rough guesses here. But we still seem to be looking at a very high fatality rate.
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