Posted on 12/14/2017 10:37:10 PM PST by Oshkalaboomboom
The past two months of electoral losses for the Trump GOP feel very familiar.
Newly elected president Barack Obama’s party lost off-year gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and suffered a stunning upset in a Senate race it had no business losing, in Massachusetts. Trump’s party lost off-year gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and suffered a stunning upset in a Senate race it had no business losing, in Alabama.
We don’t know if Trump will experience a midterm shellacking on par with Obama’s in 2010, or, getting more speculative, go on to win reelection anyway. But every indication is that Obama and Trump are similar in that their modes of operating work much better for them than their parties.
Both pioneered a different way of doing presidential politics, and built a new coalition for victory. But no one could replicate Obama’s model, and so far, no one has shown any signs of successfully adapting to, let alone copying, Trump’s.
Other Democrats didn’t have Obama’s personal magnetism, or ability to present garden-variety liberal positions as a middle way born of excruciating thoughtfulness. They weren’t bonded to the base, and capable of turning it out in record numbers. They weren’t running elections nationwide where the so-called coalition of the ascendant could truly make its electoral presence felt.
As a result, the only Democrat left standing after the Obama years was Obama himself. Trump could be creating a similar dynamic.
His behavior is designed to make the other side fear and hate him as much as possible. The president finds this entertaining, and it has the added advantage of convincing his voters that, whatever his other flaws, Trump has “the right enemies.”
The problem is that all the people stirred up into a lather of anti-Trump loathing might want to do something with all their pent-up energy — like vote. With Trump nowhere near a ballot for the next three years, the only alternative is to take it out on the nearest person with an “R” next to his name
Ed Gillespie ran away from Trump and lost in Virginia. Roy Moore ran toward Trump (with a lot of excess baggage) and lost in Alabama. One was a wonky establishment Republican careful to sand away any hard edges in his political persona; the other was an obstreperous and ignorant insurgent Republican who prided himself on his outrageousness. It didn’t matter.
They both were defeated the same way, holding their own Republican voters, but getting overwhelmed by a tide of millennials, suburbanites, and minorities motivated by their abiding animus toward Trump.
The backlash that conventional wisdom thought Trump would create among these voters in 2016, to his own detriment, is coming about in 2017, to the detriment of his fellow Republicans. They can’t rely on the circumstances or the personal qualities that helped Trump get over the top last year.
They don’t have the luxury of losing the popular vote and still winning elections. They don’t have the advantage of running against a historically bad candidate in Hillary Clinton. They don’t have Trump’s star power, brazen self-confidence, knack for diminishing opponents, innate sense for culture war politics, and dominance of and understanding of the media.
This gets to the idiocy of Steve Bannon’s project to try to run Trump-like insurgents everywhere. Bannon is trying to recapture the magic of 2016, without the one indispensable ingredient — Trump himself.
Trump, too, labors under an unrealistic view of the meaning of 2016. Just because he won the presidency when he had an approval rating in the 30s, it doesn’t mean it’s a good idea to stay in the 30s. In the Alabama exit polls, Trump’s approval rating was 48 percent; if it had been 51 percent, it might have been enough for Moore to win.
With the right opponent and the right conditions in 2020, Trump may be able to win reelection — after his party gets decimated underneath him. We’ve seen this movie before.
But, we can hope, can't we, Rich?
Asshole.
This guy is a bozo.
The Republicans pick up 4-6 seats in November. Bank on it.
Oh and some of the maintained seats will not be Corker or Flake and McCain is replaced by a Doug Ducey appointee.
The Democrats have almost no money in their coffers and without Mitch the Moron killing off the competition they have little chance of not loosing many seats and they know it.
As for the house. There are virtually no competitive seats left for Democrats. Most have been Gerrymandered into comfortable Republican seats for the taking. That is what happens when 2/3rds of all state offices and governorships are held by Republicans.
Thanks again Obama.
What a terribly Rosy and naive analysis considering today’s election. You are really fail to take into account that Republicans do not want to hold on to the house or Senate. They want Trump’s ideas to die a slow death and they’ll also want him impeached and they don’t want to have to be the majority to vote on that
Rich Kiwry
A forever Never Trumper doing analysis ......
Let the games begin.
The swamp is pushing back pretty hard, our side needs to learn how to help our president.
I see the problem as that the swamp is too focused on eliminating Trump.
They need to fear the people more and realize that he can be replaced and the the so called Trump agenda does not go away.
It is our agenda.
r
Unfortunately, we do know the GOPe and their K Street donors are going to leave MAGA Republicans high and dry in 2018. At this point I doubt they will even go all in to unseat Democrats like Tester and McCaskill.
Thats more like it.
All this hand wringing is pointless.
Never Trumper Lowery naturally leaves out the critical fact that Moore would have easily won had the GOPe not aggressively campaigned against him.
But Bannon was defeated by GOPe swamp in Alobama.
Gee, we should just surrender then by golly!
Swamp did it to Moore(Bannon) in Alobama. It’s a warning.If Trump doesn’t give up “drain the swamp”, GOPe will do it to him in midterm election.
I’m all for primary-ing the swamp creatures. And I’d much rather have Bannon on my side than against me.
That said, I hope Bannon will learn from this. A little more vetting would have gone a long way.
The loss of this Senate seat complicates MAGA to no end....
I don’t think vetting was the problem. Moore would have voted for the MAGA agenda. Moore stands firm in his beliefs.
Nothing Rosie about it. It is simple fact.
The Democrats can not launch an effective front on enough vulnerable Republican seats as there are almost no vulnerable Republican seats this cycle. At least not in the Senate. There are however, close to a dozen vulnerable Democrat seats in this cycle. 34 are up for reelection in the senate, of which 23 are held by Democrats. @ by Independents that caucus with Democrats and a special election to replace: Al Franken.
10 of the seats the Democrats must protect are in states that Trump won. Many by double digits. Even more are in states run almost exclusively by Republicans. Republicans who have been quickly and studiously purging the Dead and fake voters from the voting rolls. Oh Boy no dead voters for the Democrats.
At least 10 Democrat seats are very vulnerable with highly proficient candidates and strong GOTV efforts and fully funded candidates.
Possible Democrat Pick ups: 0-2
Possible Republican pick ups: 10-12
Likely Democrat pickups: 0
Likely Republican pick ups: 4
The following Democrats are in serious trouble.
1) Sherrod Brown Ohio Loser
2) Joe Donnelly Indiana Loser
3) Heidi Heitkamp North Dakota Loser
4) Joe Manchin West Virginia Party change or new career
5) John Tester Montana Loser
6) Bob Casey, PA has his fake Conservative Democrat crap run its’ course? Maybe so.
7) Dean Heller, NV Leen victory
8) Tammy Baldwin, WI If Kleefisch runs she might unseat this one.
9) Claire McCaskill, MO She won’t get the benefit of running against Todd Aiken this time.
10) Bill Nelson, FL: I thought he was dead! Not yet, but there is still hope. Rick Scott may want to be a senator. Or Nelson could die.
So where am I wrong?
This isn’t looney Roy Moore running in every state with Pedophile wrapped around his neck. The Democrats have known for months that they have no hope of picking up the Senate. More importantly their donors know. That is why they don’t have any money.
As for the House. Not enough seats change hands in off year elections to give the Dems even much of a chance to pick up enough seats t control the House.
If the tax bill goes through add trying to run against a group that has given the American people its’ first half of 5% growth in almost 2 decades.
Why do you think they are pushing so hard to kill the tax cuts? Why do you think the Republicans like Rubio are pushing for higher Child Tax Credits? They know they will get them and they know what that is going to do to the economy.
Unless they come up with something better than Russia Russia Russia or Donny’s locker room talk and a bunch of used up street walkers talking about how he looked at them funny or felt them up in first class five decades ago. You can rest assured that We keep the House and gain in the Senate.
These guys want to give up. LOL
Moore was not as popular in AL as we were led to believe. His prior attempt for the governorship was lackluster.
Absent all the accusations, Moore probably would have won. But Jones now goes to the Senate because Moore never had anywhere near the +28% support that Trump had in AL.
Bannon’s agenda is the problem.
The very first text I received after the race was called for Jones said “the evil media won”.
It was a propaganda campaign against Moore. And it worked.
Are you kidding me? Trump is a rainmaker for the Republicans. They are having their best year in decades. They are flush with cash. The DNC is virtually bankrupt. They are laying off staff and closing offices all over the country.
The GOP Ground game is better than ever and Obama left the DNC in shambles. He kept all the money for himself, as did Clinton. Both have full blown political organizations with staff and full time fund raisers sucking the Democrat teet dry and leaving the party High and Dry.
Also a large percentage of their donors have abandoned them all together in the full knowledge that it is unlikely that they pick up either house in congress. It is most likely they Lose seats in the Senate.
For the love of God, look at the financials of both parties. Donors give to those in power, The Republicans are flush.
Also the state Republican parties are loaded for bear. They have serious heavy weight candidates in dozens of states.
You hear all the bitching about non issues from the Dems and Russia Russia Russia and Trump touched my bum ten years ago on a crowded elevator stories because the only hope they have is Mueller finding an unpaid Jay-Walking ticket for Trump form 30 years ago and getting him ousted on a process crime. Unfortunately for them, the only crimes that are being uncovered are Democrat crimes and misdeeds.
The Democrats are so f@cking lost they are talking about taking on Cruz in TX. HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA! HA!
God you people worry way too much.
You want to help Trump? You want to keep the House and Senate? Get off the computer and call into the Senate Switch Board and demand that your Senator vote for the tax bill! Tnhen do it again over and over and over. Call every Senate office TWICE and Every Republican Senate OFFICE five times. Remind them that you vote and that you will remember how they voted on this bill.
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