[ifinnegan]

Do you think there will be 100 million infected by the end of February?

[Black Agnes]

I didn’t post that.

I don’t think anyone can know how many will be infected by the end of February.

This virus is known to mutate once it hits a new host. It’s had thousands of tries so far in this outbreak to do so. Let’s hope it’s becoming weaker...

[Raebie]

Considering the population and conditions in China, I wouldn’t rule it out.

[grey_whiskers]

R0 affects *number* of child infections but not how long incubation and spawning of "grand"child and later infections take.

What is the average transmission interval in hours or days?

Should be easy enough to curve fit, unless you don't want to rely on the extrapolation of the early data (exponential curves go a little batsh*t crazy themselves when you try to extrapolate from them too early on...)

[BusterDog]

"Do you think there will be 100 million infected by the end of February?"

Could be 1 million by end of February.

"we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649)"

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220920289711837184