Posted on 08/16/2018 2:57:23 PM PDT by CondoleezzaProtege
Trump administration officials have made thinly veiled calls for a military coup that would topple the Venezuelan dictatorship and pave the way for democracy.
But some well-respected academics are warning that a military coup would more likely produce a Russia or China-backed anti-American dictatorship.
Evan Ellis, a Latin America expert with the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute, and Brian Fonseca, a professor at Florida International University who has written extensively about the Venezuelan military, are among those who believe that a military coup in Venezuela would probably lead to a pro-Russian or pro-China regime, rather than to a pro-American one.
“The United States has not had ties with the Venezuelan military in nearly two decades, and Russia, China and Cuba have filled that space,” Fonseca told me. “The Russians and the Chinese have replaced the United States as a key partner to the Venezuelan military.”
Venezuelan military officers have been attending Russian and Chinese military schools for years, and Venezuela is the biggest buyer of Russian and Chinese military equipment. In addition, there are large numbers of Cuban advisers across the Venezuelan security apparatus, he said.
Both experts, with whom I talked separately in recent days, agree that it will be hard for Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro to cling to power for much longer, and that Venezuela’s sham May 20 election will not help him revert his economic and political troubles.
Venezuela’s economy has collapsed, and inflation is expected to reach 13,000 percent — the highest in the world — this year, according to International Monetary Fund estimates. The humanitarian crisis is worsening by the day, to the point that the minimum salary has fallen to $3.6 dollars a month — barely enough to buy two cans of tuna.
Oil production, which accounts for 90 percent of Venezuela’s income, has plummeted from 3.5 billion barrels twenty years ago to less than 1.5 billion barrels today. Five of the six oil refineries on Venezuelan territory are nearly paralyzed, and Venezuela’s creditors are starting to go after the country’s assets.
Amid this rapid descent into chaos, Russia and China — which have major oil investments in Venezuela - may have decided it’s time to change management to protect their interests, Ellis and Fonseca say.
The Trump Administration’s not-so-veiled calls for a coup in Venezuela could be an additional factor prompting Russia or China to step in. White House Senior Director for Latin America, Juan Cruz, recently called on the Venezuelan military “to respect the oath they took to perform their functions” and defend the Venezuelan constitution, rather than the Maduro dictatorship.
Fonseca told me that “Russia or China could sense that the United States is edging closer and closer to action in Venezuela, and that if a pro-U.S. regime comes to power, that could dilute their respective interests in Venezuela.”
Ellis, of the U.S. Army War College, says that a Russia and China-backed coup could help both countries get additional rights to exploit Venezuela’s oil fields. In exchange, China and Russia may offer new grace periods on Venezuela’s debts and technical assistance to revamp the country’s oil production.
“The Chinese and Russians would be running the oil fields, paying off the corrupt Venezuelan elites, and paying enough rent to keep the Venezuelan military happy, while extracting oil for their own strategic benefit,” Ellis told me. “That would assure them the continuation of a friendly regime in close proximity to U.S. shores.”
Ellis said that “the Russians and the Chinese would be running the country. And, as long as there were no Russian or Chinese military bases, there would be those in Washington who would say that it wouldn’t be a problem.” He added, “That would be a big mistake.”
My opinion: As Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis continues to worsen, nobody can rule out a new popular uprising or a military rebellion.
But after listening to Ellis and Fonseca, I’m not willing to bet that a military coup would necessarily bring about a restoration of democracy and a more U.S.-friendly government. It could could also produce a more efficiently-run Russian or Chinese economic protectorate.
Ole XI of red china, self proclaimed dictator for life.
Venezuela’s heavy oil needs to be upgraded before it can be exported, but at least three PDVSA upgraders are in terrible shape, and the Petropiar upgrader, which PDVSA runs jointly with Chevron, is offline for maintenance. That is also the site overseen by Chevron employees that were detained by Venezuelan security services a few months ago, putting a chill on operations.
Yeah, Chevron was not pleased at all. Hard to blame them.
Independent refiners from China are looking at heavy crude sources such as Mexico’s Maya, Colombia’s Castilla, and Canada’s Cold Lake Blend, according to S&P Global Platts.
The irony there, especially in the case of Castilla, is that these are some of the places the 25,000 oil workers displaced by Chavez and Maduro have ended up. One more in the long, long list of self-inflicted wounds.
Trump administration officials have made thinly veiled calls for a military coup that would topple the Venezuelan dictatorship and pave the way for democracy...
More nation building? How many billions would that cost?
...a military coup in Venezuela would probably lead to a pro-Russian or pro-China regime, rather than to a pro-American one.
Would make a nice american colony.
All that oil. We can put the natives to work, or send in our own and have the natives as domestic servants.
/sarc ()included for the sarcasm impaired)
What is the advice of Columbia? Of Brazil?
What do the Venezuleans in Miami want?
Columbia matters most.
Democracy? DEMOCRACY?
That’s what got these idiotic Venezuelans where they are in the first place.
The electorate is a bunch of ignorant, gullible gibs.
Anyone who is a thinking person has already fled. Only the dumbells are left.
On the eve of the Helsinki Summit, the President of Colombia tweeted:
“To contribute to the crisis in Venezuela I am asking President Trump to request Putin to stop supporting the Maduro regime,” Santos said.
Para contribuir a la solución de la crisis en Venezuela, le pido al presidente Trump @POTUS que le solicite a Putin dejar de apoyar al régimen de Maduro. — Juan Manuel Santos (@JuanManSantos) July 14, 2018
https://colombiareports.com/colombia-asks-trump-to-urge-end-of-russian-support-for-venezuela/
Anybody hear when the Monroe Doctrine expired?
Anybody hear when the Monroe Doctrine expired?
I would expect Colombia and Brazil do not want any part of having to occupy Venezuela (which they’ll be forced to do at some point if the situation continues to deteriorate).
The point I was attempting to make is that those neighbor nations might have opinions on how to go forward and if they favor some outside interference.
From what little I actually know, it would seem Columbia is receiving refugees fleeing the dictator. Fleeing to Columbia to get something to eat is a reality. (Fleeing to Miami to protect weaalth is also a reality I think)
One interesting possibility that comes up is the Monroe Doctrine. My gut tells me that President Trump will not permit Russia or China to take control of Venezuela. If Trump has the neighbors on his side he can act with strength beyond unilateral action.
The model is the Arab coalition developed to counter the destructive influence of Iran. The Arabs rolled out the red carpet and gold leaf furniture for the President in Riyadh. There could be a similar but perhaps less opulent Trump visit to Columbia for the announcement of a similar coalition. The situation will clarify after our elections in November.
People are saying the latest elections were fake. Here is what the Wikipedia writes:
“Because of this, the United Nations,[12][13] European Union,[14][15] the Organization of American States, the Lima Group[16] and countries such as Australia and the United States have rejected the electoral process.[17][18] However, countries such as China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Syria, Turkey and others have recognized the election result.”
His REAL name is Nicholas Manure-o.
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