[DoodleBob]

Thank you. Exactly...the death rate of X is always the dot product of the probability of contracting X (PC) and the percentage of people dying of X given that they've contracted X (Called the case fatality rate or CFR). Thus, taking AIDS, CFR is high (80-90% untreated) but PC is extremely low, because it's not airborne and you can't get it via handshakes etc.

So far, and assuming published data is accurate (!), the contravirus has relatively high CFR of 3% (in line with smallpox but way lower than influenza's 0.1%) but the PC is very low for the tens of millions of quarantined folks. Thus, it's like AIDS.

Now, it is early days and the Chinese govt is as trustworthy as the Clintons. Further, with SARS people assumed a super high PC and CFR. It never came.

More to come.

[Hugh the Scot]

“So far, and assuming published data is accurate (!), the contravirus has relatively high CFR of 3% (in line with smallpox but way lower than influenza’s 0.1%) but the PC is very low for the tens of millions of quarantined folks. Thus, it’s like AIDS.”

This statement is factually inaccurate and misleading.

Your definition of CFR is accurate. The infected and not yet dead or recovered are a null set. You’re using post-event math on dynamic data.

[Mariner]

Why do you keep saying the Probability of Contracting (PC) is low when WHO says its R0 is at least 2.6?

You contended all night the likelihood of contracting it was very law, and low.

Just wondering how you framed the data for that assessment?

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-2019-nCoV-transmissibility.pdf

[grey_whiskers]

Why in the hell are you using a dot product for a mathematical construct only one unit long?