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Senate Update: Democrats’ Prospects Worsen In Nevada And Arizona
538.com ^ | October 17, 2018

Posted on 10/17/2018 11:02:45 AM PDT by SMGFan

If you’ve been following our Senate model for a while now — you should, everyone’s doing it — then you may have noticed a trend of late: Democrats’ chances of winning the chamber have been diminishing. (We’ve written about it a bit.) Races in red states such as Texas and Tennessee seem to be pulling away from Democrats, perhaps in predictable partisan form. But Democrats have problems elsewhere too: The races in Arizona and Nevada — a couple of contests that were once supposed to be easier seat pickups for Democrats — have tightened. In both states, Democrats had been hoping demographics and candidates well-suited to their political environments would help them edge up the party’s Senate margins. But things aren’t going entirely to plan.

First let’s look at Arizona. Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is running against Republican Rep. Martha McSally to fill Republican Sen. Jeff Flake’s seat. The classic version of FiveThirtyEight’s model currently gives Sinema a 3 in 5 chance of winning the seat. So, the Democrat is still favored, but polls from September routinely showed her up on McSally by anywhere from 2 to 7 percentage points. October polls have shown her lead dwindling. A new Siena College/New York Times survey conducted on Monday and Tuesday showed McSally leading by 3.8 points, while Democratic pollster Change Research showed the race essentially tied in a poll done Oct. 9-10.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Society
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To: 1Old Pro

Nevada is a hold as well.


21 posted on 10/17/2018 11:32:05 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: Conserv

Really LOATHE Sabbato.


22 posted on 10/17/2018 11:33:12 AM PDT by ZULU
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To: ZULU

These States are battleground states, so you expect close elections. Don’t be depressed if we keep winning.


23 posted on 10/17/2018 11:33:54 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: HamiltonJay

Not blowing Manchin out is a real loss.

Hope he is voted out. He is a total phony.


24 posted on 10/17/2018 11:34:32 AM PDT by ZULU
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To: SMGFan

Exactly!! These days before the election will be nerve wrecking....WE MUST KEEP THE HOUSE!!! If not MAGA will wither on the vine! PLEASE TAKE ALL THE PEOPLE YOU CAN TO VOTE!!! I promise you TEXAS IS SAFE we are doing our part!! NOW the ball is in Y’ALLS court!!! BRING IT HOME PATRIOTS !!!


25 posted on 10/17/2018 11:36:19 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: fortheDeclaration

So the article is about Dem chagrin as their hopes to pick up seats fade away.


26 posted on 10/17/2018 11:36:46 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: SMGFan

A vote for Democrats is a vote for Antifa. Just that simple.


27 posted on 10/17/2018 11:37:20 AM PDT by Midwesterner53
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To: HamiltonJay

. . . and I still think Manchin may switch parties, if he wins.


28 posted on 10/17/2018 11:38:54 AM PDT by MrChips ("To wisdom belongs the apprehension of eternal things." - St. Augustine)
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To: SMGFan

Off topic, but to make it easier for those who want to follow the Florida early vote, go to this website:
https://twitter.com/dataflorida Its a leftist twitter account, but they are keeping track of returned absentee ballots in real time.


29 posted on 10/17/2018 11:41:26 AM PDT by bort
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To: Kozy

The 40 number comes from Real Clear Politics Average which is always lagging. People use it because it’s a safe prediction. You can’t be criticized by using a RCP number.

I think that the current upper range is +30 which would given the Dems control of the House. The more likely number is about +10 - 15 seats for the Dems which would leave the GOP in control. My guess.


30 posted on 10/17/2018 11:42:24 AM PDT by centurion316
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To: fortheDeclaration

East Tennessee is a GOP area.


31 posted on 10/17/2018 12:07:23 PM PDT by tennmountainman ("Trust Sessions" Yeah Right)
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To: tennmountainman

To think the crazy lady from Ariz had a 3 in 6 chance of winning is beyond insane. She had a 3 and 5 chance of lot losing by more than 15 pts mcsally is ahead before 5 recent scandals and to think this doesn’t change the race by quite a bit is derelecion of duty by so called prognosticators


32 posted on 10/17/2018 12:16:18 PM PDT by genghis
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To: tennmountainman

Republican Dog Catchers treat red poodles better. Democrat dog catchers treat blue (dark gray) poodles better
33 posted on 10/17/2018 12:28:44 PM PDT by BigEdLB (BigEdLB, Russian BOT, At your service)
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To: 1Old Pro

NV would be a hold. Heller an incumbent


34 posted on 10/17/2018 1:33:13 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: tennmountainman

Thank you, good news!


35 posted on 10/17/2018 6:45:02 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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