Posted on 09/01/2019 2:07:56 AM PDT by CptnObvious
What Happened to ALL the Dorian Computer Models Hitting Florida?
Was it me, or were ALL the computer models hitting Florida for several days. And I don't remember even one predicting it going to the east of Florida and up beside the US East Coast.
Now, all but one predict it NOT hitting Florida, the one predicting a loop into Florida and back then zipping up the coast with all the other models.
My question is, What Happened to change all the Computer Models, in one day so drastically. How did all the computer models get changed like this so fast?
Were we getting Played?
The same models that predict global warming.
No, they're not. Not even close.
Joe Bastardi, of Weatherbell.com, said on Monday or Tuesday that he thought that the hurricane would probably curve and track up the coast and the eye would not hit the Florida coast, but that it would receive very heavy winds and rain. He also mentioned that, based upon historic hurricane tracks, he saw a slight, but possible chance of it crossing Florida and renew strength in the Gulf of Mexico.
These models suck past 24 hours.
Not one model got Dorian passing east of Puerto Rico. Not one.
but possible chance of it crossing Florida and renew strength in the Gulf of Mexico....The predictions are just that, predictions and they can change quickly.
That is why we in Texas are watching this monster. I remember Hurricane Andrew. Smacked South Florida pretty hard, got into the Gulf, then his South Louisiana.
Also, Harvey hit Texas, got back into the Gulf, then came back for another run up the coast.
Didn’t you hear what happened on MSNBC?
POTUS Trump found The Bush Weather Machine in the basement of the White House. When he learned that the Hurricane might hit and damage his Country Club, he decided to use it.
Florida is still not safe, however. The forecast puts the eye of Dorian just off the coast and a shift of a few miles west could be catastrophic.
Even with the eye off the coast Florida will get hit with a strong storm surge, hurricane force winds and torrential rains.
Those models can’t get the next 6 hours correct. All the millions of dollars and college academics working on those models and they can’t predict so much as 6 hours from now.
“Let me know when you can model weather on the Earth days out perfectly.”
Actually, we pilots winters storms three weeks out. So far, pretty accurate. In fact, many pilots I know put work from home days on their calendars three weeks out to avoid coming into work on snow days.
Joe Bastardi has Dorian coming in just West of Hatteras.
I had family members in the Tampa Bay area that went to three and four gas stations before finding gas - - and we were on the fringe of where the storm ‘might’ go...
Yes, a wise bit of caution on your part. That “only 2% chance” of happening can always turn into a 100% ass biter. I’m hoping that it stays off shore and folks “only” have to deal with the outer wind and rain from it.
She says some warning, any warning, is better than what used to happen....no warning at all.
When she was a kid, she said these things used to show up and slam them without any warning.
So people nowadays should count their blessings that they've been give a heads up, albeit maybe not as accurate or precise as some people would want, but a warning nonetheless.
The alternative, not knowing it's coming at all, is worse.
I think that Weatherbell.com has had better and more accurate hurricane seasonal forecasting. Joe Bastardi use to put up a daily weather blurb on the site, but it has been cut back to a weekly posting every Saturday. Joe’s forecast last week was for the EYE of this hurricane to stay off shore and not make landfall in Florida or the southeast coast; but, he said that the the coast would get battered by the wind and rain of the outlying bands of it.
It depends on what the models are about. I’m old enough to remember when the government was experimenting with seeding clouds with iodine crystals to try to precipitate rain.They quit. The reason they quit was that someone ran a weather prediction computer model - one which he knew to be too crude to actually be useful - and printed out the results over a certain duration. He thought better of terminating the computer run as soon as he had, so he took the printed results from partway thru the run, and fed them back into the computer to repeat the end of the run and extend out further.
So the computer put out some result which he expected to match his previous run - not precisely because the printed results he had were not printed out to the full precision of the internal values, but close. Or so he thought. What happened instead was that the first results from the new run were similar to the first run, but very quickly the results diverged utterly. In short order there was no similarity at all. He was shocked at first, but when he analyzed the equations from the new perspective, he was able to recognize that he had a “small difference of large numbers” problem embedded in them.
Take the example of profit and loss. Profit is revenue minus expenses. Unless you have an extremely profitable (or unprofitable) business, revenue is fairly close - within, say, 10% - of expenses. Fine. But suppose you try to estimate next year’s revenue and expenses to predict next year’s profit. And suppose your estimate of each is only good to within 5%. We’re talking about the future . . .
Under those conditions, what is the % tolerance on your estimate of profit? There isn’t any bound on the possible percentage error! Because the difference between revenue and expenses might be very close zero - and if it is, then what ever your estimated profit was is all error. And that error, compared to the actual result of near zero, is off of the mark by an unlimited percentage.
So the researcher wrote up his finding, and predicted that the weather could never be accurately forecast for long periods of time, because the input data would never be good enough, and extensive enough, to support that possibility. He had a hard time, back in the early 1950s, getting his result published, and then in a relatively obscure foreign journal. That “little gem of a paper” is now looked on as the beginning of Chaos theory.
They stopped experimenting with controlling the weather when they realized that they could never predict the weather - and if they couldn’t do that, they could never know the effect of their intervention.
But computer models showing that we will all DIE due to Global Warming in 30 years MUST be right.
So, the DEA should review any, and all, hurricane path predictions before they are released to the press and assign an additional, appropriate attribute to each specific prediction model...
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