Powell seems to be MIA - he is the new Fed Chair...he should grab a microphone and make himself known and be a somewhat calming force.
Cramer, the idiot, blames solely new investors - what a kook and a tool.
Deep State is truly working with the Soroses, Rothchild types and will continue to wreak havoc around Trump's tax cut timing...I see this continuing for a while.
Any thoughts out there and how to stop it?
A number of factors. Easy to list in arrears, but this was not entirely unpredictable, other than timing.
If you observe the AAII survey of market participants, large numbers of “retail” investors have, after being out of the market, decided that it was opportune to get back into the market after it began making all time highs. This is utterly normal market behavior: To punish the last to the party. When you read the news and hear as this glowing economic boomism, it is a very naive sort of view that the markets will not view this as inflationary.
Perhaps the most salient factor is the behavior of the bond market which, after a decade of near zero rates, now sees rising rates, and ominously, wage gains. The wage gains now being seen are reminiscent of the wage inflation last seen during the 70’s. Markets do not like that. Markets “do” like the tax plan passed recently, but the market has largely absorbed that impact especially considering the meteoric rise since the election of DJT.
There is considerable instability in the government which appears to be coming to a head in the recent Russia developments and the “change in the story” which up until recently has maybe gotten some conspiracy types (like us) going, but now looks like it might generate some serious upheaval. Markets do not like this kind of instability.
So those are some factors that I see. The market is very concerned about the very bad behavior of the bond market. This looks like a change in regime over conditions that have existed for about a decade, so it is not, or should not be considered “subtle”.
Finally, forget not that the market has gone about a decade without more than a single 10% correction. That is very unusual. And, at all time highs, a 4 or 5 or 6% correction (of the type the books tell you is “normal”) is a helluva lot more DJIA points than it was 3000 DJIA points ago. For the past 39 times, it has been right to buy any dip. If you did that, you have NEVER been wrong in the past decade. Any “mistake” you made was fixed in about ten days. The market has grown very complacent about this kind of behavior.
I do not think we are entering some kind of bear market, but it is not impossible. What *is* impossible
While there is good fundamentals that can explain the current stock market drops - by most historical P/E ratio analysis it has been entering bubble territory - which, if that were the cause would be satisfying enough.
But why now, at this time, is a different question, when many have been arguing, on a fundamental values basis. that there ought to be a correction for over a year.
I suspect the timing could be a combination of federal reserve and similar fundamental economic news, along with puts & calls for/against derivative type instruments & index funds; both of which signal buys and/or sales based on robotic algorithms not human decisions.
First off, Cramer basically ran a boiler room operation a couple decades ago. The guy is a crook and it amazes me he has a show on Bloomberg. I don’t trust either Bloomberg or CNBC, as I see their role as distributing money from the outsiders to the insiders (Wall Street).
I also generally regard the markets these days little better than Las Vegas. They seem to have no relation whatsoever to economic reality.
So everything is going great right now. Less people taking unemployment and great employment numbers. Everything is going in the right direction in the economy and only something really stupid, like the Fed seriously raising rates, is going to be a threat.
As for the market, I am loathe to say we are in anything more than a medium term correction. I would not bet against the POTUS the US has. I do think the market is vastly over value so I likely wouldn’t invest in it either.
Just to take one stock, Netflix, was trading at about $120 a share at the end of 2016, after Trump was elected. Now, after a disaster week in the stock market, Netflix is at the bottom, at $250 a share. Boy, Trump has tanked the market.
“Deep State is truly working with the Soroses, Rothchild types and will continue to wreak havoc around Trump’s tax cut timing...I see this continuing for a while.”
As a stock market investor since the early 1970s, I have suspected since last week when the market first began this rapid decline that the one item you posted (shown above) could well be what is happening. Soros and his cohorts would like nothing better than to make Trump look bad by ordinary folks being subjected to drops in their portfolios. Also, it would take attention away from the scandals now coming out which will likely have a huge negative impact on the Dem party.
While some may think the above is absurd, I want to remind folks that quite a few years ago, Soros single handedly almost destroyed the British Pound.
Occam’s razor:
1-—The Dow went up 8000 points last year without any significant correction, that’s never happened before. We were due for a correction.
2-—The Fed raised interest rates 3 times in one year, which makes bonds seem more attractive and secure than stocks.
3-—Congress (@holes as usual) is going to be doing some massive deficit spending, and the government is going to flood the market with government bonds—and the bonds will seem safer and more secure than the stock market.
4-—Cramer is partially right about panicking new stock market investors. They held back last year and then finally jumped in late in the year because it seemed nothing would stop the market from roaring ahead. Then the correction started to kick in and a lot of them are in full panic mode. My brother in law is this kind of investor. He thinks he can time the market and he always buys high and sells low LOL.
Now that the Russian narrative has failed.
The Deep State is playing it’s next card to wreck the economy or President Trump’s #1 thing going for him.
You have to get into understanding how the Central Banking system also known Fraction Reserve Banking works to better understand what is happening.
To save you a lot of time and not going down that rabbit hole. The Stock Market is totally rigged. The Globalists/Establishment/Deep State/Centralist are pissed at President Trump and now they are trying to destroy the economy.
There is no reason for the market to be crashing right now because the economic news has been OUTSTANDING. You mentioned Janet Yellen being replaced on Monday and THAT is a part of it. Yellen was a Globalist stooge.
Keep in mind too. When there was a mass market sell off during both Obama and Bush. The very same Central Banks froze the sell off for the day and then resumed it the next, but pumped money into the economy. Don’t forget about Tarp, Quantum Easing I, II and unlimited during the Obama Administration.
To go back to your original question. YES the market is being manipulated. It’s one of the last cards to play in the for the demons deck. I just hope POTUS is making adjustments ASAP to stop this manipulation.
Mark my words...it’s controlled algorithms.
What goes up must come down
DJIA:
NOV 21, 2014: 17,810
NOV 27, 2015: 17,799 (-0.06% over the previous year, Obama's New Normal)
NOV 04, 2016: 17,888 (+0.52% over the previous year, Obama's New Normal)
NOV 08, 2016 - Donald Trump elected President...
NOV 24, 2017: 23,558 (+31.6% over the previous year, since Trump's election)
FEB 08, 2018: 23,860 (still higher than the massive 31.6% gain since Trump's election)
It's a correction. They happen. Don't let the media talk us back down into Obama's "New Normal". 26,000 was pretty, and it will be back.
I saw a big, red blurb at the Drudge Report that was written to spread panic. Checked the Dow right then, and it showed a little over 300 points down. No big deal.
Other publications that appeal to Democrats also published headlines written to make readers hysterical. The Dow dropped after the hysteria was pushed by the media.
It’s an anti-Trump push. It shouldn’t go very far, but how far depends on how much money the shorters of socialism have and how much the media can push the panic.
If the markets continue to fall for long, the Democrats might be successful at getting majorities in Congress this year and impeaching the President. That’s what’s going on.
I suspect that it’s mostly investment managers who have many government office and big corporate office employees as clients. Remember how they were allowed to push oil markets a few years ago before being discovered and checked?
It’s up to conservative investors to either hold fast or give in to the hysteria.
I’m not qualified to give financial advice and am not intending to do so, but the study over the past 15 years or so of economic history and effects on politics of nations has been fascinating at times.
The Fed pumped a trillion dollars a year of “quantitative easing” into the market and did not raise interest rates during the entire duration of the Hussein regime.
Now that Trump is in office they turned off the QE spigot and cranked up the interest rates.
Any questions?
Maybe this will help. Consumer spending and business revenues have been higher through a period that is usually a lull. Unemployment is also low. Granted, markets rode unnaturally high for years before the real optimism of the Trump presidency.
The real economy is something for investors to be happy about (good new tax law, new business, more activity). What they do with it while investing is up to them.
The Dow future is up 101 points, but it’s very early in the night’s trading. Maybe check it first thing in the morning—that and the Asian markets.
Wall Street got tired of winning.
Deep state. Too much winning for POTUS Trump - tax cuts, memos zeroing in on Dems and announcing a Military Parade. Just how much can the Deep State take? So we have a big market crash up and down for a while.
It’s really not that complicated. Look at the linked chart. See that first peak? That’s the dot.com bubble. The second peak is the housing bubble. Now, see that HUGE bubble we are currently in? That is the EVERYTHING bubble that the Fed has blown. God help us.
http://www.fedprimerate.com/s-and-p-500-index-history-chart.htm
Scarcity is hard to find.
This is the best advice I have seen.
Art Cashin knows market mechanics and behavior.
In his opinion the market is trying to find a bottom.
Take a deep breath. The market will need to drop another 5500 points to reach a 15 month low.
Please watch:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/art-cashin-in-my-50-years-experience-stock-market-is-bottoming-out.html