Posted on 02/06/2020 6:00:40 AM PST by dangus
This is not how epidemics are supposed to spread. For a week in late January, more than half of newly reported Coronavirus infections were outside of Hubei (Wuhan's state). Now, fewer than one in five new cases are from Outside Hubei.
China took extremely drastic and apparently amazingly successful efforts to contain Coronavirus. So why do Chinese leaders act in apology and shame, like those dogs in YouTube videos? You can almost hear the scoldy housewife berating, "Did you do this Xi Jinping?" as his tail withers behind his legs, he circles around his doggy bed, and lifts his lip in a smile to show his teeth.
Several days ago, I noted on Free Republic that the rate of the spread of new infections was in decline; it was no longer exponential. The percentage growth in new cases had been between 30 and 69 per day, and it had dropped into a the low 20s. Yesterday, there were FEWER over cases than the day before, but I wouldn't read too much into a single day's data.
More interestingly is the spread outside Hubei: There were fewer new cases outside Hubei than there were a week ago. And then there's this: while in Hubei, the death rate is staggeringly high (over 3%), outside Hubei, only 14 people have died of it. (About 15,000 people have died of the flu this year in the U.S. alone.)
How could this be? This was hailed as the most contagious disease ever reported? And it emerged at the crossroads of the most populous empire ever, at the heat of a region containing most of the world's population, at the peak of the travel season. And yet, outside Hubei, there have been very few human-to-human transmissions at all. Remember that world-reknowned researcher who claimed he caught it in his eye?
So to recap the clues:
The Chinese have taken quick, and drastic measures to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus.
The spread of Coronavirus has impossibly slowed outside of Hubei, with a week of data confirming the trend.
Despite these efforts, the Chinese have been acting as if their poor response is an existential threat to their control.
The virus, outside of Hubei, seems not so insanely contagious or deadly as inside Hubei.
The solution: The Chinese have been open about Coronavirus, since it began to spread out from Hubei. But it was far worse within Hubei than they were willing to admit, so they took absolutely drastic measures to bury their mistakes. They had failed to recognize that Coronavirus wasn't a mere flu until thousands were sick. Within Hubei, they admitted only the worst cases were Coronavirus, allowing the resultant misleading statistics to make the virus look so deadly, and so easily spread.
So the good news: We're not all going to die of Coronavirus.
The bad news: China just learned it could respond to a biological attack in a way that America never could.
The bad news: China just learned it could respond to a biological attack in a way that America never could.>
The Chinese could kill most of the worlds human population with bio-warfare, as long as they were willing to sacrifice 1/5th of their own population.
That sacrifice wouldn’t even make Xi blink if it meant world dominance by China.
The bad news: China just learned it could respond to a biological attack in a way that America never could.>>>>>>
The Chinese could kill most of the world’s human population with bio-warfare, as long as they were willing to sacrifice 1/5th of their own population.
That sacrifice wouldn’t even make Xi blink if it meant world dominance by China.
Thanks for finding the dark cloud above the silver lining.
Sometimes FR is the most pessimistic place on Earth.
Thanks for the sanity post.
It was greatly needed.
I think it’s too early to jump conclusions.
I would consider your conclusions if not for the posting from the SCMP and an outbreak in HK without animal vectors.
I’m starting to think more highly of the as yet unproven conspiracy theory that this originated in a Chinese lab and then somehow leaked out. If that’s true, this is like a bio-Chernobyl.
Nice tag line. I bet Parscale does it.
“How could this be? This was hailed as the most contagious disease ever reported?”
Not sure where you’re getting this, first that I’ve heard. Might you have a source?
What I’ve seen is that the virus seems to occupy a sweet spot between human transmissibity (which has now been confirmed in multiple countries, including the US) and severity, where diseases such SARS and Ebola are very difficult to transmit between humans but very severe, and the common cold being very easy to transmit, but not severe to most people.
But, you’re more than welcome to declare this threat over for the rest of the world...and we’re more than welcome to not yet join you in your premature optimism.
(and when you run to Costco in 3 weeks, don’t blame us when can’t find any decent food)
Who is Parscale?
I respectfully have some different views. None of this stuff should be read in a dramatic or excited voice.
The problem with your position is that you missed a big thing in Hubei: they just opened 1,000 new beds. This means that the numbers will level off as those bed suck up a bunch of slack in the system. You need to watch the numbers to see if the trajectory resumes.
Currently on a logarithmic scale the plane of increases across all provinces appears to be faint consistent.
I am not blowing the horn to get every excited, but I think you might be a little premature.
And finally, the issue is not the fatalities. There are two things to be concerned about:
—a widespread outbreak would overwhelm any local health system, putting “regular” peopl at risk.
—The supply chain is already being disrupted. You can see it in automotive and medical supplies industries already. This could trim industrial output.
Finally, the status of the virus outside of China is about 6 weeks behind Wuhan.
No need to be alarmed. People should be taking standard flu precautions. But people should be careful not to dismiss how dangerous this could be. Reasonable preparations should be considered.
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.
It’s withering away? not likely
sigh...
they can only test so many people a day, there is a limit
if that limit is 3000 and they have 6000 cases the rate go up 50%
if that limit is 3000 and they have 30,000 cases that number is 10%
This guy is wrong, it’s not getting better
Do you really believe the numbers from China?
Why did China just announce this morning they are building even more hospitals?
Then there is this:
Yes, that’s the scary news.
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