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Current Weak Solar Cycle Could Reduce Global Temperatures By Half A Degree
warrs up with that? ^ | March 31, 2017 | Anthony Watts

Posted on 04/01/2017 10:34:54 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

From ​the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)

Sun’s impact on climate change quantified for first time

A solar flare captured by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory – click for much larger image

For the first time, model calculations show a plausible way that fluctuations in solar activity could have a tangible impact on the climate. Studies funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation expect human-induced global warming to tail off slightly over the next few decades. A weaker sun could reduce temperatures by half a degree.

There is human-induced climate change, and there are natural climate fluctuations. One important factor in the unchanging rise and fall of the Earth’s temperature and its different cycles is the sun. As its activity varies, so does the intensity of the sunlight that reaches us. One of the key questions facing climate researchers is whether these fluctuations have any effect at all on the Earth’s climate. IPCC reports assume that recent solar activity is insignificant for climate change, and that the same will apply to activity in the near future.

Researchers from the Physical Meteorological Observatory Davos (PMOD), the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), ETH Zurich and the University of Bern are now qualifying this assumption. Their elaborate model calculations are supplying a robust estimate of the contribution that the sun is expected to make to temperature change in the next 100 years. For the first time, a significant effect is apparent. They expect the Earth’s temperature to fall by half a degree when solar activity reaches its next minimum.

According to project head Werner Schmutz, who is also Director of PMOD, this reduction in temperature is significant, even though it will do little to compensate for human-induced climate change. “We could win valuable time if solar activity declines and slows the pace of global warming a little. That might help us to deal with the consequences of climate change.” But this will be no more than borrowed time, warns Schmutz, since the next minimum will inevitably be followed by a maximum.

Strong fluctuations could explain past climate

At the end of March, the researchers working on the project will meet in Davos for a conference to discuss the final results. The project brought together various research institutions’ capabilities in terms of climate effect modelling. PMOD calculated what is known as “radiative forcing” taking account of particle as well as electromagnetic radiation, ETH Zurich worked out its further effects in the Earth’s atmosphere and the University of Bern investigated the interactions between the atmosphere and oceans.

The Swiss researchers assumed a greater fluctuation in the radiation striking the Earth than previous models had done. Schmutz is convinced that “this is the only way that we can understand the natural fluctuations in our climate over the last few millennia.” He says that other hypotheses, such as the effect of major volcanic eruptions, are less conclusive.

Exactly how the sun will behave over the next few years remains a matter of speculation, however, since appropriate data series have only been available for a few decades and they reveal no evidence of fluctuations during this time. “To that extent, our latest results are still a hypothesis,” says Schmutz, “and it remains difficult for solar physicists to predict the next cycle.” But since we have been observing a consistently strong phase since 1950, it is highly likely that we will experience another low point in 50 to 100 years’ time. It could be every bit as intense as the Maunder Minimum, which brought particularly cold weather during the 17th century.

Important historical data

The research project also placed great importance on the historical perspective. The Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Bern compared data series on past solar activity with other specific climatic conditions. People have been recording the number of sunspots, which correlates well with solar activity levels, for some three centuries now. However, it is much more difficult to quantify exactly how cold it was on Earth back then. “We know that the winters during the last minimum were very cold, at least in northern Europe,” says Schmutz. The researchers still have a fair amount of work to do before they have a detailed understanding of the relationship between solar activity and the global climate both in the past and in the future.

h/t to The GWPF



TOPICS: Astronomy; Conspiracy; Science; Weather
KEYWORDS: climatechange; fakescience; globalcooling; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
You know the really great thing is that climate experts can just go back and pull all the global freezing bullshiite articles and fear mongering from the seventies and recycle them. It's the wonder of climate change!
41 posted on 04/02/2017 11:01:55 AM PDT by Mastador1 (I'll take a bad dog over a good politician any day!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

The same morons that tell us globull warming is real are the same ones that claimed man-made CFCs were creating the ozone hole, yet, after banning CFCs that hole is still there bigger than ever.


42 posted on 04/02/2017 11:12:20 AM PDT by CodeToad (If it weren't for physics and law enforcement, I'd be unstoppable!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Catastrophic!

Oh, wait, this works against our #FakeScience claims of Glowbull Worming.

Never mind.

43 posted on 04/02/2017 12:55:00 PM PDT by TigersEye (President Trump is not a politician.)
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To: jonascord

The struggle between man-made CO2 and the sun will cause sea levels to whiplash violently back and forth eroding hundreds of miles inland killing billions species of precious biting, disease carrying insects and some small fish that can never be replaced!

Oh, the huge manatee! It will kill that too.


44 posted on 04/02/2017 12:59:31 PM PDT by TigersEye (President Trump is not a politician.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Your linkee no workee ... so here it is all fixee.

Living with a Capricious Star: What Drives the Solar Cycle?

45 posted on 04/02/2017 1:07:10 PM PDT by TigersEye (President Trump is not a politician.)
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To: PIF

I’m voting for global warming. Drowning the coastal libs beats having to shoot them...


46 posted on 04/02/2017 2:12:56 PM PDT by jonascord (First rule of the Dunning-Kruger Club is that you do not know you are in the Dunning-Kruger club.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; 11B40; A Balrog of Morgoth; A message; ACelt; Aeronaut; AFPhys; AlexW; ...
DOOMAGE!

Global Warming PING!

You have been pinged because of your interest in environmentalism, alarmist wackos, mainstream media doomsday hype, and other issues pertaining to global warming.

Freep-mail me to get on or off: Add me / Remove me

Please ping me to all note-worthy threads on global warming.

Global Warming on Free Republic here, here and here

Latest from Global Warming News Site

Latest from Greenie Watch

Latest from Real Climate

Latest from Climate Depot

47 posted on 04/02/2017 4:15:27 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (April 2006 Message from Dan: http://www.dansimmons.com/news/message/2006_04.htm)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

another crack in the wall of alarmist “consensus”


48 posted on 04/02/2017 4:37:00 PM PDT by Wuli
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
True or Not I love this graphic...

image001 copy 2

49 posted on 04/02/2017 8:23:24 PM PDT by tubebender
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

So, they are claiming this will wipe out .5C of the .8C rise, since 1880? 62.5% of their claimed increase will be gone?

Maybe I better invest in cold weather gear manufacturers!


50 posted on 04/02/2017 10:01:09 PM PDT by ApplegateRanch (Love me, love my guns!�)
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