Posted on 11/07/2018 1:13:14 PM PST by MrChips
As most of you know, Florida yesterday passed a State Constitutional Amendment that will allow up to 1.5 million felons to vote. Only murderers and sex offenders are excluded. And there is indeed a lot of variation in the severity of the crime. Some felons are hardened criminals, while others are just guilty of possessing a little cannabis. Still, as most of you also know, Republicans cannot (?) win the White House without Florida. Am I exaggerating to fear that we will never win a presidential election again?
Now, after doing a little research this morning, I learned that many states now allow felons to vote, although often on more restrictive terms than in Florida’s sweepingly inclusive Amendment. I also learned that not all felons necessarily vote Democrat. Nevertheless, some 7 out of 10 do vote Democrat, at least nationally.
And so, if just half (750,000) of Florida’s newly re-enfranchised felons vote, then 70% of those (525,000) might vote Democrat. Nevertheless, it breaks partially along racial lines, and Florida has a higher percentage of non-Blacks, with White felons tending to vote Republican, and Florida’s White and Hispanic felons combined are about 57% (427,500) of the total, with Blacks at 43%, (322,500). It is also true that close to 14% of Blacks voted Republican yesterday, remarkably so against a black candidate (Gillum), and that would lower the Democrat felon vote by approximately 45,000. But, let’s also assume that at least 50,000 Whites and Hispanics also could vote Democrat. That raises the bar.
So, on crunching numbers, one finds that if half of the felons vote, some 325,000 would likely go to the Democrat. Which means just as many would vote the other way. That is a best case scenario. Obviously, I am trying to reassure myself that this Amendment is not the end of the world. Still, even if my numbers are way off, it still seems true that the Democrat felon vote might well be no more than 100,000 votes greater than the Republican felon vote when all is said and done. Your thoughts? Are my numbers too optimistic?
Can we overcome 100,000? Both governor and senate races in Florida, yesterday, saw very narrow victories by Desantis and Scott. But, considering the fact that Desantis was a poor campaigner and Scott had to overcome a Florida legend for whom every elderly person in the state had voted several times, the narrowness of their victories is not surprising. And so, yes, we can overcome 100,000 . . . I hope and pray.
Do you know what a “trend” is in politics? Florida has trended right since 2012 in Statewide elections.
That’s a demonstrable fact. It trended 0.30% more GOP in 2016 from 2012.
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What about SINCE 2016?
Do you happen to have any links to answer that, and to support your 2012 - 2016 statement? Asking for a friend, who is gathering up-to-date trend data.
TIA.
Well, I certainly see it.
I live in TX and am witnessing it, first hand.
Prayers up for AZ, TX and FL.
We need an immediate intervention.
I lived in austin for 25 years, breaks my heart to see what happened there.
Here is the data map for 2016.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2016&def=tnd&datatype=national&f=1&off=0&elect=0
Click on the TREND tab in the database.
Florida trended .30% GOP.
We don’t have a trend for 2018 yet, because we don’t yet have a final vote count.
FYI, USElectionatlas uses BLUE for GOP and RED for Democrats. Don’t get confused.
Democrats don't even need to pretend to be moderate anymore.
Thanks for the link...and, for the FYI blue vs red :-)
It will be interesting to see the 2018 trend(s).
Looks like they’re (Dims) are going for counties outside of Texas metro areas. I wonder if that’s their plan, across all of the red states.
Dems will vote for them.
You are very right. But bad cases make bad law. Attempted homicide conviction still carries a rather stiff sentence. But if some DA offered a plea for a lesser charge resulting in an earlier release that would indeed be an abortion of justice. So perhaps the focus should be on why violent offenders are released early and how to prevent that.
Felons come with their own alibi.
If they’re found dead somewhere, well, the suspects are criminals they’ve worked with, or associations of those they’ve harmed.
Just sayin’...
It probably won’t help, but I wonder how many felons will actually bother to vote.
Because someone pays them to do it? Wait - that would be against the law, and a felon would never do that . . .
I stand corrected.
You are right.
What I was attempting to articulate is that, left to their own devices, most of them tend to return to prison in short time.
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