Republican Dog Catchers treat red poodles better. Democrat dog catchers treat blue (dark gray) poodles better
Posted on 10/17/2018 11:02:45 AM PDT by SMGFan
If you’ve been following our Senate model for a while now — you should, everyone’s doing it — then you may have noticed a trend of late: Democrats’ chances of winning the chamber have been diminishing. (We’ve written about it a bit.) Races in red states such as Texas and Tennessee seem to be pulling away from Democrats, perhaps in predictable partisan form. But Democrats have problems elsewhere too: The races in Arizona and Nevada — a couple of contests that were once supposed to be easier seat pickups for Democrats — have tightened. In both states, Democrats had been hoping demographics and candidates well-suited to their political environments would help them edge up the party’s Senate margins. But things aren’t going entirely to plan.
First let’s look at Arizona. Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is running against Republican Rep. Martha McSally to fill Republican Sen. Jeff Flake’s seat. The classic version of FiveThirtyEight’s model currently gives Sinema a 3 in 5 chance of winning the seat. So, the Democrat is still favored, but polls from September routinely showed her up on McSally by anywhere from 2 to 7 percentage points. October polls have shown her lead dwindling. A new Siena College/New York Times survey conducted on Monday and Tuesday showed McSally leading by 3.8 points, while Democratic pollster Change Research showed the race essentially tied in a poll done Oct. 9-10.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Nevada is a hold as well.
Really LOATHE Sabbato.
These States are battleground states, so you expect close elections. Don’t be depressed if we keep winning.
Not blowing Manchin out is a real loss.
Hope he is voted out. He is a total phony.
Exactly!! These days before the election will be nerve wrecking....WE MUST KEEP THE HOUSE!!! If not MAGA will wither on the vine! PLEASE TAKE ALL THE PEOPLE YOU CAN TO VOTE!!! I promise you TEXAS IS SAFE we are doing our part!! NOW the ball is in Y’ALLS court!!! BRING IT HOME PATRIOTS !!!
So the article is about Dem chagrin as their hopes to pick up seats fade away.
A vote for Democrats is a vote for Antifa. Just that simple.
. . . and I still think Manchin may switch parties, if he wins.
Off topic, but to make it easier for those who want to follow the Florida early vote, go to this website:
https://twitter.com/dataflorida Its a leftist twitter account, but they are keeping track of returned absentee ballots in real time.
The 40 number comes from Real Clear Politics Average which is always lagging. People use it because it’s a safe prediction. You can’t be criticized by using a RCP number.
I think that the current upper range is +30 which would given the Dems control of the House. The more likely number is about +10 - 15 seats for the Dems which would leave the GOP in control. My guess.
East Tennessee is a GOP area.
To think the crazy lady from Ariz had a 3 in 6 chance of winning is beyond insane. She had a 3 and 5 chance of lot losing by more than 15 pts mcsally is ahead before 5 recent scandals and to think this doesn’t change the race by quite a bit is derelecion of duty by so called prognosticators
NV would be a hold. Heller an incumbent
Thank you, good news!
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