Invest 92L has strong chance of tropical development (5 days 80%) [name Barry]

NHC/NOAA ^ | 9-July-2019

[topher]

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development
over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on
Wednesday, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to
produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system
could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this
weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast, and interests along
the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[topher]

Today, local weather forecaster in South Louisiana said one model has 20+ inches of rain for Baton Rouge and Morgan City.

This was the European Model.

It appear to have a strong chance to become Tropical Depression Barry, Tropical Storm Barry or a Cat 1 Hurricane.

Three possible paths (of many):

1.Go ashore near New Orleans
2.Go ashore between Lafayette and Lake Charles, Louisiana
3.Go ashore in the Houston area (among other possibilities.

It has time to strengthen. It is not supposed to go ashore until Saturday/Sunday...

[topher]

[BamaBelle]

We just got a very brief shower off the system and thank goodness for it. We’ve had 110 degree heat index all afternoon. Much cooler now. Ahhhh...July/August in the deep south...sigh

[OrangeHoof]

Yesterday, I was hearing it was coming to Texas and now they aren’t sure? If it followed most tropical systems, it would cut across North Florida and come out to the Atlantic. Somehow, they forecast this one will drift due West which is highly unusual unless there is a very strong high pressure system to the East and low pressure system due West, influencing the storm’s track.

[MissEdie]

If it develops it will be named after my hubby :0)

[OrangeHoof]

Do you think we will ever have a Hurricane Barack?

[sparklite2]

Hurricane Barry was the fourth tropical depression, second hurricane and named storm of the inactive 1983 Atlantic hurricane season.

[eartick]

Barry...quick, draw a red line and it will not cross it.

[blam]

Eyes wised open here in Mobile.
(I'm suppose to go to Kentucky next week for a family reunion.)

[janetjanet998]

the MS river is very high due to heavy rain the past 12 months , 16 feet At New Orleans,

the levees protect it to 20 feet

most of the time when tropical systems hit the river is only 4-8 feet

any surge will go up the MS river.... extreme example: Katrina raised it form 4 feet to 17 feet
but since the river s so high the downward momentum is also higher then a lower river level and the same surge at 3 feet level won’t be as high as 16 feet..

This is being discussed at various places and there appears o be no otvery little model data for such a scenario

[janetjanet998]

update: NWS New Orleans ✔ @NWSNewOrleans The Miss. River forecast at New Orleans Carrollton gage was updated this afternoon to a crest of 19ft on Fri. nto Sat. to account for potential storm surge impacts on lower Miss. River. The forecast was closely coordinated with Corps of Engineers & the NHC Storm Surge Unit. 1/2

[deport]

Names used for Atlantic Tropical Storms
2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Arlene	Alberto	Andrea	Arthur	Ana	Alex
Bret	Beryl	Barry	Bertha	Bill	Bonnie
Cindy	Chris	Chantal	Cristobal	Claudette	Colin
Don	Debby	Dorian	Dolly	Danny	Danielle
Emily	Ernesto	Erin	Edouard	Elsa	Earl
Franklin	Florence	Fernand	Fay	Fred	Fiona
Gert	Gordon	Gabrielle	Gonzalo	Grace	Gaston
Harvey	Helene	Humberto	Hanna	Henri	Hermine
Irma	Isaac	Imelda	Isaias	Ida	Ian
Jose	Joyce	Jerry	Josephine	Julian	Julia
Katia	Kirk	Karen	Kyle	Kate	Karl
Lee	Leslie	Lorenzo	Laura	Larry	Lisa
Maria	Michael	Melissa	Marco	Mindy	Martin
Nate	Nadine	Nestor	Nana	Nicholas	Nicole
Ophelia	Oscar	Olga	Omar	Odette	Owen
Philippe	Patty	Pablo	Paulette	Peter	Paula
Rina	Rafael	Rebekah	Rene	Rose	Richard
Sean	Sara	Sebastien	Sally	Sam	Shary
Tammy	Tony	Tanya	Teddy	Teresa	Tobias
Vince	Valerie	Van	Vicky	Victor	Virginie
Whitney	William	Wendy	Wilfred	Wanda	Walter

[topher]

Now at 90% of Tropical Depression/Storm formation in next 48 hours or next 5 days...

Probably not good news...

Probably will be a significant rain maker...

[NautiNurse]

Watching carefully...lots of rain along the FL Gulf Coast for the past two days.

NOLA already has tornados spawning.

[NautiNurse]

TD 2

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City

[MissEdie]

We’ve already had one- it lasted for 8 years and the damage is going to take decades to fix.

[T-Bone Texan]

I want it to hit Houston so I can take a day off and play with my kids, maybe bake some cookies, and definitely pump out the cistern.