Posted on 01/24/2020 2:28:22 PM PST by janetjanet998
Glad I don’t have a kid in college now.
College campuses are probably going to see cases in the coming weeks.
Scientist who simulated the global impact of a coronavirus outbreak says ‘the cat’s already out of the bag’ and calls China’s efforts to contain the disease ‘unlikely to be effective’
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3810949/posts
My wife (MD) commented on this a few days ago. She said the horse escaped, the barn burned down, and fire department turned around for home.
A Twitter thread by Dr Eric Ding (this guy starts off a bit hysterical).
(I have no idea who this guy is, or how legitimate his studies are.....just posting for info...)
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
Public health scientist/ Epidemiologist / Health Economist / Science advocacy / Taught for 15 years at Harvard / NYT-featured pharma whistleblower
Jan. 25, 2020 3 min read
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak
2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing...
3/ ... We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan....
4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that..
5/ travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are...
6/ ...critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that...
7/ a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!! #wuhanvirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #ChinaCoronaVirus ...
8/ ... SUMMARY: so what does this mean for the world??? We are now faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen. An R0=3.8 means that it exceeds SARS’s modest 0.49 viral attack rate by 7.75x — almost 8 fold! A virus that spreads 8 faster than SARS...
9/ ...cannot be stopped by containment alone. A 99% quarantine lockdown containment of Wuhan will not even reduce the epidemic’s spread by even 1/3rd in the next 2 weeks. Thus, I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with...
10\ ... possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern world with faster planes/trains.. than 1918. @WHO and @CDCgov needs to declare public health emergency ASAP!
11/ REFERENCE for the R0 attack rate (reproductive coefficient) of 3.8 and the 99% containment models come from this paper: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
12/ What is the typical R0 attack rate for the seasonal flu in most years? It’s around an R0=1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic? R0=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu? 1.80. This new #WuhanCoronavirus reproductive value again? R0=3.8. (Flu reference: bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…)
13/ ...and it gets even worse, the Lancet now reports that the coronavirus is contagious even when *no symptoms*: specifically: “crucial to isolate patients... quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible”! scmp.com/news/china/soc…
14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks
You can follow @DrEricDing.
~~~~~
Again...posting for reference.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/how-china-hiding-true-number-coronavirus-deaths
Yes, it’s that site. But there are exerpts from places like WSJ.
Note the bit about coughing up blood in one of the cases.
Scary...where are these students staying????
“My wife (MD) commented on this a few days ago. She said the horse escaped, the barn burned down, and fire department turned around for home.”
Almost verbatim what I said to my husband last night. I’m retired from nursing, graduated from a class of only 25 that made it through the #1 rated school for 10 years running, had several WWII era instructors and 2 that were babies / children during the Spanish flu and lost family members. I got a goooood education.
Wow...that bad, huh?
What’s her/your plan, going forward?
they arent going to have enough medical equipment to deal with this
how many ventilators would be required
i think people are just going to drop dead from lack of adequate care
From your link....
....In another case, a 72-year-old former doctor was in the hospital for three days before he died on Tuesday, his nephew said. The doctors told the family he had caught viral pneumonia, he said. The niece said her uncle, the fitness trainer, first noticed symptoms of what he thought was a common cold in early January, which he believed he had caught at a banquet. He didn’t pay much attention initially, but a few days later, he decided to go to the hospital after seeing blood when he coughed. His niece said he had never been to the food market believed to be the epicenter of the virus.
“The doctor told us repeatedly that he caught the viral pneumonia that no medicine could treat,” she said. A patient’s immune system is the only defense, she said the family was told. “But after he died, the death certificate only said ‘severe pneumonia,’” she said, adding that she had expected the record to reflect the newly detected coronavirus.
The uncle was transferred to the infectious diseases unit on Wednesday, the niece said. Hours later, the family was informed that his condition was critical. Two days after her uncle died, China’s health ministry released the profiles of 39 deaths in Hubei due to the new virus, with two deaths listed in other provinces. She couldn’t find her uncle on the list.
As hundreds if not thousands of Wuhan residents die due to “severe pneumonia” instead of coronavirus, one can’t help but wonder if once the true cause of death is reported, instead of a 4% mortality rate as calculated by Dr. Jonathan Read, the Coronavirus epidemic won’t be in double digits - SARS was 11% - making this one of the most deadly epidemics in history......
Baylor out playing basketball today. How much of this will be spread from students traveling for sports.
I’d like to see stories/details about the 38 (??) who’ve survived.
What was their secret/protocal to overcome?
https://www.cnet.com/news/as-star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-nears-pretend-youre-aboard-an-x-wing/
I just found they also have a Star Wars x-wing fighter. Weird.
Interesting.
I think the full on quarantine is partially if not mainly an exercise to see how well the populace can be contained.
It certainly doesn’t hurt quelling a potential epidemic but it also provides them with real life data on what to expect if there’s large scale social unrest against the regime and they want to institute a travel ban.
Ontario govt announcement out of Toronto.
Male, in his 50’s tests positive for coronavirus, at Sunnybrook Hospital, in TO.
He had travelled to the impacted area in China.
No kidding. It has a two week incubation period. It had two weeks to go anywhere. Longer, really, since China has been covering up since about Jan 3.
“Do you understand extrapolation. Yes or no?”
Why do you return to saying idiotic things.
Twitter has info that some of the BL4 clad PLA troops were searching for the survivors for blood samples...
I know, twitter...but still.
I guess No is the answer then.
First report of case in Russia:
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/823847-russia-suspected-coronavirus-cases-–-reports
Not sure of the source’s cred, but not obviously iffy.
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