Posted on 11/07/2018 1:13:14 PM PST by MrChips
As most of you know, Florida yesterday passed a State Constitutional Amendment that will allow up to 1.5 million felons to vote. Only murderers and sex offenders are excluded. And there is indeed a lot of variation in the severity of the crime. Some felons are hardened criminals, while others are just guilty of possessing a little cannabis. Still, as most of you also know, Republicans cannot (?) win the White House without Florida. Am I exaggerating to fear that we will never win a presidential election again?
Now, after doing a little research this morning, I learned that many states now allow felons to vote, although often on more restrictive terms than in Florida’s sweepingly inclusive Amendment. I also learned that not all felons necessarily vote Democrat. Nevertheless, some 7 out of 10 do vote Democrat, at least nationally.
And so, if just half (750,000) of Florida’s newly re-enfranchised felons vote, then 70% of those (525,000) might vote Democrat. Nevertheless, it breaks partially along racial lines, and Florida has a higher percentage of non-Blacks, with White felons tending to vote Republican, and Florida’s White and Hispanic felons combined are about 57% (427,500) of the total, with Blacks at 43%, (322,500). It is also true that close to 14% of Blacks voted Republican yesterday, remarkably so against a black candidate (Gillum), and that would lower the Democrat felon vote by approximately 45,000. But, let’s also assume that at least 50,000 Whites and Hispanics also could vote Democrat. That raises the bar.
So, on crunching numbers, one finds that if half of the felons vote, some 325,000 would likely go to the Democrat. Which means just as many would vote the other way. That is a best case scenario. Obviously, I am trying to reassure myself that this Amendment is not the end of the world. Still, even if my numbers are way off, it still seems true that the Democrat felon vote might well be no more than 100,000 votes greater than the Republican felon vote when all is said and done. Your thoughts? Are my numbers too optimistic?
Can we overcome 100,000? Both governor and senate races in Florida, yesterday, saw very narrow victories by Desantis and Scott. But, considering the fact that Desantis was a poor campaigner and Scott had to overcome a Florida legend for whom every elderly person in the state had voted several times, the narrowness of their victories is not surprising. And so, yes, we can overcome 100,000 . . . I hope and pray.
Instead of writing them off, Maybe GOP should sponsor some job placement outreach programs for ex cons
I have now known several felons. I don’t think any of them would have taken the time to vote. They are too concerned with other issues; getting high, getting thrown out of their rental, getting their car repossessed, making bail for their wife/husband. The list goes on. They are not the type to register unless it is done automatically.
I am sure that some quantity of them go on to lead productive lives. I only know one in that category now and it’s because he has two teenagers. (He still has a serious impulse control issue, but he is more adult about it than he was when he saw an opportunity and “took” it.)
And the Dems with their hungry clipboards and registration cards know where they live.
huge mistake. felony recidivism in florida is 25% over three years, and that’s just the boogers who are caught! republicans really dropped the ball by not fighting this one.
yes!
Will they be able to vote while still incarcerated ?
(if so, this sets a new bar for insanity)
Trump won with 306 electoral votes. Even without Florida’s 29 Electoral votes, he would have still the 2016 election with 277 EVs.
Not all of these felons are going to register and vote. The vast majority of them are going to sit on their backsides and/or are going to reoffend and regain felon status. You can’t be on probation, serving an active sentence or on parole and have your rights restored.
I don’t think felons really vote.
So we CAN win without Florida if necessary. Thank you! I note that we held the governorship in Ohio.
I don’t know, but I don’t think so.
Child molesters and murderers are omitted from this change ....I also believe there is a time period that has to pass in order for your BASIC right to be able to vote is restored . Three quarters of our elected officials would be felons if laws were actually enforced , so I am in favor of this. How long can you punish someone after they have done there time? Florida is a BIG prison business state don’t fool yourself . within the Pinellas and Hillsborough county areas they even do sweeps of homeless if head counts within local jails gets low....I had lived there for a few years .” Arrive on vacation , leave on probation “ its more than just a joke in Florida!
Sorry, grasshopper, but the ends do not justify the means.
If someone has paid their debt to society, the right to vote should be restored, else their debt is repaid in name only.
Hmm, why are murderers and sex offenders excluded? Aren’t all felons equal before the law? Does the law have a requirement for a certain period of time since your last felony? Like others have mentioned, most felons might only be free to vote during the short interval before there next conviction. The felon vote may be a tough vote to capture as it were.
But before becoming an educator, I was a State Parole Officer. I wouldn't worry about their votes. Too stupid. Less likely to vote than to hang around outside the voting place and steal cars.
Are Liberals Bigger Drug Users?
https://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/Liberals-Drug-use/2008/06/16/id/324135/
No.
Trump won with 306 electoral votes. Even without Florida’s 29 Electoral votes, he would have still the 2016 election with 277 EVs.
Not all of these felons are going to register and vote. The vast majority of them are going to sit on their backsides and/or are going to reoffend and regain felon status. You can’t be on probation, serving an active sentence or on parole and have your rights restored.
seriously?
You're willing to write off florida because we might win without it? do you know who most of the prison population is and who they're likely to vote for?
this is some of the most short-sighted thinking I've run across in a long time.
We own the Fl Supreme court now and the legislature so it can be stopped .
Call and write .
Whining here gets you no where .
Are you happy we won ?
People carry on here like we lost FL .
People are so negative here.
We won all FL offices .
Act not whine here .
Canada will see 900,000 new pot smokers under legalization, poll implies
https://globalnews.ca/news/2995390/canada-will-see-900000-new-pot-smokers-under-legalization-poll-implies/
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