People of Mexico, where have you gone?

Mexico National Statistics Institute ^ | 9/1/2016 | Self

[Riflema]

Here's an interesting quick, "back of the envelope" calculation of how many Mexicans have emigrated from their beloved homeland.

Their government does maintain statistical records of births, deaths and overall population, which even an English speaker such as myself can find and download (link above).

Take a look at this table of births & deaths:

Year	Birth	death	net	Calculated Popn
1990	2,735,312	422,803	2,312,509	81,249,645
1991	2,756,447	411,131	2,345,316	83,594,961
1992	2,797,397	409,814	2,387,583	85,982,544
1993	2,839,686	416,335	2,423,351	88,405,895
1994	2,904,389	419,074	2,485,315	90,891,210
1995	2,750,444	430,278	2,320,166	93,211,376
1996	2,707,718	436,321	2,271,397	95,482,773
1997	2,698,425	440,437	2,257,988	97,740,761
1998	2,668,429	444,665	2,223,764	99,964,525
1999	2,769,089	443,950	2,325,139	102,289,664
2000	2,798,339	437,667	2,360,672	104,650,336
2001	2,767,610	443,127	2,324,483	106,974,819
2002	2,699,084	459,687	2,239,397	109,214,216
2003	2,655,894	472,140	2,183,754	111,397,970
2004	2,625,056	473,417	2,151,639	113,549,609
2005	2,567,906	495,240	2,072,666	115,622,275
2006	2,505,939	494,471	2,011,468	117,633,743
2007	2,655,083	514,420	2,140,663	119,774,406
2008	2,636,110	539,530	2,096,580	121,870,986
2009	2,577,214	564,673	2,012,541	123,883,527
2010	2,643,908	592,018	2,051,890	125,935,417
2011	2,586,287	590,693	1,995,594	127,931,011
2012	2,498,880	602,354	1,896,526	129,827,537
2013	2,478,889	623,599	1,855,290	131,682,827
2014	2,463,420	633,641	1,829,779	133,512,606

Now compare with their overall population counts through 2010:

1990	81,249,645
1995	91,158,290
2000	97,483,412
2005	103,263,388
2010	112,336,538

So, looking at 2010, their should have been 125m Mexicans over there, but they only counted 112m. So 13m have gone AWOL. I wonder where they went? I assume they have not emigrated to the greener pastures of Nicaragua, Guatemala etc.

And this is for Mexico alone. If I had the time, I could try and do the same for the rest of Latin and South America (Brazil anyone?). But you get the point:

That oft-quoted number of 11 million "living in the shadows" is total bunk as we all suspected. I would hazard the real number is somewhere between 15 and 30

[ckilmer]

They send increased fresh fruit and vegetables to us.
.............
Man the fresh vegetable business is going to change radically in the next ten years. There are vertical farms going up everywhere.

It won’t be long before the demand for vegetables that are flown north from california florida and points south is going to dry up.

[ckilmer]

But the Mexican land ownership system is so lousy that it is more to blame than NAFTA.
..............
What’s the relationship between land ownership, low US grain prices and the failure of small farmers in Mexico due to NAFTA.

[spintreebob]

In Mexico there is a major relationship between land ownership system and failure of small farmers.

Emphasis on the word small. An avocado farmer is not allowed to operate a farm of the ideal size for avocados considering cost of equipment, cost of financing, etc.
Same with almost every ag crop in Mexico.

The Trotsky loving revolution of 1917 is to blame for the re-distribution of land as a form of re-distribution of wealth.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Excellent research.

[ckilmer]

In Mexico there is a major relationship between land ownership system and failure of small farmers.

Emphasis on the word small. An avocado farmer is not allowed to operate a farm of the ideal size for avocados considering cost of equipment, cost of financing, etc.
Same with almost every ag crop in Mexico.
................
Avocados didn’t go into boom times for Mexico until the mid 90’s or about the same time as NAFTA came into force.

Actually the same problem with ideal farm size and equipment has been very relevant to the USA as well. The big 1000 acre plus midwestern grain farms just killed the 100 acre US eastern grain farmers after 1920 or so. (my fathers family in Pennsylvania was among this group.) From the 1950’s-1990 you see could dead barns all over the eastern US countryside. Then in the 1990’s the wood in the dead barns became very valuable for the “antique oak” and “antique chestnut” business. The old dead barns fast disappeared. There are lots of 100 acre farms in the east now but they do other kinds of work plus they specialize. Or the farmers have second jobs. Or like the Amish —they share machinery. Generally, they can’t compete head to head on grain with the midwestern farmers.

American small farmers have the right to buy more land but most can’t afford more land.

Is that the case with Mexican small farmers. They have the right to buy more land but of course— they can’t afford it. Or do you mean that that Mexican small farmers literally don’t have the right to buy more land.

[spintreebob]

Much of Mexico is like Chicago. There is the law. Then there is the political power. Business in Chicago can’t compete because there is a corruption tax/cost of doing business in bribes. The same in much of Mexico.