Posted on 07/09/2019 2:01:32 PM PDT by topher
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad low pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development
over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on
Wednesday, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to
produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system
could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this
weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast, and interests along
the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
This was the European Model.
It appear to have a strong chance to become Tropical Depression Barry, Tropical Storm Barry or a Cat 1 Hurricane.
Three possible paths (of many):
1.Go ashore near New Orleans
2.Go ashore between Lafayette and Lake Charles, Louisiana
3.Go ashore in the Houston area (among other possibilities.
It has time to strengthen. It is not supposed to go ashore until Saturday/Sunday...
We just got a very brief shower off the system and thank goodness for it. We’ve had 110 degree heat index all afternoon. Much cooler now. Ahhhh...July/August in the deep south...sigh
Yesterday, I was hearing it was coming to Texas and now they aren’t sure? If it followed most tropical systems, it would cut across North Florida and come out to the Atlantic. Somehow, they forecast this one will drift due West which is highly unusual unless there is a very strong high pressure system to the East and low pressure system due West, influencing the storm’s track.
If it develops it will be named after my hubby :0)
Do you think we will ever have a Hurricane Barack?
Hurricane Barry was the fourth tropical depression, second hurricane and named storm of the inactive 1983 Atlantic hurricane season.
Barry...quick, draw a red line and it will not cross it.
the MS river is very high due to heavy rain the past 12 months , 16 feet At New Orleans,
the levees protect it to 20 feet
most of the time when tropical systems hit the river is only 4-8 feet
any surge will go up the MS river.... extreme example: Katrina raised it form 4 feet to 17 feet
but since the river s so high the downward momentum is also higher then a lower river level and the same surge at 3 feet level won’t be as high as 16 feet..
This is being discussed at various places and there appears o be no otvery little model data for such a scenario
Names used for Atlantic Tropical Storms | |||||
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
Arlene | Alberto | Andrea | Arthur | Ana | Alex |
Bret | Beryl | Barry | Bertha | Bill | Bonnie |
Cindy | Chris | Chantal | Cristobal | Claudette | Colin |
Don | Debby | Dorian | Dolly | Danny | Danielle |
Emily | Ernesto | Erin | Edouard | Elsa | Earl |
Franklin | Florence | Fernand | Fay | Fred | Fiona |
Gert | Gordon | Gabrielle | Gonzalo | Grace | Gaston |
Harvey | Helene | Humberto | Hanna | Henri | Hermine |
Irma | Isaac | Imelda | Isaias | Ida | Ian |
Jose | Joyce | Jerry | Josephine | Julian | Julia |
Katia | Kirk | Karen | Kyle | Kate | Karl |
Lee | Leslie | Lorenzo | Laura | Larry | Lisa |
Maria | Michael | Melissa | Marco | Mindy | Martin |
Nate | Nadine | Nestor | Nana | Nicholas | Nicole |
Ophelia | Oscar | Olga | Omar | Odette | Owen |
Philippe | Patty | Pablo | Paulette | Peter | Paula |
Rina | Rafael | Rebekah | Rene | Rose | Richard |
Sean | Sara | Sebastien | Sally | Sam | Shary |
Tammy | Tony | Tanya | Teddy | Teresa | Tobias |
Vince | Valerie | Van | Vicky | Victor | Virginie |
Whitney | William | Wendy | Wilfred | Wanda | Walter |
Probably not good news...
Probably will be a significant rain maker...
NOLA already has tornados spawning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City
We’ve already had one- it lasted for 8 years and the damage is going to take decades to fix.
I want it to hit Houston so I can take a day off and play with my kids, maybe bake some cookies, and definitely pump out the cistern.
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