Posted on 10/11/2018 6:14:41 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
RealClearPolitics has 204 "safe" seats for the Democrats and 199 "safe" seats for the Republicans. They have 32 seats in the tossup category.
Based on a reasonable analysis, I predict Democrats win 8 and Republicans win 24.
The totals for the next Congress being, Democrats 212 and Republicans 223. Republicans lose a total of 18 seats from 2016 high.
Thanks! It’s nice to see something more encouraging than this.
2018 Midterm Power Rankings
https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018#
Globalist Fox is full of crap.
I really doubt the Wall Str bigwigs would tank the market on purpose. Somebody always wanting to make a buc.
Besides the market was due for a correction after climbing so high after Trump’s election.
And the Feds raising interest rate would do it.
Agreed on globalist. Looks like the Federal Reserve banksters have been pushing it, too. Hopefully, we’ll see that enough voters have figured the creeps out.
In the 50 top districts to control House Map each night Sean Hannity has NJ 2,7, 11 but this should be 3!
Each night he discussed briefly 10 seats. Haven’t seen Nj. Maybe Friday? And catch mistake
Fox’s numbers are similar actually. They have 208 safe Dem seats and 200 safe Rep seats with 27 tossup.
Most of the tossups from Fox overlap with the RealClearPolitics tossups. I think if I started with the Fox numbers, I’d come up with similar results (212 to 223)???
I agree with your assessment and your prediction, with possible exceptions for the two districts in MN, they are more likely to go D. We can certainly retain control of the House, but we can’t afford to make any mistakes along the way.
Good analysis...bump!
Yes, so true. When I get political calls of any kind, I hang up. I don’t trust any poll to be on the level. NRSC, RNC, and GOP Congress critter campaigns call all the time if you let them.
Cooperating just leads to more nuisance calls. I’ll vote for them but don’t want the calls.
“MN1 – Limited polling, but a partisan poll has Republican ahead by 14 (predicting REPUBLICAN)”
538 rates MN1 as lean Republican with 66% chance of winning. Cook PVi is R+5. Very limited polling for this district.
“MN8 – Limited polling. 538 analysis says Republican wins (predicting REPUBLICAN)”
538 rates MN8 as Tossup with the Republican having a 57% chance of winning. Cook PVi is R+4
Now, coincidentally, the NY Times is conducting a MN8 poll right now. So still another couple of days to be completed.
It is early in the poll, only 164 responses yet, but the Republican (Stauber) is ahead 54% to 29% !!!!!!!
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-mn08-3.html
Almost exactly where I have it.
You forgot the two AZ races, AZ1 now a possible flip, AZ8 likely a D flip, so a wash.
I’m stunned at the current MN8 poll (in progress)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-mn08-3.html
Probably 1/3 done with Stauber leading 55-28.
There has been a noticeable improvement in R polling numbers since Kavanaugh.
Last I saw, Lance was up and pretty safe.
My guys in MN-—and I have GOP sources both in southern and northern-—agree MN will get at least two flips for the Rs, maybe three.
They tell me DO NOT BELIEVE THE POLLING. High turnout helps GOP in MN and Housely can win there as well.
Just now hearing again from MN guys. Apparently the early vote in the Trump districts is “a record.”
RCP has AZ1 as Lean D and AZ8 as Likely R.
They aren’t currently in the tossup category.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.