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My Big Fear: Felons Turn Florida Blue Forever
vanity | 11-7-2018 | MrChips

Posted on 11/07/2018 1:13:14 PM PST by MrChips

As most of you know, Florida yesterday passed a State Constitutional Amendment that will allow up to 1.5 million felons to vote. Only murderers and sex offenders are excluded. And there is indeed a lot of variation in the severity of the crime. Some felons are hardened criminals, while others are just guilty of possessing a little cannabis. Still, as most of you also know, Republicans cannot (?) win the White House without Florida. Am I exaggerating to fear that we will never win a presidential election again?

Now, after doing a little research this morning, I learned that many states now allow felons to vote, although often on more restrictive terms than in Florida’s sweepingly inclusive Amendment. I also learned that not all felons necessarily vote Democrat. Nevertheless, some 7 out of 10 do vote Democrat, at least nationally.

And so, if just half (750,000) of Florida’s newly re-enfranchised felons vote, then 70% of those (525,000) might vote Democrat. Nevertheless, it breaks partially along racial lines, and Florida has a higher percentage of non-Blacks, with White felons tending to vote Republican, and Florida’s White and Hispanic felons combined are about 57% (427,500) of the total, with Blacks at 43%, (322,500). It is also true that close to 14% of Blacks voted Republican yesterday, remarkably so against a black candidate (Gillum), and that would lower the Democrat felon vote by approximately 45,000. But, let’s also assume that at least 50,000 Whites and Hispanics also could vote Democrat. That raises the bar.

So, on crunching numbers, one finds that if half of the felons vote, some 325,000 would likely go to the Democrat. Which means just as many would vote the other way. That is a best case scenario. Obviously, I am trying to reassure myself that this Amendment is not the end of the world. Still, even if my numbers are way off, it still seems true that the Democrat felon vote might well be no more than 100,000 votes greater than the Republican felon vote when all is said and done. Your thoughts? Are my numbers too optimistic?

Can we overcome 100,000? Both governor and senate races in Florida, yesterday, saw very narrow victories by Desantis and Scott. But, considering the fact that Desantis was a poor campaigner and Scott had to overcome a Florida legend for whom every elderly person in the state had voted several times, the narrowness of their victories is not surprising. And so, yes, we can overcome 100,000 . . . I hope and pray.


TOPICS: History
KEYWORDS: felons
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To: Morgana

Instead of writing them off, Maybe GOP should sponsor some job placement outreach programs for ex cons


21 posted on 11/07/2018 1:24:35 PM PST by rintintin
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To: MrChips

I have now known several felons. I don’t think any of them would have taken the time to vote. They are too concerned with other issues; getting high, getting thrown out of their rental, getting their car repossessed, making bail for their wife/husband. The list goes on. They are not the type to register unless it is done automatically.

I am sure that some quantity of them go on to lead productive lives. I only know one in that category now and it’s because he has two teenagers. (He still has a serious impulse control issue, but he is more adult about it than he was when he saw an opportunity and “took” it.)


22 posted on 11/07/2018 1:24:52 PM PST by Gen.Blather
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To: Gen.Blather

And the Dems with their hungry clipboards and registration cards know where they live.


23 posted on 11/07/2018 1:26:46 PM PST by MrChips ("To wisdom belongs the apprehension of eternal things." - St. Augustine)
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To: MrChips

huge mistake. felony recidivism in florida is 25% over three years, and that’s just the boogers who are caught! republicans really dropped the ball by not fighting this one.


24 posted on 11/07/2018 1:26:58 PM PST by 867V309 (Lock Her Up)
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To: rintintin

yes!


25 posted on 11/07/2018 1:27:19 PM PST by MrChips ("To wisdom belongs the apprehension of eternal things." - St. Augustine)
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To: MrChips

Will they be able to vote while still incarcerated ?

(if so, this sets a new bar for insanity)


26 posted on 11/07/2018 1:27:24 PM PST by A strike (Academia is almost as racist as Madison Avenue.)
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To: MrChips

Trump won with 306 electoral votes. Even without Florida’s 29 Electoral votes, he would have still the 2016 election with 277 EVs.

Not all of these felons are going to register and vote. The vast majority of them are going to sit on their backsides and/or are going to reoffend and regain felon status. You can’t be on probation, serving an active sentence or on parole and have your rights restored.


27 posted on 11/07/2018 1:27:49 PM PST by TexasGurl24
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To: MrChips

I don’t think felons really vote.


28 posted on 11/07/2018 1:28:05 PM PST by tje
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To: TexasGurl24

So we CAN win without Florida if necessary. Thank you! I note that we held the governorship in Ohio.


29 posted on 11/07/2018 1:28:49 PM PST by MrChips ("To wisdom belongs the apprehension of eternal things." - St. Augustine)
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To: A strike

I don’t know, but I don’t think so.


30 posted on 11/07/2018 1:30:35 PM PST by MrChips ("To wisdom belongs the apprehension of eternal things." - St. Augustine)
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To: MrChips

Child molesters and murderers are omitted from this change ....I also believe there is a time period that has to pass in order for your BASIC right to be able to vote is restored . Three quarters of our elected officials would be felons if laws were actually enforced , so I am in favor of this. How long can you punish someone after they have done there time? Florida is a BIG prison business state don’t fool yourself . within the Pinellas and Hillsborough county areas they even do sweeps of homeless if head counts within local jails gets low....I had lived there for a few years .” Arrive on vacation , leave on probation “ its more than just a joke in Florida!


31 posted on 11/07/2018 1:34:00 PM PST by mythenjoseph
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To: MrChips

Sorry, grasshopper, but the ends do not justify the means.
If someone has paid their debt to society, the right to vote should be restored, else their debt is repaid in name only.


32 posted on 11/07/2018 1:34:49 PM PST by sparklite2 (See more at Sparklite Times)
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To: MrChips

Hmm, why are murderers and sex offenders excluded? Aren’t all felons equal before the law? Does the law have a requirement for a certain period of time since your last felony? Like others have mentioned, most felons might only be free to vote during the short interval before there next conviction. The felon vote may be a tough vote to capture as it were.


33 posted on 11/07/2018 1:35:14 PM PST by throwback (The object of opening the mind, is as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid.)
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To: jeffc
After the debacle that was the 2000 election I have to agree. Flori-DUH and Flor-IDIOT seem to be an increasingly accurate description. I know, I have taught here for 30 years, now retiring. The kids are a direct reflection of the parents.

But before becoming an educator, I was a State Parole Officer. I wouldn't worry about their votes. Too stupid. Less likely to vote than to hang around outside the voting place and steal cars.

34 posted on 11/07/2018 1:37:42 PM PST by ExSoldier ("Terrorists: They hate you yesterday, today, and tomorrow. End it, no more tomorrows for them!)
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To: MrChips

Are Liberals Bigger Drug Users?
https://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/Liberals-Drug-use/2008/06/16/id/324135/


35 posted on 11/07/2018 1:38:12 PM PST by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: A strike

No.


36 posted on 11/07/2018 1:38:20 PM PST by sparklite2 (See more at Sparklite Times)
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To: TexasGurl24


Trump won with 306 electoral votes. Even without Florida’s 29 Electoral votes, he would have still the 2016 election with 277 EVs.

Not all of these felons are going to register and vote. The vast majority of them are going to sit on their backsides and/or are going to reoffend and regain felon status. You can’t be on probation, serving an active sentence or on parole and have your rights restored.

seriously?

You're willing to write off florida because we might win without it? do you know who most of the prison population is and who they're likely to vote for?

this is some of the most short-sighted thinking I've run across in a long time.


37 posted on 11/07/2018 1:39:05 PM PST by 867V309 (Lock Her Up)
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To: MrChips
Desantis and Moody will be in control of any process and they can kill it or change it .

We own the Fl Supreme court now and the legislature so it can be stopped .
Call and write .
Whining here gets you no where .

Are you happy we won ?
People carry on here like we lost FL .
People are so negative here.

We won all FL offices .

Act not whine here .

38 posted on 11/07/2018 1:40:01 PM PST by ncalburt (Gop DC Globalists out themselves)
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To: MrChips

Canada will see 900,000 new pot smokers under legalization, poll implies
https://globalnews.ca/news/2995390/canada-will-see-900000-new-pot-smokers-under-legalization-poll-implies/


39 posted on 11/07/2018 1:40:38 PM PST by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: MrChips
Re. "Some felons are hardened criminals, while others are just guilty of possessing a little cannabis," BTW.

40 posted on 11/07/2018 1:41:38 PM PST by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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