Posted on 11/07/2018 1:13:14 PM PST by MrChips
As most of you know, Florida yesterday passed a State Constitutional Amendment that will allow up to 1.5 million felons to vote. Only murderers and sex offenders are excluded. And there is indeed a lot of variation in the severity of the crime. Some felons are hardened criminals, while others are just guilty of possessing a little cannabis. Still, as most of you also know, Republicans cannot (?) win the White House without Florida. Am I exaggerating to fear that we will never win a presidential election again?
Now, after doing a little research this morning, I learned that many states now allow felons to vote, although often on more restrictive terms than in Florida’s sweepingly inclusive Amendment. I also learned that not all felons necessarily vote Democrat. Nevertheless, some 7 out of 10 do vote Democrat, at least nationally.
And so, if just half (750,000) of Florida’s newly re-enfranchised felons vote, then 70% of those (525,000) might vote Democrat. Nevertheless, it breaks partially along racial lines, and Florida has a higher percentage of non-Blacks, with White felons tending to vote Republican, and Florida’s White and Hispanic felons combined are about 57% (427,500) of the total, with Blacks at 43%, (322,500). It is also true that close to 14% of Blacks voted Republican yesterday, remarkably so against a black candidate (Gillum), and that would lower the Democrat felon vote by approximately 45,000. But, let’s also assume that at least 50,000 Whites and Hispanics also could vote Democrat. That raises the bar.
So, on crunching numbers, one finds that if half of the felons vote, some 325,000 would likely go to the Democrat. Which means just as many would vote the other way. That is a best case scenario. Obviously, I am trying to reassure myself that this Amendment is not the end of the world. Still, even if my numbers are way off, it still seems true that the Democrat felon vote might well be no more than 100,000 votes greater than the Republican felon vote when all is said and done. Your thoughts? Are my numbers too optimistic?
Can we overcome 100,000? Both governor and senate races in Florida, yesterday, saw very narrow victories by Desantis and Scott. But, considering the fact that Desantis was a poor campaigner and Scott had to overcome a Florida legend for whom every elderly person in the state had voted several times, the narrowness of their victories is not surprising. And so, yes, we can overcome 100,000 . . . I hope and pray.
I agree that the majority of felons are apolitical.
I also agree with the premise that once you do your time, you should have your abilty to vote and bear arms restored (perhaps with the exception of certain political crimes or violent crimes).
Convicts are their own worst enemies, usually.
Same strategy as unlimited immigration, pad the voter roes with democrats.
Start with comparing New Yawk voter rolls. I am sure they will find plenty.
What a bizzare and rambling post. Who said that I was writing off Florida? The point of what I wrote was two-fold.
First, the original premise was that it was IMPOSSIBLE to win a Presidential election without Florida. That’s demonstrably false. 2016 is a perfect example.
Second, 19 other States have the exact same law that Florida has just enacted, including numerous swing States and Red States.
Guess what, they are still swing States and Red States in spite of said law.
I don’t particularly agree with the Amendment, but I’m sick and tired of prognosticators telling me that the sky is falling and automatically allocating votes based on this, when they don’t have any actual evidence that said prognostication is accurate.
Florida isn’t as purple as you might think. Yesterday was the perfect storm for Democrats, and if Florida was a true swing/purple State, Gullium and Nelson should have won.
They didn’t. Florida is trending right, not left.
As we learned in the case of the fake pipe bomb guy with the MAGA van, felons do vote in Florida, and for both parties.
There is no mechanism in place to prevent a felon from registering to vote, actually voting, and then having their vote counted. Did you have to submit to a police background check to vote? I didn't.
The threat of prosecution (which rarely happens) has been the only deterrent standing in the way of felons voting in Florida, or anywhere else.
A lot of people like to be CONCERNED.
The only FL rep that lost was Salazar who ran as a Never Trumper .
The Supervisors of Elections in each county are supposed to monitor their voter rolls to prevent and or remove any felons that are found.
Some are better at it than others.
But even with this new law, a judge has to okay the registration.
Now, how many ex-convicts do you think will actually go thru that process, especially if it has court costs and lawyer cost involved?..................
Why would felons even bother to vote? Do you think they were model citizens before they murdered, stole, raped and pillaged? I doubt it. Get a grip.
In the fwiw dept, the First lady and I voted no.
5.56mm
Maybe that travesty could be countered by not allowing NY snowbirds to vote there after voting in NY, etc.
Do you credit this legislation, and yesterday’s close races, to the influx of Puerto Ricans, along with the usual influx of NY liberals?
Just curious what has even allowed this legislation to be passed. TIA.
Hi.
Could be.
Other problems were the redistricting order by the FL Supremes.
5.56mm
You provided no evidence for your absurd claim, other than your pathetic and CONCERNED opinion.
Do you know what a “trend” is in politics? Florida has trended right since 2012 in Statewide elections.
That’s a demonstrable fact. It trended 0.30% more GOP in 2016 from 2012.
We don’t have a final count yet, compared to the national average vote, Florida trended further to the right than Texas.
You clearly don’t know what you are talking about, and you can’t provide any facts to support your “CONCERN.”
clearly you are unconcerned about the future of florida, or just oblivious. I bet on the latter.
Again, I provided facts and data. You are just “CONCERNED.”
....just like arizona and texas, florida is being flooded with leftists. it’s a shame you can’t see that.
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Well, I certainly see it.
I live in TX and am witnessing it, first hand.
Prayers up for AZ, TX and FL.
We need an immediate intervention.
I am in Florida, a Conservative, and I voted in favor of the amendment. I believe that once a person has served their sentence or (in the case of a murder conviction or felony sexual assault) has their civil rights restored they should have the same franchise rights as other citizens.
I don’t think using the argument (which may not be true) that they are likely to vote for Democrats is a valid reason to take away their franchise rights forever.
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