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Nope. The issue isn't the conditional death rate (or, technically, the case fatality ratio/CFR) of 3% or 0.5%. The issue is the likelihood of infection AND CFR. The HK pandemic was impactful because lots of people got it. So far, this thing in China isn't that contagious. Thus, a 3% CFR isn't scary if it's unlikely you'll catch it. It's like AIDS.

I don't trust their government, or the data that much but I'll analyze it because it's what we've got. I will also weigh humanity's predeliction to overhype and freak out when it comes to pandemics and scale back the current hysteria accordingly. Throw it all into the blender, and I get a good smoothie vs pickled herring.

Thanks for the challenge.

"So far, this thing in China isn't that contagious."

Where are you getting your information on the transmission rates? Please tell me.

We all hope you are right, but maybe you just like to argue, or you are drunk or something. Who knows?

Here is one source I posted earlier:

"HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak"

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220919589623803905

Public health scientist👨🏻‍🔬/ Epidemiologist / Health Economist / Science advocacy / ex-Harvard faculty (still Harvard SPH scientist)

07:32, 26-Jan-2020

10 new cases of novel coronavirus confirmed in Beijing

Ten new cases of novel coronavirus were confirmed in Beijing on Saturday, according to local health authorities. This brings the number of confirmed cases to 51 in the Chinese capital.

Beijing's Municipal Health Commission said in a statement on Sunday that three of the patients are medical staff, two of which had a travel history to Wuhan. The third contracted the disease after sitting with one of the infected doctors during a meeting. (Cover: AP Photo)

https://www.cgtn.com/special/Battling-the-novel-coronavirus-What-we-know-so-far-.html

From that same source,

09:50, 26-Jan-2020

Tianjin has announced that it will suspend all inter-provincial shuttle buses starting January 27 amid the novel coronavirus outbreak, local authorities said.

08:23, 26-Jan-2020

40 cases of novel coronavirus confirmed in Shanghai

As of Saturday midnight, seven new cases of novel coronavirus were confirmed in Shanghai, which brings the number of confirmed cases to 40, according to local health commission.

The commission said in a statement that one male patient aged 88 died, and the other one is in critical condition.

One person discharged from the hospital, the statement added.

1:27, 26-Jan-2020

Beijing announces 20 designated hospitals to treat coronavirus patients

Beijing Municipal Health Commission on Sunday announced 20 designated hospitals to treat coronavirus patients

These 20 hospitals are in charge of the medical treatment for patients infected in the outbreak of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus.

Beijing Ditan Hospital and Beijing Youan Hospital, which were the major hospitals treating SARS patients in 2003, are among the 20 hospitals.

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if this is so trivial, why is Beijing designating 20 hospitals to deal with this?

How far are they from Wuhan?