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To: 1-Eagle
Only 2 of approximately 15 pollsters even finished within the fictional accuracy statistic called the "margin of error". This, alone, should show everyone that the "margin of error" is a fiction of the pollsters imagination. A propaganda tool to say "this poll is accurate within 4%" when no such thing is true.

There's nothing fictional about "margin of error". It's a real metric, based on the sample size and the total population.

But, in order for it to be correct, the sample has to be representative of the total population, and drawn randomly from the population. This is where polls fall short.

First, you don't even know what comprises the total population. Only about 6 out of 10 eligible voters actually vote, and you have to choose your sample from the voting population, excluding the non-voters.

Second: even if you could identify the voting population, it's difficult to sample them. Most refuse to participate. And, you have no way to determine if a participant is telling you the truth.

Third: our elections are easily manipulated. There is some dispute about how bad the problem is, but it's definitely more than zero. Over the years, there have been elections that were definitely stolen, but no one wants to admit that we missed some that couldn't be conclusively proven.

Your conclusion is basically correct: the polls shouldn't be believed. The pollsters pretend they are applying some kind of statistical methodology, but it's all snake oil.

If they get it right, it's a lucky accident.

17 posted on 10/18/2016 8:59:43 PM PDT by justlurking
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To: 1-Eagle

I Pay little attention to polls. We know Reuters was caught rigging a poll a while back, I think CNN was too. I suspect others as well.

What I look at is what is happening at rallies. Trump supporters turning out in droves, over 10,000 at mot of them recently, while Hillary is doing good to fill half a basketball court. How can Trump be within 5 points with a rally attendance discrepancy like that? According to that alone he should be polling 15 points ahead. At least.

Outside the rallies, Hillary’s puppets are doing everything they can to start violence, riots if possible.

Aside from rally events, Hillary is throwing everything against the wall she can think of, hoping something will stick. This tells me she is desperate, she knows she is sinking.

And what am I not seeing? All through the campaign, we’ve seen liberals trolling the comments sections of many news articles, spouting the usual drivel, recently I’m seeing less and less of that.

Back to polls though, in addition to rigged polls, I think none of them are accurate to begin with, due to the number of people who will not admit it but will vote for Trump.

So I’m paying less attention to the polls than aver.


25 posted on 10/18/2016 9:14:14 PM PDT by Paleo Pete (Proud to be a redneck deplorable)
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To: justlurking

when a poll exceeds its own “margin of error” by as much as 10% which happened in 1996 - the “margin of error” was nothing but a figment of the pollsters imagination. Clinton was said to be leading by more than 20% on more than one occasion during the summer but won by 8%. All poll data is manipulated, and I’m saying for a bag full of unmarked $$$$ you can get any numbers you want. Who pays for the poll and what results make them happy? Follow the money.


31 posted on 10/18/2016 9:44:16 PM PDT by 1-Eagle (B.Franklin: "A Republic...if you can keep it." Let us all resolve to be Keepers!)
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To: justlurking

Also people lie to pollsters. I’ve been polled three times since June, I lied every time.


35 posted on 10/18/2016 10:45:10 PM PDT by Mad Dawgg (If you're going to deny my 1st Amendment rights then I must proceed to the 2nd one...)
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To: justlurking

Maybe the polls are the narrative used by the elite to cover up massive voter fraud to get the results they want and to not have populations riot.


42 posted on 10/19/2016 4:02:54 AM PDT by A CA Guy (God Bless America, God Bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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